Hello everyone, I am a new member of the great Dukascopy community and this will be my first of many articles. I feel like this is the perfect subject to start with because the explanation of a carry trade brings us back to the very basic fundamentals of forex trading. So here we go!
Definition of a carry trade:
A carry trade consists of borrowing money in a currency with low interest rates and investing the funds in another currency with higher interest rates.
This is a pretty straightforward definition, but let's use an example to put this information into context. If the interest rate of the European Central Bank is 0% while the US Federal Reserve is 1,75%, the interest rate spread would be 1,75% (1,75% - 0%). In this example, we would borrow Euro to invest in USD therefore the net yield of the carry trade would be a gain of 1.75% or 1,750$ a year for 1 lot traded.
How does this apply to trading?
Borrowing and investing in different countries would be way too complicated for an individual to do alone. This is why we do business with brokers. They can give us access to trade almost all the currencies in the world. As we know the FX market operates in pair, meaning that if you inv…
翻訳する: 英語 オリジナルを表示
Diana29 avatar
Diana29 2018年04月29日

Nice job!

Sanju777 avatar
Sanju777 2018年04月29日

good artilce

Sasha_spicy avatar
Sasha_spicy 2018年04月29日

good one!

Maxim3 avatar
Maxim3 2018年04月30日

useful article!

rajwinder avatar
rajwinder 2018年04月30日

Well written, Good Luck

1. What drives the pair?
One of the important fundamental factors driving the pair is safe haven versus yield search. We must remember though, that New Zealand is not a high risk country! This is why we can see NZDJPY going up sometimes in spite of JPY currency index going up too. Both countries are 'far' from the rest of the world and both are 'isolated' as they are 100% insular. Although initial reactions to events like Brexit make JPY or CHF appreciate against everything, after the first moments NZD and similar currencies also go up, as they give better yield while not being affected that much by general pains of economy and politics.
Let's see relevant data for both countries when it comes to trading the pair:
  • New Zealand
  1. Politics: Constitutional monarchy with parliamentary democracy. Constitution is not codified. British monarch is the head of state.
翻訳する: 英語 オリジナルを表示
ak10 avatar
ak10 2016年11月23日

Useful method, Ito new for me.

Uliana_Alexandrova avatar
Uliana_Alexandrova 2016年11月23日

Very interesting!!!

brilliant avatar
brilliant 2016年11月24日

I like those pairs too

marina2016 avatar
marina2016 2016年12月09日


FXRabbit avatar
FXRabbit 2016年12月14日

Good article!

The COT is a report published by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission that measures the net long and short positions taken by speculative traders and commercial traders thus its a great resource to help gauge where the major market players are positioned in the market. The COT report is released Friday around 2.30 pm EST.
How To Find COT Report.
Step 1:
  • Open your browser and type/ copy and paste the address: http://www.cftc.gov/marketreports/commitmentsoftraders/index.htm

Step 2:
  • When the page is fully loaded, scroll down to find the "Current Legacy Report" section.
  • Under it, find the "Chicago Mercantile Exchange" row, and locate on the "Short Format"(as indicated in the image below) under the "Futures Only" column.

Step 3:
  • By clicking on the "Short Format", the latest report will appear as shown below.
  • Scroll down to find your currency of interest.

  • Basing on the currency chosen you can be able to determine the number of bearish and bullish trades and their trades. With this information you can decide whether to stay bullish or bearish on the trade.

In the next article i will go ahead to explain how to read, interpret and use the COT report for trading. Happy Trading
翻訳する: 英語 オリジナルを表示
mcquak avatar
mcquak 2016年09月21日

COT is very popular in many theories of trading and if we would have such statistics each day it'd be fine though., so for long term trading maybe. I personally do not use the report. The reason is the volatility of the Forex market and lag of COT issue date. I do not know exactly, as it's long time ago when I was bothering with COT investigation, but how much lagged is currently COT? Week, 7 days? To me it's too much for using COT as source of any valuable trading decision. I'd say it's lagging indicator the same way as moving averages are.

FXRabbit avatar
FXRabbit 2016年09月22日

COT is not as bad as knowing the leverage and margin levels of speculating traders. :v Good article!

TInna avatar
TInna 2016年09月22日

отличная работа!

SikmaN avatar
SikmaN 2016年09月30日

good job!

Granchio avatar
Granchio 2016年10月02日

ottimo lavoro


is one of the most popular trading approaches, well known among the traders , because of its high reliability . It is not so slow as Position trading when several orders are executed during the year , nor so fast as Scalping , used TF 5 -1 min . or even lower .... It tries to capture Market movements within one to several days .That is why it is suitable for Novice traders too . In fact ... if someone master this trading approach , he may apply it in any time frames .
It is highly reliable because :
  1. - Positions are opened in the direction of the present trend ( Remember - " The Trend is your Friend " ) ;
  2. - Precise entry allows using very tight Stop Loss ;
  3. - Profit might be unlimited ;
  4. - That's why it has High Reward to Risk Ratio .
What is Basic I.C.E. Swing Trading Pattern ? ... this is abbreviation of :
  • I - Impulse ;
  • C - Correction ;
翻訳する: 英語 オリジナルを表示
pashok888 avatar
pashok888 2016年04月03日

good job!

tangell avatar
tangell 2016年04月03日


tdbatinkov avatar
tdbatinkov 2016年04月03日

my friends.. thanks for support

ijayakumar avatar
ijayakumar 2016年04月17日

Good article... Your articulation is good!

klizthiac avatar
klizthiac 2016年09月04日

Good job


Since my core trading strategy is a swing trading style in this article I will attempt to outline some trading rules that help me catch the big waves. But before going further we need to define what swing trading is all about and what kind of traders usually employ swing trading strategy.
  • What is Swing Trading?
Swing trading is a style of trading in which positions are held for longer than a single day, between 3 days and 3 weeks, and which attempts to catch the big movements in the market. There are many types of traders who uses swing trading from retail traders to institutional traders(prop traders, small-medium Hedge Funds, CTA). Above all you have to find by yourself if swing trading really suits your personality otherwise it may not work for you as not everyone can endure the risk and the ups and downs of a swing wave. Holding a position overnight can be an stress factor for many traders.
  • What is the right market for Swing Trading?
This is probably the most important question you would have to ask yourself before even starting to submit a trade. Swing trading is all about having the right trading environment and proper conditions otherwise you may end up with po…
翻訳する: 英語 オリジナルを表示
VictoriaVika avatar
VictoriaVika 2014年11月05日

Daytrader21 Good and informative article about Swing Trading, useful advices were given, Thank you for sharing some your trading knowledge, friend :)

Likerty avatar
Likerty 2014年11月11日

swing tradigng service?:))

Mani avatar
Mani 2014年11月12日

Very interesting +1

Jignesh avatar
Jignesh 2014年11月19日

Good article, and good example.  EURAUD is like a swing trader's dream.  I found the opposite to be true of the cons you describe though.  Meaning I think swing trading is less mentally demanding and time consuming than scalping.  When I scalped I was in front of the screen 14 hours/day.. swing trading, I have gotten away with 1 hour/day in the past.  Good point about knowing which market you are in.  Must be the biggest challenge for a new swing trader taking profits too soon/late.

Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 2014年11月19日

Jignesh You bring in some valid points. The reason why I'm saying it's very mentally demanding is because a move doesn't develop straight away, but it moves in waves and during those retracement your trading decision will be put at test, and if you're not emotionally stable this can lead to taking the wrong decision.

If you have read some of my articles and/or comments, or watched the few webinars I've done, by now you probably know that I prefer a long term approach in my trading, and that I don't recommend day trading, especially to inexperienced traders. It is a known fact that most retails traders use short time frames, and they have the opinion that long term trading is riskier, so they stick to their intraday charts believing that they are taking less risk. And this myth of the supposed safety of intraday trading is repeated ad infinitum until almost everyone believes in it. However, that's what it really is: a myth, nothing more than that. _____________________________ ► Trading costs and slippage No matter how long you hold your positions for, there is a fixed cost that is the same in all situations: the spread. And then there are commissions based in your trading volumes and capital deposited (using Dukascopy's fee structure). Imagine that a currency pair has a total cost of 2 pips per order (spread + commissions). A day-trader will usually have small profit targets, lets say 20 pips. So he will pay 10% of his profits to the broker, and likewise his losses are also inflated by…
翻訳する: 英語 オリジナルを表示
OneGoodTrade avatar
OneGoodTrade 2013年01月31日

You are so right SpecialFx. And some wonder why the day traders lose ...however there is a catch...the longer timeframe, the more difficult is to predict the prices. Great article.

Nicco avatar
Nicco 2013年01月31日

Amazing...I understand (day)trading can't be a hobby or (day)trading is an expesive hobby!

Nicco avatar
Nicco 2013年01月31日

I will print this paper!

belman avatar
belman 2013年01月31日

Interesting. best of luck +1

doctortyby avatar
doctortyby 2013年01月31日

I agree with the fact that technical analysis works better on the higher time frames (at least Daily), but there are also ups and downs for the intraweek, medium and long term trading too :)

Market Price Movement does not apply any principles of Technical Indicators like Fibonacci Ratio, Elliot Waves, Relative Strength Index etc. It is fully based on what majority of traders think and price moves in that direction. According to theory book, it is called Supply and Demand, which most of traders know, however only few of them apply it. Interaction of Buyers and Sellers determine price movement, and also it tells future price move.In this article, I am uncovering rules of Supply and Demand, and how to predict future price sentiments in long term.Introduction : CoT (Commitment of Traders)CoT report contains open interest, Long and Short positions data of market, in which trader hold position equal to or above to the reporting level established by CFTC, in three groups of positions, and these are classified into following groups:Commercial : Organizations, Companies etc. (Also called as Hedgers to protect their business capital)Non-Commercial : Large Speculators, Hedgers, Investors etc.Non-Reportable : Small Investors, Retail Traders like us etc.This report is published by Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) every Friday around 3:30 PM Eastern Standard Time (EST), a…
翻訳する: 英語 オリジナルを表示
drishti avatar
drishti 2013年03月29日

Therefore, applying CoT is a little tricky, where you have not notice all details, not that if net long is keep rising that we should buy and net short is keep rising then we should sell. You have to look at peak points too, which you will notice once you start looking at CoT Report each week.

vancho avatar
vancho 2013年03月29日

@drishti: I see a report every week and use it to trade. Good deal on them if you keep the deal a week. In any case, if you use it in conjunction with other analysis tools, the expectation will rise strongly in a positive direction. By the way, what do you think the euro for the next week based on the report?

sircris avatar
sircris 2013年03月30日

Supply and demand is the basis of price generation of any asset. Fundamental analysis studies the causes and technical analysis studies the effect. Regarding the example in Fig. 2 is interesting to see how the Commercials are long across the entire period, while the Non-commercials are short at the beginning and long at the end. Very useful link to the data. Interesting article, brings something new and that also can be really useful.

doctortyby avatar
doctortyby 2013年03月31日

I also use the COT report in my analysis...which information do you find most useful the speculators positioning or the commercials?

drishti avatar
drishti 2013年03月31日

@doctortyby : As Non-Commercial (Speculators) has high presence in price movement, therefore I use Non-Commercial net positions as my bias of weekly direction.


 About me: 
I've been trading Currencies,
commodities and other financial instruments for the past 2 years. 
I've been learning by myself without the
help of others and I've got to a point where I
am comfortable trading live accounts profitably.
I am nearly at a stage of financial
freedom for myself and my family through Forex.
While I am a confident in My trading
skills, I am a human and I make mistakes, we all do, And most importantly
to become a successful trader you must be able to learn from these
mistakes and improve on them.
Most recently I turned a $300 micro
account to a $20,000 account in the space of a few months (http://www.myfxbook.com/members/JeremyWS/jeremyws2/132232)
BUT . . . . I did wipe that account in
the space of 2 weeks. This article is
here to help you turn your capital into something much higher but to also
warn you on some common mistakes and some that caused myself to
lose 20k In a few days.
How to make it:
You are reading this because you like
the idea of making a lot of money. But you have to know straight away this
is not an easy job. It takes a lot of time investment and pa…
翻訳する: 英語 オリジナルを表示
AdrianWS avatar
AdrianWS 2011年11月26日

Thanks. I hope to follow this one with a series next month. If you've liked it don't forget to thumbs it up :)

Ltjere avatar
Ltjere 2011年11月27日

Nice I'm looking forward to it :)

FX_Swingtrader avatar
FX_Swingtrader 2011年11月27日

definitely look forward to reading more from you.

AdrianWS avatar
AdrianWS 2011年11月27日

Thank you all for the support, just out of the prize for this month but hopefully next month :)

AdrianWS avatar
AdrianWS 2011年11月28日

Just an update Im going to put a "technical vs fundamental 4 part guide next month, any suggestions? good idea or not?

                    Silly Secret III: Trading style   Scalping and Swing trading:               Scalping is a trading technique where a trader is very active in the market and enters the position with a smaller pip profit or loss, says about 10-15 pips and does the same for about 5 to hundreds of trades a day. At the end of the day, he theoretically might have gained around 100 -150 pips. A scalper typically watches the price action of tick chart to 1min chart and takes action very fast.             Where as in swing trading technique a trader looks at big pip gain and waits for the trading setup to exist and then enters the market where he is expecting big movement in the market with relatively smaller leverage. A swing trader watches price action of more than 5 minutes to 4 hour chart and then takes his call for a bigger take profit and smaller loss. Time and again it’s proven that those who adopt longer term view of the market and trade according to the trend have been successful in the market as they get plenty of time to decide and even when he is on the wrong side, can always make good by either reversing the position or hedge the position. Those who follow scalpin…
翻訳する: 英語 オリジナルを表示
futures avatar
futures 2011年09月23日

I like your style keep going...

doctortyby avatar
doctortyby 2011年09月23日

I don't like scalping... I think intraday trading could be used only in London's Open and in news Releases. Money Management is a MUST, and it should be used with a Position Size Calculator... +1 for You my friend

acp888 avatar
acp888 2011年09月24日

good article +1

HUBster avatar
HUBster 2011年09月30日

good article +1

ZHOU avatar
ZHOU 2012年12月16日