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The euro fell from the high around 7 am Friday at 1.0685 all day to the low of 1.0603 after the US close—and then corrected higher by almost exactly 62% to 1.0657. . On the wider move over the last two days, a 50% retracement of the upmove would take the euro down to 1.0568.
On another analysis and what we are foresees that far faster inflation in the eurozone than the ECB expecting. Prices rise by 2% as early as Q2 and stay there for several quarters. The ECB sees only 1.7% on average in 2017 and that’s a jump from 1.1% in December. But sees the weak euro as feeding imported inflation and it won’t be a one-time thing.
Consumers are buying 9% more imported goods and services than in 2009. We all knows that the Exporters are happy to raise prices on higher demand. And the role of the euro as an invoicing currency has fallen. Here’s the turn of events: "Underestimating the significance of the exchange rate pass through will provide the hawkish members on the governing council with ammunition to force a discussion on tapering, earlier than expected as inflation creeps above staff projections.''
When we get a bit confused about the forecast, we look at the weekly chart. This time it of…
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s_amira avatar
s_amira 17 Jan.

thank you for sharing!

Yuliya_N avatar
Yuliya_N 17 Jan.

Thanks for useful information, my friend

TInna avatar
TInna 18 Jan.

very good!

hrustiashka avatar

Good article!

brilliant avatar
brilliant 25 Jan.

yes it is consolidating

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Engulfing reversal pattern is the strongest reversal pattern from all Japanese candlestick patterns (from my experience). It consists of 2 consecutive candles in opposite colours, for this reason I believe its is even stronger that widely popular single candle pin bar.
As with pin bars - engulfing patterns should be easy to spot on your charts. They should stand out on your chart as they only show reversals. On daily charts you can trade engulfing patterns on they own. On shorter time frames (bellow daily) they can still be ok to trade, but you will need additional filters - like trading with overall daily chart trend or trading only at support/resistance levels or similar filters. And in my experience engulfing patterns work the best on major currency pairs.
Nr 1 rule for engulfing patterns is that there must be in a clear trend before the engulfing pattern. This is not always easy to determine just with your eye - so I like to use some indicators to make things easier. I prefer Bollinger bands as they clearly show when price is in trend (when price is at upper Bollinger band - I consider this an uptrend, when price is at lower Bollinger band I consider this a downtrend) You could…
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VictoriaVika avatar

Nice written!

Ivolux avatar
Ivolux 14 Dec.

Thank you Vik!

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1.0 Introduction
Last month, April, was wonderful for me because I made excellent EUR/USD position gain. I am short time trader. Long trade setup can be created only using detail analysis. In this article I will try to show you my strategy and several steps which we can use in analysis process. The best approach is to use several analysis and different angles as we can see in Diagram. Fundamental analysis will be not part of this article.
Diagram : EUR/USD analysis

2.0 SWFX Sentiment Index analysis
Dukascopy SWFX Sentiment Index show long and short ratio for major forex pairs. On one side we have liquidity consumers (non banks traders such as brokers and individual clients) and on the other liquidity providers (banks and centralized marketplaces). In my opinion, liquidity consumers are mostly on right side. They follow major trend. Consumers (short time traders) very often "sell into rallies and buy into declines" and they follow short time trend. In Figure 1 we can see current Consumer SWFX Sentiment Index and in Figure 2 we can see current SWFX Providers Sentiment Index.
Figure 1: Consumers -SWFX Sentiment Index analysis

Figure 2: Providers -SW
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fxdevinal avatar

Fundamental analysis is very important for long term strategy trading.This technical view is OK. Cheers!

pipericky avatar

Divergence is very important so instead RSI I use MACD indicator. Excellent article.

akashrasad avatar

Right now its new buy setup for EURUSD.I'll try this strategy.

mahmudhasan avatar


rohomanislam avatar

Right now I will test trading strategy on eurusd pair. What do you see in June for eurusd setup?

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SERIES 1 No. 2
A Superior Strategic Edge: Inter-Market indicator (IM-I)
By Gino Roverssi

After reading several books about inter market analysis, I realize there was a common denominator in most of them. The majority of authors wrote: “Sell when the markets go bearish and buy when the markets go bullish. Clearly that’s sound logical, but to really understand what they were trying to say we need to define what the market is.
We can define The Market as a set of 4 major markets. First the FX Market or Currency Market, second the Commodity Market, third the Equity Market and fourth the Bonds Market. The sum of these is called the Market. These Fourth Markets are interconnected. What does interconnected means? Well the Merriam-Webster Dictionary definition is: “having internal connections between the parts or elements”[1]. This definition is a key element in understanding market relationships, in simple words you could say anything that happen in one market will affect the other and vice versa.
Then we can say, “If FX, Commodity, Equity and Bonds are bearish then every asset in those categories should begin a bearish cycle within its own price action”. But,[/1]…
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gino32 avatar
gino32 10 Sep.

Elani thanks. Both are great authors. I dont know here John H Murphy did his trading but Callum is the FX Research Head at Standard Chartered Bank.  Its a different reading from technical, jpc and the classic stuff!

gino32 avatar
gino32 11 Sep.

(Example of how you can use IM-I with other methods (AUDUSD))

peachynicnic avatar

insightful, thanks!

gino32 avatar
gino32 15 Sep.

peachynicnic  glad you liked it

VictoriaVika avatar

Dear Gino, even if its late comment -  let me say that is Lovely Article :) Victoria

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Many people argue that trading the forex market is a major gamble; because the trader has no idea where the market is going or how much it will move in a specific direction. To some extent i agree with that view, but i also know there several traders have made millions from these same financial markets. I know they did not all count on luck, rather they employed a defined trading approach and stuck to it.
This article is about my trading strategy and its performance during the month of May 2014.

It is a trend-following system that uses the 20-day EMA, 200-day EMA, 84-day (Commodity Channel Index) CCI and 18 -Time Period (Time Segmented Volume) TVS.
Entry Rules
Long trade conditions:
  1. Buy when the hourly candle closes above the 200-day EMA
  2. The 20-day EMA is pointing upwards and below price
  3. The TVS indicator is above the zero line
  4. The 84-day Commodity Channel Index is above the zero line

Short trade conditions:
  1. The hourly candle closes below the 200-day EMA
  2. The 20-day EMA is pointing downwards
  3. The TVS indicator is below the zero line
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Irina24 avatar
Irina24 25 June

and by the way its very interesting article!!!

PPandM avatar
PPandM 25 June

... well done and repeat next month! BIG LIKE! ;)

P3tr4 avatar
P3tr4 26 June

Thank you all for your support and guys are the best..:)

rokasltu avatar
rokasltu 26 June

I like view on success in trading that one who want succeed should have own trading approach and stuck to it.

Skif avatar
Skif 26 June

interesting article that has to take for themselves.

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Is it possible to be consistently ‘lucky’ in the currency market and produce profitable results on a monthly basis?
This was the question I asked myself, the answer is NO. You cannot be profitable every month based purely on luck. In my search to become a better trader, I read a book titled “The New Market Wizards” by Jack D. Schwager. The book contains a series of interviews with some of the greatest traders of our time. After reading the book, I found out a very profound truth; No trading success is based on accident or luck. These great traders interviewed all had one thing in common; they had a defined methodology or strategy. And they stuck to it and they made consistent profits.
Consistent profits from trading require a methodology or trading system;this is what led me to my “Golden cross strategy”. It is a trend-following system that uses the 20-day EMA, 200-day EMA, 84-day (Commodity Channel Index) CCI and 18 -Time Period (Time Segmented Volume) TVS.
Entry Rules
Long trade conditions:
  1. Buy when the hourly candle closes above the 200-day EMA
  2. The 20-day EMA is pointing upwards and below price
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Tinktank avatar

Nice article! Its good to have a disciplined approach to trading. And congratulations on your performance in the trader contest. You are did well. Best of luck this month brother.

CD1V1 avatar
CD1V1 8 May

PS: i subscribed to your signals, i am very expectant.

jezz avatar
jezz 16 May

3rd month of the elaboration of the subject. Congratulations on your success anyway. I didn't follow the blog, but i know your style so far. And one truth - you would NEVER leave the strategy on the real account. This was fooling around (maybe you had too many eggs) that cost you big time. Just to prove the strategy works

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It is one of the seasoned trader who introduced me to the concept called “tactical trading”. Of course it is during a routine conversation that I asked a question to him “which one do you trade? Fundamentals or technicals? He told “I do both at a time!” meaning he trades technicals and fundamentals simultaneously. This sounded too funny to me as majority of traders either trade fundamentals or technicals and not both, that is too at a time! This curiosity and my eagerness to really explore this style of trading made me to learn the same in depth. It took me almost 5 years to learn nuts and bolts of this style of trading. It is named as”tactical trading” because in this style of trading we use more of our intelligence as well as tact as compared to the pre-defined systems and strategies used in most of the styles of trading. Tactical trading has many dimensions and it is highly impossible to cover all of them in a single article. In this article, I will deal with an element of under this style of trading known as “price corridor”. One should note the fact that like price action, explaining tactical trading with real time charts is also a hilarious task as what happens during live ac…
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SpecialFX avatar
SpecialFX 21 Sep.

Even though my trading approach is purely technical (because I do not try to predict, I just react), only a very naive trader can believe that technicals are the only thing that moves the market, especially in long term scenarios. Example, if a central bank unexpectedly initiates a series of interest rate cuts the currency goes down A LOT, no matter what the trend lines, the bollingers, the elliot waves, etc, predicted before. Great article, especially the bit about fundamentals :)

thescalper avatar
thescalper 24 Sep.

Still tech has edge over fundamental trading, after all CHARTS don't LIE.

alifari avatar
alifari 24 Sep.

I found this article interesting - well done

doctortyby avatar
doctortyby 27 Sep.

It is always a pleasure to see great articles from You my friend

fxigor avatar
fxigor 26 Oct.

Nice article.I use arbitrage trading strategy and I use forex pairs with correlation bigger than 80.I learn from you about “potential price corridor " and thank you for that. Do you use simmilary strategy in your trading?

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