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Introduction
I find it useful to look at the big picture from time to time. In technical analysis terms, that usually means inspection of weekly and/or monthly charts. However, I rarely get to see analysis of "ultra-high" timeframe charts, so I decided to make a couple of attempts of my own. Previously, I analysed long term charts of the Euro, the Yen, the Cable, the Swissie, the Loonie, the Aussie and the Kiwi.
Today I'll have a look at yearly and quarterly Yuan* charts that are covering the period from 1971 to 2015. While the yearly may be of some use for a quick overview of price action, the quarterly chart offers more detail and makes trends, ranges and patterns more clearly visible. I will be focusing on the latter for my analysis.
*I use the term Yuan (capital letter) to denote USD/CNY pair. Though, the below charts are actually composed using both USD/CNY daily data (1971 - 2012) and USD/CNH tick data (2012 - 2015). Please see the "Onshore and Offshore Renminbi" paragraphs below for an explanation regarding both pairs.
Yearly Chart
Quarterly Chart
Renminbi and yuan
Both terms are often used interchangeably to describe Chinese money but there is a distinc…
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BeautybyLesya avatar
BeautybyLesya 22 دسامبر

Great job!

VictoriaVika avatar
VictoriaVika 22 دسامبر

Good luck :)

WallStreet6 avatar
WallStreet6 28 دسامبر

Interesting, but I don't trade it

lelipuzik avatar
lelipuzik 31 دسامبر

nice work!)

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 5 ژانویه

Thanks to all for your great comments!

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7/66
رتبه
Introduction
I find it useful to look at the big picture from time to time. In technical analysis terms, that usually means inspection of weekly and/or monthly charts. However, I rarely get to see analysis of "ultra-high" timeframe charts, so I decided to make a couple of attempts of my own. Previously, I analysed long term charts of the Euro, the Yen, the Cable, the Swissie, the Loonie and the Aussie.
Today I'll have a look at yearly and quarterly Kiwi (NZD/USD) charts that are covering the period from 1971 to 2015. While the yearly may be of some use for a quick overview of price action, the quarterly chart offers more detail and makes trends, ranges and patterns more clearly visible. I will be focusing on the latter for my analysis.
Yearly Chart
Quarterly Chart
The Peg
A keen observer would have noted something very unusual about price action in the first couple of years. Volatility jumps from near zero level in one quarter to the level of ten or twenty cents in the next quarter and vice versa, several times. That's something that just doesn't happen in …
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Nadin5794 avatar
Nadin5794 13 دسامبر

я торгую эти пары и полностью с вами согласна

WallStreet6 avatar
WallStreet6 28 دسامبر

Interesting, thanks for the recommendation

lelipuzik avatar
lelipuzik 31 دسامبر

good job!)

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 5 ژانویه

WallStreet6 All disclaimers apply :)

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 5 ژانویه

Thanks to all for your great comments!

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13/66
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Introduction
I find it useful to look at the big picture from time to time. In technical analysis terms, that usually means inspection of weekly and/or monthly charts. However, I rarely get to see analysis of "ultra-high" timeframe charts, so I decided to make a couple of attempts of my own. Previously, I analysed long term charts of the Euro, the Yen, the Cable, the Swissie and the Loonie.
Today I'll have a look at yearly and quarterly Aussie charts that are covering the period from 1971 to 2015. While the yearly may be of some use for a quick overview of price action, the quarterly chart offers more detail and makes trends, ranges and patterns more clearly visible. I will be focusing on the latter for my analysis.
Yearly Chart
Quarterly Chart
The Peg
A keen observer would have noted something very unusual about price action in the first couple of years. Volatility jumps from near zero level in one quarter to the level of ten or twenty cents in the next quarter and vice versa, several times. That's something that just doesn't happen in liquid financial markets such as major currency pairs. Volatility may increase sharply when price breaks from a period of tigh…
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Olga18375 avatar
Olga18375 25 نوامبر

Good post!

Milian avatar
Milian 26 نوامبر

good article))

fxsurprise8 avatar
fxsurprise8 30 نوامبر

agree longterm more losses seem likely

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 3 دسامبر

fxsurprise8 Though the pair is holding up well in the face of all the headwinds. :)

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 3 دسامبر

Thanks to all for your great comments!

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15/66
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Introduction
I find it useful to look at the big picture from time to time. In technical analysis terms, that usually means inspection of weekly and/or monthly charts. However, I rarely get to see analysis of "ultra-high" timeframe charts, so I decided to make a couple of attempts of my own. Previously, I analysed long term charts of the Euro, the Yen, the Cable and the Swissie.
Today I'll have a look at yearly and quarterly Loonie charts that are covering the period from 1971 to 2015. While the yearly may be of some use for a quick overview of price action, the quarterly chart offers more detail and makes trends, ranges and patterns more easily observable. I will be focusing on the latter for my analysis.
Yearly Chart
Quarterly Chart
Broken Trendline
One of the first things that I noticed on the chart is the upward sloping channel that the pair traded in from 1971 to 2003. The channel bottom (trendline) was broken in 2004 and has been acting as a resistance since. It capped the pair in 2008 and 2009 and I expect it to continue to play that role, should the pair meet it in the future. The trendline is currently centered around 1.3750.
Fibonacci Retracements
I re…
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Milian avatar
Milian 1 دسامبر

Good article!

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 2 دسامبر

yellownight Thank you! I just started to write articles - I takes me plenty time to put together an article that I'm happy with but I guess I'll improve over time. Re Loonie: volatility in the pair has been great since oil started to slide.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 2 دسامبر

VictoriaVika Thank you very much!

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 2 دسامبر

fxsurprise8 Agreed :) And I don't think we have seen the bottom yet.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 2 دسامبر

Thanks to all for your great comments!

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11/66
رتبه
Introduction
I find it useful to look at the big picture from time to time. In technical analysis terms, that usually means inspection of weekly and/or monthly charts. However, I rarely get to see analysis of "ultra-high" timeframe charts, so I decided to make a couple of attempts of my own. Previously, I analysed long term charts of the Euro, the Yen and the Cable.
Today I'll have a look at yearly and quarterly Swissie charts that are covering the period from 1971 to 2015. While the yearly may be of some use for a quick overview of price action, the quarterly chart offers more detail and makes trends, ranges and patterns more easily observable. I will be focusing on the latter for my analysis.
Yearly Chart
Quarterly Chart
Downtrend and the Falling Wedge
During the period of the Bretton Woods System (1945 - 1971), Swiss franc was pegged to the U.S. dollar at a rate of 4.375 per dollar. After the system was abolished, franc started to appreciate or, in other words, the pair (USD/CHF) embarked on a downtrend. Even though both dollar and franc are considered safe haven currencies, stronger demand for the latter has also bee…
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fxsurprise8 avatar
fxsurprise8 30 نوامبر

yep SNB will follow the ECB down

Milian avatar
Milian 1 دسامبر

Good job!

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 2 دسامبر

pipx We'll see, both central banks are definitely able to surprise markets. :)

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 2 دسامبر

fxsurprise8 It appears so!

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 2 دسامبر

Thanks to all for your great comments!

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8/43
رتبه
Introduction
I find it useful to look at the big picture from time to time. In technical analysis terms, that usually means inspection of weekly and/or monthly charts. However, I rarely get to see analysis of "ultra-high" timeframe charts, so I decided to make a couple of attempts of my own. Previously, I analysed long term charts of the Euro and the Yen.
Today I'll have a look at yearly and quarterly Cable charts, covering the period from 1971 to 2015. While the yearly may be good for a quick overview of the price action, the quarterly chart offers more detail and makes trends, ranges and patterns more easily observable. I will be focusing on the latter for my analysis.
Yearly Chart
Quarterly Chart
The Character of the Pair
The thing that I find the most fascinating on this long term chart is that it pretty much captures the character of the pair that is known to me from trading it on lower timeframes. Long lasting trends with deep retracements; sharp rallies and sell-offs; extended ranges; and plenty of fake breakouts. Were time and price scales removed, I might not have been able to tell that it's not a daily (D1), not an intraday (H1) and not a London session price action (M5)…
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al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 31 اکتبر

Kivetat I'm of the same opinion!

foreignexchange avatar
foreignexchange 2 نوامبر

great article

KATRIN_90 avatar
KATRIN_90 5 نوامبر

ты молодец! хорошая статья)

VictoriaVika avatar
VictoriaVika 5 نوامبر

al_dcdemo , its insightful - very well done! A brilliant article. Inspiring! Many useful information, informative and helpful, also there are some useful tools introduced, thanks, Vika.

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26/43
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I find it useful to look at the big picture from time to time. In technical analysis terms that usually means inspection of weekly and/or monthly charts. However, I rarely get to see analysis of "ultra-high" timeframe charts, so I decided to make few attempts of my own. Last week I analysed long term charts of the Euro. Here's the link in case you missed it: https://www.dukascopy.com/fxcomm/fx-article-contest/?A-Long-Term-Technical-Look&action=read&id=2626.
Today, I'll have a look at yearly and quarterly Yen charts. Both are covering the period from 1971 to 2015. Since platform's historical data for this pair is currently available from 1986 only, I had to fill in the missing data manually. I've drawn the candles using "Short Line" chart objects.
Yearly chart:
Quarterly chart:
Following the end of the Bretton Woods System (1971), during which the value of yen was fixed at 360 per dollar, the pair embarked on a long term downtrend which lasted until 1995 (although one might argue that it still lasts). After that, the pair entered a wedge-like sideways consolidation but it did broke below 1995 low in the 2011-2012 period. The low was set near 75 and the pair turned back up from ther…
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Airmike avatar
Airmike 12 اکتبر

nice

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 13 اکتبر

To clarify the second paragraph of the article: there is no historical data missing and Dukascopy is one of few brokers that I came across that provides the data going that far in the past and that's more than enough in most cases. But I think it would be awesome to have (daily) historical data from 1971 on all the majors and the respective crosses.

Vitalinka_Pavlenko avatar
Vitalinka_Pavlenko 20 اکتبر

Interesting post! Well done! Good luck!

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 31 اکتبر

Thanks to all for your great comments!

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19/43
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I find it useful to look at the big picture once in a while. In technical analysis terms that usually means inspection of weekly and/or monthly charts. However, I rarely get to see analysis of "ultra-high" timeframe charts, so I though I'd attempt do it myself.
A yearly and a quarterly EUR/USD charts are displayed below. Both are covering the same period, from 1973* to 2015. I will be focusing on the quarterly chart because of its finer detail and inclusion of additional technical tools.
* You may be wondering how is this even possible because Euro didn't exist before 1999. That's true, but the preparations for a single currency union started well before that. In 1979, the ECU (European Currency Unit) was created as an artificial currency which was basically a composite index of national currencies in the European Monetary System (EMS). I suspect that the data before 1979 is calculated using the same index.
Yearly chart:
Quarterly chart:
First feature that really stands out is the ascending channel. The usual practice is that a channel bottom (trendline) needs to be defined first, by a low and a higher low, before a parallel channel top (channel-line) could be drawn. In this case,…
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al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 19 اکتبر

Olkiss70 Thank you!

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 19 اکتبر

FxMidaso Thanks! Long term historical data (from 1973) for this pair is readily available from Dukascopy. There's one caveat though: it seems that you have to select UTC day start time to see full data. Go to: "Tools -> Preferences -> Chart -> Day start time" and set it to "GMT (UTC)". Hope this helps.

Vitalinka_Pavlenko avatar
Vitalinka_Pavlenko 20 اکتبر

very good job! interesting!

anderspirlo avatar
anderspirlo 24 اکتبر

good work

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 31 اکتبر

Thanks to all for your great comments!

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