The EUR has been one of the greatest beneficiaries of a weak dollar over the past few weeks, but it seems, as we run up toward the September Taper decision. Starting off by looking at a 1 hour chart we can see that the recent move to 1.34 acts as a great candidate for a swing top, we can see a strong supply zone ahead of 1.3418 (previous high) and the rising wedge upper trendline. Furthermore we can see that the EUR has come off quite substantially and is ultimately at quite an important level as I type.
After breaking the lower trendline of the wedge, it has tried (and currently failed) to retake this level and looks to reverse lower. This idea is supported with the daily levels as we can see below
The daily stochastics have topped out and are heading lower, combined with a failed attempt at a two year trendline suggests that we will revert to mean - which happens to be lower...
For this reason, I expect to see the EUR around 1.30 after seeing substantial volatilty imbetween now and October.