TECHNICAL AND STATISTICAL INDICATORS: Hidden Markov Model (HMM) , Standard Dev (SD), RSI, MA, Volatility, Volume
The traders interested in statistical trading (HMM in this study) could find some suggestions reading the book Hidden Markov Models in Finance, Rogemar S. M. J. Elliott.


Weekly VISION

The currency is graphically contemplated in a bullish dynamics with the HMM indicates a possible resistance area at around 134 Pips and a possible Support zone at - 118 Pips from the price value calculated at mercoledì 23 maggio 2018 12:00 . Indicators analysis identify a slightly bullish regime. SD is relatively coherent with a slightly bullish tendency.

Daily VISION

The D1 scale does not identify statistically a well consistent dynamics. The statistical indicators and the Cycle Markov analysis can lead to a possible bearish retracement with support at 44 Pips from the price value at (mercoledì 23 maggio 2018 14:00) . The MA(200) and the RSI are coherent with a possibility of buy regime. This analysis could lead to a possible indication of a % variation less than 1,1% with a no regime objective.

FORECAST EVALUATION

The Hidden Markov techniques are utilized to evaluate the dynamics in combination with the SD value and the analysis are indicated two possible forecast value.
The forecast value in the bullish is estimated at 129.2216.
The bearish cycle forecast is evalued at 126.977.
Figure 1 illustrate the W1 chart



Figure 2 specify the D1 scale chart



FORECAST
Considering the HMM, the key level price and the possible retracement it can be evaluated a forecast price level at 129.2216.
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