What is the Federal reserves plan? What is Janet Yellen thinking?
Ultimately, none of us know... We can try and predict, guess. But at the end of the day she will do what she does and we will have to react. This being said, it doesn't mean we can't have a game plan, and expect certain things.
This chart is from DBs Slok, and shows an expected route for the Fed.
Thus far, the March 6th print was strong, with Non-Farm payroll change coming in at 295k and last week we saw the word "patient" removed.
What was expected was that with "patient" removed, we should see a hike in the coming few months, and with Yellen also saying it won't be the April meeting, then we could only assume the June meeting.
Well we saw this, however it was far from the hawkish tone we were expecting, and subsequently we saw quite the move in the USD and US interest rates.
The dollar dropped an incredible 5% in just minutes.
On top of this, US 2 year yields dropped a huge 14bps
Now looking forward as per Deutsche, they expect the Fed to sit back and monitor the financial markets and data points to see whether or not there will be any irrational fears going into the 1st Hike. No so far there has bee…