EURCHF have been driven by 2 important facts

1) 1.2000 SNB floor which in the last 20 months has acted like a magnet and strong support for the pair
2) Although the market looks like it has established a major Low swing point the price action and the history of EURCHF suggest otherwise and which is that we remain in the long term bearish trend as the Elliot Wave suggest we still have to make another low below the major low at 1.0066 for the 5 wave cycle to be complete.(see fig.1).

1.0066 low is just an extended 5 wave only to end the bigger cycle wave III. This extension suggest that we should see double retracement and consolidation

Although we violated the downside of the trend channel the price has come back within the channel and was trading inside the channel. This kind of price action are known as "throw-overs" which occur when price breaks out of the pattern on the side connecting the end points of sub waves 1 and 3, quickly reverses, and then moves back into the pattern.

Currently we're in an extended wave 4 for the last 20 month since SNB introduced the 1.20 peg to euro. Wave 4 looks like a dead man cardiogram who has just been resurrected from the dead. We can see the first heartbeat patterns which can be considered the first sign that the market is ready for the final move after it barely moved.

See in fig.2 further details of wave counts of wave number IV. Wave nr. IV is a corrective wave thus is formed by 3 wave, 2 impulsive and 1 corrective. We have just completed wave nr. 4 and the market is in the stage of developing the bigger wave cycle nr. V, which in turn should be formed by 5 wave of lesser degree. We are just at the inception of wave nr. 1 of lesser degree. For the next 2 months I'm expecting price to form wave nr. 2 of lesser degree of Bigger Cycle wave nr. V.

Translate to English Show original