I could talk about how IRS see EURGBP at 0.77, or Forwards see 0.88, but I'll stick to the chart technicals and it seems rather bearish to flat at this point.


We can see here the reaction since Carney has had his first press conference and the reaction has been impressive from the GBP, even if Carney wanted the exact opposite to occur. STIR futures now see a potential rate hike in 2015 Q1 and this is a vast shift from Q3 2016 that was previous.

Becuase of this the GP has been in demand as gilt yields trad at their highest in 2 years.



The daily chart shows a strong support level currently being traded around and this is a make or break level. If we head lower then 0.85 on a closing basis then we will almost certainly see 0.84 being hit. However as Goldman and BarCap have mentioned - with the taper being the main headline risk for FX markets they don't see much directional movement in EURGBP and expect to see it range bound for the foreseeable future and so a break lower than 0.84 is less likely.

For this reason I see 0.84 being a good equilibrium level for Bears over the coming 1 1/2 month.


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