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NZD/CAD Short

Since the beginning of the year, the New Zealand Dollar has rallied 4.25% against the Canadian Dollar in a steady upwards channel, the majority of this analysis is centred partly around this rise, and how it may be coming to an end. With the NZD/CAD trading at 0.8570 when writing this, it represents an almost 10% rally since the last major swing low on the 4th of September. I believe that in the short term the exchange rate is partially overvalued and when looking at the 1st chart below I will …
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USDHKD analysis

The Hong Kong dollar has had a history of being a very manipulated currency with only a short period in the late 70's to early 80's where it was free-floating. However since 1983, the HKD has been pegged in one form or another to that USD at a rate of 7.80. It wasn't until 2005 that a banded region for the HKD was introduced. The range now stands at 7.75 - 7.85 and more often then not the HKMA - Hong Kong monetary authority has been protecting the appreciation of the HKD by selling at or around …
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EURDKK analysis

The Danish Krone trades with a 2.25% band against the EUR and has done so since the 80's, however in the last 12 months the EUR has appreciated firmly pushing the upper end of the band, while at the same time other scandi fx pairs such as EURNOK and EURSEK have been weaker with the marginally stronger Scandinavian nations being pseudo safe havens. However the recent rise has been uncharacteristic and is due to reverse towards a mean value around 7.4525. A long term chart (plain) can be seen belo…
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EUR/GBP consolidation

The EUR/GBP has been relatively quiet since the end of January, after experiencing a large ramp-up to 0.88. From here we have found ourselves in a tight trading range which consists a lower limit of 0.8400 and a high around 0.88. As a tight trading range, the longer we wait the greater the breakout will be. Considering this, I expect this summer to be farily quiet and that we will see a continuation of this consolidation with a mild bearish tendency. As shown here, price is forming a fairly size…
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NZDCAD analysis

The NZDCAD has been susceptible to the Emerging market sell-off and the weakening differentials between North america and China. Now I believe that this summer should bring low volatility and therefore we should see fewer sizeable moves. For this reason, and the slight yield spread between NZD and CAD should push the NZDCAD with an upward bias. I would recommend selling short straddle with expiration around the end of August / beginning of September with strike around 0.81 or 0.82.Here we can se…
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EURSEK

EURSEK has seen some volatile moves in recent weeks with problems most definetly emerging in the Scandinavian nations. With a tightening yield spread the EUR should see mild appreciated vs the SEK over the summer,On a daily chart it seems that there will be little movement, and once again a short straddle may be the best strategy to play the EURSEK over the next 6 weeks.Once again with technical indicators showing little movement we can expect to see a low volatility summer,We can however see th…
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AUDNZD analysis

AUDNZD has trended downwards for this year, but as we fall a very major bullish divergence is occurring, even though it broke down on friday, I'd still be looking at buying down here for a move higher. This divergence has the potential to move us towards 1.2 on the cross, but due to weakening yield differentials it may not have as much bullish potential as that.As we can see from this the AUDNZD has been depressed and is over due a move higher, which will come as volatility decreases.on H4, ther…
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EURUSD

We've seen a failed attempt to break a huge H&S attempt I expect now that the USD will weaken slightly and we will see the potential for a move to 1.32 by the end of the SummerAs we can see, we should stay within these two trend lines for the foreseeable future and with a light upward bias 1.32 is likely.A longer outlook appears to support this view for a move marginally higher as shown here.For these reasons I can expect the EURUSD to have a quiet summer but edge up slightly over the 6 weeks to…
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USDDKK

This pair shows a lot of potential for a move higher and has been in an up trend for a while, we could likely see a move to test resistance over the summer through weakening Scandinavian fundamentals.For a closer look we can see that the Stochastics support a low volatility summer and so we can expect that any move will have a slight upward bias over this time. For these reasons we can see that a move to 5.8 is entirely likely as we see what looks to be a boring summer of trading.
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AUDUSD long

As we stand now weekly stochastics signal the most oversold AUDUSD since 2004, well below the levels seen in 2008, RSI is at similar levels and recent CoT data has shown us that there are record shorts in the AUDUSD. For this reason getting long on a contrary play is my main trade for the summer months (and for the next two weeks while I'm on holiday).Here shows the weekly chart with very support candles and with Stochastics very smoothly signalling a move higher. Both previous oversold stochast…
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EURUSD

The EUR has been one of the greatest beneficiaries of a weak dollar over the past few weeks, but it seems, as we run up toward the September Taper decision. Starting off by looking at a 1 hour chart we can see that the recent move to 1.34 acts as a great candidate for a swing top, we can see a strong supply zone ahead of 1.3418 (previous high) and the rising wedge upper trendline. Furthermore we can see that the EUR has come off quite substantially and is ultimately at quite an important level a…
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USDCHF

The Swissy has been an interesting pair of late, taking a nice reaction of a long term trendline, however the CHF is undervalued - while it will be a strong candidate to short with Europe improving, I see the opposite occurring.There is a lot of resistance, and while we may see a move to 0.9425 (50% fib) it will likely be sold as investors fear growing volatility over the September period.Furthermore, if the Taper is put off until December the USD will get hit hard and head much, much lower with…
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AUDUSD

The Aussie has been the worst performer of 2013 as I write and really is due a move higher - Down over 11.8% YTD it is really oversold, It seems for now that we could see an Inverse H&S formation, but it may be to soon to call it. Like all FX pairs - a lot depends on the Taper decision as this will directly hit EM markets and the AUD will be hit as a proxy hedge to further declines in EM markets. This combined with the Quant view that the interest rate differential is playing a major part in the…
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EURGBP

I could talk about how IRS see EURGBP at 0.77, or Forwards see 0.88, but I'll stick to the chart technicals and it seems rather bearish to flat at this point.We can see here the reaction since Carney has had his first press conference and the reaction has been impressive from the GBP, even if Carney wanted the exact opposite to occur. STIR futures now see a potential rate hike in 2015 Q1 and this is a vast shift from Q3 2016 that was previous. Becuase of this the GP has been in demand as gilt yi…
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USDJPY

The JPY has been at the mercy of the US yields for the past few sessions, and this isn't going to change. The 10's and the USDJPY have been trading tick for tick and with the likely taper soon upon us the UST 10's are likely heading to 3%, this means the USDJPY will almost certainly be back above 100, and approaching previous highs.In the short term, and for the rest of August, $JPY should be well defined in a trading range under 100 as US yields struggle to break much higher.The daily chart is …
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EURUSD topping formation

The EURUSD has rallied significantly and has recently threatened the 1.3711 high. The pair found heavy selling up towards 1.3610 and a breach of 1.3646 would result in a move towards 1.3711. But currently we appear to be setting for a bearish H&S signalling that a top may be in soon.
As we can see here I shorted the pair up at 1.3580 and am looking for a move down to the previous major swing high at 1.3410.
A longer term daily chart would suggest that we've broken higher, but I somewhat disagree…
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NZDCAD

NZDCAD has had a very good run of late but is running into 15 year resistance and with very few non-USD catalysts it seems to have no reason to break on higher and thus the path of least resistance is very much to the downside.
We can see the triangle that is appearing here and as such I expect it to be capped and floored for the meantime at these levels.
A closer look shows how the market is seemingly overrun to the upside and due a correction.
The move has pushed us into a resistance zone, and…
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