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In this article I want to share with you my thoughts on current situation and possible future developments of four major currency pairs : EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF and USDJPY.
It is crucial that you have read my previous article Trading The Levels Correctly. If you have not done so this may not make sense for you.
Markings used in this article are as follows :
Green ellipse with a letter ( no number ) means that this is a level from where everything basically starts. It is a level that has had a fake breakout in regards to it. Green ellipse with letter and number represents a fake breakout. Therefore A1 is a fake breakout of level A. Blue lines are support and the red ones are resistance levels.
Purple dashed lines represent round numbers that are or might be important to particular currency pair.
Rectangles are used just to draw more attention to the selected area.

There are two charts dedicated for each pair - monthly and weekly. Let's go ahead.
1.1.EURUSD Monthly chart
Direction of a pair is clearly bearish. Price has gone through the very strong level 1.2402 ( C ) with an impulsive move. This level served as a strong support for 8 years in conjunction wit…
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Julia_Zhulinskaya avatar

good info

bibo avatar
bibo 24 Oct.

good one

mcquak avatar
mcquak 28 Oct.

good analytics

Vlad73 avatar
Vlad73 2 Nov.

very good

Natasha888 avatar
Natasha888 10 Feb.


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In this article USDCHF will be analyzed both fundamentally and technically and as known nothing is impossible in Forex so different scenarios will be drawn to express about the most probable scenarios with the USDCHF.
What is affected the move of USDCHF nowadays:
Fundamental analysis:
USDCHF is affected now by two different policies by both The Swiss National Bank (SNB) and United States Federal Reserve (FED) and also affected strongly by The Swiss National Bank (SNB) intervention in Forex market which strongly hit CHF, finally CHF and other currencies is affected due to strong growth in US in the last months which make US$ to be favored.
  • Different policies by SNB and FED:

SNB intervened in Forex market several times, every time, it said that it will intervene if necessary to avoid any strong gains for CHF against currencies especially against EUR.
In different, US FED has just raised interest rate for the first time from ten years, FED delayed its first rate hike more than once in order to prevent broad US$ gains which may dampen US growth, this time rate hike is very near but if something horrible hit markets again, more rate hike may be delayed more.
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alias1980 avatar

khalidamassi you can work the analyst )

isomere avatar
isomere 10 Mar.

useful analysis, thank you.

Nihad avatar
Nihad 11 Mar.

Nice analysis Khaled, FED and SNB are apparently on policy divergence, but the actual state of the US economy will force the FED to policy converge not only with the SNB, but mainly with the ECB, BOJ and PBoC. Therefore, my humble opinion is that testing the 1030 is unlikely. However, it was nice reading your fundamental analysis for this pair. Good luck Bro

khalidamassi avatar

Thanks Nihad, I am very proud of your opinion, analysis for the near time, often changes takes much time to happen, may FED follow ECB and BOJ but when ???

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FOMC Introduction

Next week is going to be a big week for all the International investors and all the Forex traders around the world, as FED is considering for an Interest rate hike from 0.25% to 0.50%. It's along the wire for so many months since the start of 2015 but got delayed unexpectedly mainly because of the global economic breakdown caused by Chinese around mid of the year.
Amid economic slowdown all round the world, things started to recover from more fast for US and US economy shows better improvement from the global economic breakdown than all other currencies. Because of this, FED again started showing some hope of rate hike before 2015 end. Once the hope rises, US more important NFP reports started beating the forecast twice (271K, 211K) which poses more strong contention to increase the Interest rate. As US data are more supportive for a rate hike, 99% we will be witnessing a rate hike next week.
Now, the important question for all the traders would be when to go long on USD and which pairs to consider. My personal advice would be not to trade during such news event to avoid big heartbeats and tension. But at the same time, we can use this by being in the market well…
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tdbatinkov avatar
tdbatinkov 26 Dec.

I succeed in my deal and take +100p on EUR/USD

ijayakumar avatar
ijayakumar 26 Dec.

tdbatinkov : That's really great. Seems you nailed it at the right time!

wisdom_consultant avatar

good article!

ijayakumar avatar
ijayakumar 27 Dec.


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On the forecast results of year 2014 and the Forecast 2015
I think if a participantof the contest of articles in the community has made a forecast (and I have given a forecast for 2014 in respect of currency pairs), he needs to consider the results of his forecast by the end of the year.
That is actually the subject of this article, it will probably be not much interesting for the community, as it will be more like a report about what has been predicted and what has happened at the moment.
___________ ____________ _______________ ________________
At the beginning of year 2014 in my two articles, I have given a forecast for the currency pairs USDCHF in January and USDSGD in February 2014, watch Currency Classification-end of the Year-wiew at Usdchf and USD/SGD - Strategy and Tactics - Building Pyramid
Today, I would like to repeat about what I was guided by the construction of the forecast in respect of these currency pairs in 2014. Anyone who has read my articles in early 2014 will notice, I repeat, the one who reads my articles for the first time is sure to find useful information.
As well as to build a forecast for the coming 2015.
The basis for the forecast for 2…
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Olga18375 avatar

Согласна! Статья профессиональная и очень полезная будет для трейдеров!! Молодец!! И удачи тебе в конкурсах!

Agnessa26 avatar

Да очень хорошая информация

Natalia_Kisenko avatar

Good job!

Airmike avatar
Airmike 22 Feb.

good article

Skif avatar
Skif 5 Mar.

0.9688 Target one - achieved )))

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In the article submitted below

Currency classification after a year and how it can be used in the trading.

End of the year is a signal for the trading.

Wiew at USDCHF.

Currency classification after a year and how it can be used in the trading.
After having observed the movements of currencies in the Forex market, I came to the conclusion that currencies can be divided into four groups. I provide currency fluctuations for 2013.
Turtle currencies had the potential for significant fluctuations during the year but did not realize it. Due to various reasons, these are undervalued currencies.
Sprinter currencies possess the potential to surge in volatility during the year for a period of two to four months.
Outsider currencies disappointed the market participants and are under pressing now, the second category here is outsider currencies that had not chosen the direction throughout the year.
Leader currencies demonstrate unidirectional movement throughout the year.
Of course, that trend can change and the turtle will turn into a sprint, andthe outsider in
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heimdall avatar
heimdall 13 Jan.


PPandM avatar
PPandM 15 Jan.

well done! LIKE

Marenno avatar
Marenno 17 Jan.

Good Article!!!

bokafx avatar
bokafx 17 Jan.

Good work

olga avatar
olga 19 Jan.

great article!

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    "When market conditions change, I change my mind" (J. M. Keynes)      Greetings dear traders. Today we are going to make our usual analysis for 5 of the major pairs: Eur/Usd (Fiber), Gbp/Usd (Cable/Pound), Usd/Chf (Swiss Franc), Usd/Jpy (Jap. Yen) and Aud/Usd (Aussie). We will also try to cover some of the commonly market conditions for a trend.   To better understand a trend we have to start from the definition: The general direction of the market price for a certain trading instrument (currency pair, commodity, bond, stock).   If we want to identify a trend we have to look at the charts and see if we can find some simple signs:Higher Swing Lows and Higher Swing Highs for an Uptrend,Lower Swing Lows and Lower Swing Highs for a Downtrend.   Trends Classification:Major Trends (Primary Trends) - are ascending or descending trends, interrupted by corrections (Sell-offs in Uptrends and Rallies in Downtrends), last from several months to several years. Intermediate Trends - can develop in the direction of the Major Trend or in the opposite direction (in this case it is considered a correction), last from several weeks to several months.Minor Trends (Sell-Off or Rallies) …
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kkforex avatar
kkforex 22 May

I feel Aussie has broken the weekly trendline last week and this week it will test it at 0.9980 and then continue down till 0.9650 Also Euro and GBPJPY might test broken neckline on dailies this week. Nice analysis 1+

LinnuxFX avatar
LinnuxFX 22 May

Nice article, do you used it in webinar? Good Luck...

belman avatar
belman 25 May

Great rank and analisis, good and nice weekend to you +1

MyiDEA avatar
MyiDEA 28 May

good article....

egidijus avatar
egidijus 28 May

Interesting article. Good luck! +1

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Hello Dukascopy Community!
It's time for another article,
this time about selling technique during downtrend (which entry point to use
and why and when to get out of position and why). I will also explain you why
buying dips in downtrend is not the best idea. At the end you will have another
practical example of CHART PRICE ACTION that is how to read price moves from
clean charts based only on support/resistance lines and tops/bottoms. Hope it
will make you improve your own strategies and maybe let you take a fresh look
on things.
On the chart below I put some
downtrend channel according to the rule I mentioned some time ago, that I
need 3 points to establish a potential trend channel.On the next chart you can see same channel
but with corrective waves marked in blue. They may remind you of flag price
patterns. What is important here is that to draw each one of them I used 4
points of reference marked as green ellipsis (Of course as usual 3 would be sufficient). The red ellipsis is the breakout
point. The short thin red line that you see inside second corrective formation is
to show you that last top in that formation was not breached. That said, market gave m…
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marius24 avatar
marius24 17 Apr.

my friend i like your are good

zino11 avatar
zino11 18 Apr.

Simple strategy that i believe would work most of the time.
Very practical.
Good luck

kkforex avatar
kkforex 19 Apr.

Very nice strategy....good luck to you 1+

aaalisher avatar

how can I have that strategy ,,is avaialabe in jstore?\

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