Sometimes people look for complicated strategies on the basis that simple ones simply cannot be true. When this happens, the overdose of information that the trader looks for can result in analysis-paralysis. He is then so overloaded with expert advice that he does nothing.
Here is a simple strategy giving a good return. There is no need to be tied to the computer, just use a 15 minute chart and look at it from time to time.
Strategy Trigger
o       Trade between 8.00am and 5.00pm unless already in a trade.
o       Buy or sell when the candle on 15 minute chart crosses (and closes) the middle Bollinger Band.
o       MACD supports the direction of the candle.
o       Close when the candle again crosses (and closes) the middle Bollinger Band.
o       All spikes are to be ignored.
This is so simple and ignores masses of technical indicators but gives a great result.
During the period 10th January to 14th March 2012, 100 trades were taken and the results noted. The starting capital was €1,000 and the trade size was €50,000 in every trade.
                          Number         Result             Average         Result             Average
                        Of Trades    …
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jsch0810 avatar
jsch0810 23 5月

I very much like simple trading approaches. However, I tried to backtest this strategy for this month und there is a positive outcome (about +60 PIPS after spreads), but the drawdowns are quite significant. @Mosomoso: how did you calculate your 1428 PIPS from one week?? Seems to be a large number. @Gee: Could you please share some details on how you exit the running trades during the night and how you filter exactly with MACD? Thanks

Furian avatar
Furian 24 5月

usefull article. keep going. thanks for any support. +1

iskandar avatar
iskandar 25 5月

It only spans for three months. How can you be sure the results is sustainable?

lil avatar
lil 29 6月

what do you mean with "crosses (and **closes**)" ? a complete cross without bounce?

zambonidriver avatar

nice simple strategy , thank you ! Just wondering where did you put your SL


This article is a follow up to the earlier article entitled:
10 Psychological Obstacles to Success
The aim of trading is to trade in a logical, predictable manner with the minimum of emotional conflict. In general, most traders battle with their emotions. Emotions are located in the unconscious part of the mind; to overcome emotions, people need to either use willpower, or to retrain their unconscious mind.
Willpower (or self discipline) sounds like the logical course of action and can be quite successful in the short term. It requires conscious effort though, and this can be draining. Also, if a trader trades because he thinks it is fun, then being disciplined takes away that fun. Using willpower alone is therefore an unsuccessful way of changing a trader’s behaviour.
Changing the unconscious mind so that the emotional drives change is harder but much more successful. It is a bit like changing the operating system on a computer; it is hard going but the computer works so much better afterwards.
The biggest obstacles to successful trading are desperation, the allure of “big money”, impatience, a failure to plan and a belief that the market is conspiring against you.
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RobertBric avatar
RobertBric 15 5月

My experience with people (I have a certificate in hypnotherapy) in general is that they will NOT seek the help of a psychotherapist (apart from smoking, losing weight and similar) because this kind of implies that something is wrong with them psychologically which is not something anyone wants to admit. So people struggle with their inner world in turmoil which turns their outer world into turmoil. Traders are people therefore we can expect a similar behaviour. Your offer of help is a nice gesture. I am interested in the response of the traders. Good on you.

CASPI avatar
CASPI 16 5月

A good analysis. Good luck.

Mosomoso avatar
Mosomoso 17 5月

Interesting, really interesting. Do you take clients over the phone? Is it possible to "train" someone in this way to trade successfully?

Why is it that so many traders are successful with their demo account but are consistent failures with their live account? The answer is that even though market is the same and their tools are the same, their psychological state is different. 
As a qualified Psychotherapist now in the FX market, I have spent time looking into the psychological aspects of trading and how traders react differently in the real world.
 The steps to successful trading are:
1        Learn how to manage data, use graphs and risk management.
2        Understand the fundamentals and technicals.
3        Identify a trading strategy that provides a consistent profit.
4        Apply the strategy consistently in a demo account.
5        Apply the strategy consistently in a live account. 
Once a trader has a strategy that works, he must practice it enough times that he commits the strategy to his unconscious mind. It is like learning to drive a car, after a while, people drive a car without thinking about it. Using a trading strategy must be like that; a trader should use the same winning strategy over and over with the minimum conscious intervention.
Where it most frequently goes wrong is in the transition from…
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RobertBric avatar

Some psychological problems stem from bad preparation but some are really deep and come with upbringing. I am looking forward to the next article where you will address solutions to the highlighted problems. Anyone who has ever trade a live account knows how much these problems can hit you. Traders who trade for a living…they need to be really tough.
There isn’t much training around on psychology for trading. Here is a business opportunity for you if you want to pursue it. All the very best.

doctortyby avatar

We cannot trade "emotional free" because we are human, and not robots. :) Fear and Greed are the greatest factors of Trading Psychology but there are many other causes for the "Market Sentiment", the Risk On and Risk Off sentiment for investors and retail traders. This is a great subject, and maybe, just maybe traders are pre-programed to fail and they have to fight with themselves to succeed in this business. Keep it up.+1

scramble avatar
scramble 11 5月

i agree in many points, indeed well explained what a trader will encounter in his experience. will be interesting to know your point about possible ideas and possible solutions.
good luck

Mosomoso avatar
Mosomoso 17 5月

Hi Gee, you talk about a trader needing to trade a system like he were driving a car (autopilot). I seem incapable of this. I can't get past the excitement of the trade/profit and the crash of the loss. How do you get past this? Secondly, you, and most others, suggest you "need" a strategy. I take a trade when I see one that looks good, there is no particular strategy involved. Is the idea of a strategy just a way of calming the mind in order to trade more succesfully, or is it actually necessary to progress and become a professional trader?

alifari avatar
alifari 19 5月

The problem with amateur trader is they know their problems but fail to rectify their mistakes.