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USDchf Scenarios in the Midterm View

khalidamassi Posted 3 Mar. in #Technical analysis #Forex #Fed #Fundamental Analysis #Interest Rate #Usdchf #Intervention #Snb #Pair Review #Expected Scenario
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Introduction
In this article USDCHF will be analyzed both fundamentally and technically and as known nothing is impossible in Forex so different scenarios will be drawn to express about the most probable scenarios with the USDCHF.
What is affected the move of USDCHF nowadays:
Fundamental analysis:
USDCHF is affected now by two different policies by both The Swiss National Bank (SNB) and United States Federal Reserve (FED) and also affected strongly by The Swiss National Bank (SNB) intervention in Forex market which strongly hit CHF, finally CHF and other currencies is affected due to strong growth in US in the last months which make US$ to be favored.
  • Different policies by SNB and FED:

SNB intervened in Forex market several times, every time, it said that it will intervene if necessary to avoid any strong gains for CHF against currencies especially against EUR.
In different, US FED has just raised interest rate for the first time from ten years, FED delayed its first rate hike more than once in order to prevent broad US$ gains which may dampen US growth, this time rate hike is very near but if something horrible hit markets again, more rate hike may be delayed more.
[list]…
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alias1980 avatar
alias1980 8 Mar.

khalidamassi you can work the analyst )

isomere avatar
isomere 10 Mar.

useful analysis, thank you.

Nihad avatar
Nihad 11 Mar.

Nice analysis Khaled, FED and SNB are apparently on policy divergence, but the actual state of the US economy will force the FED to policy converge not only with the SNB, but mainly with the ECB, BOJ and PBoC. Therefore, my humble opinion is that testing the 1030 is unlikely. However, it was nice reading your fundamental analysis for this pair. Good luck Bro

khalidamassi avatar
khalidamassi 14 Mar.

Thanks Nihad, I am very proud of your opinion, analysis for the near time, often changes takes much time to happen, may FED follow ECB and BOJ but when ???

WallStreet6 avatar
WallStreet6 24 Mar.

Interesting

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Negative Interest Rate Policy

mrlfx Posted 22 Feb. in #Forex #Ecb #Boe #Boj #Fed #Interest Rate #Snb #Central Bank #Economic Policy #Negative Interest Rate
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What is Negative Interest Rate Policy?:

A negative interest rate policy is an unconventional monetary policy tool employed by Central Banks where the nominal interest rate is below zero hence the term negative. It is unconventional because instead of the depositors earning money for their deposits in Banks, the depositors are charged for their deposits in the banks. Negative interest rate do not directly impact small investors but can indirectly have effect from the spillover of banks having deposits at other big banks/central banks.
Why Negative Interest Rate Policy?

The policy of negative interest rate is employed when the central bank observes in its economy of the following :
  1. Low or no growth
  2. Deflation
  3. Hoard of money by people and business
Central Bank’s policy aim is to make people and businesses to spend and invest money instead of keeping money at the bank and to stop prices from falling, increase real production and output, and decrease of unemployment. Such loose and expansionary monetary policy is employed usually to deal with such stagnation in the economy.
When a Central Bank has set a negative interest rate, it means depositor will be charged for keeping their mone…
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3 Comments
zarina avatar
zarina 27 Feb.

You are waiting for the fall of the Euro ?

Nihad avatar
Nihad 27 Feb.

Good luck buddy

wisdom_consultant avatar
wisdom_consultant 28 Feb.

nice article

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EURchf Technical and Fundamental Analysis from My Point of View

PTtrader Posted 7 Sep. in #Technical analysis #Trading #Swiss #Fundamental Analysis #Eurchf #Intervention #Snb #Trading Strategy #1.2000 Floor
15/23
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I personally started trading EURCHF pair after Swiss National Bank intervention on September, 6 2011. At that time I was new forex trader and for me it was epic move. The exchange rate of EURCHF skyrocketed from 1.1018 to 1.2187 in just 3 hours, which is 1169 pips move as you can see on figure 1. Many traders lost or made really lot money thanks to this event.
Figure 1. EUR/CHF Hourly chart. Swiss National Bank Intervention in 2011


Yesterday it was just three years from SNB annoucing 1.2000 floor and market wasn´t able to break this floor as you can see on figure 2. The main question for me right now is, will SNB protect 1.2000 level this time? Will be or will be not market able to break this level in medium term perspective? What are the risks in current market situation?
Figure 2. EUR/CHF Weekly chart. Situation after SNB intervention.


Technical analysis of EUR/CHF pair
Current market exchange rate is 1.2063. The most important level to watch is 1.2000, which should be protected by Swiss National Bank, many retail traders and big players, so the best level, where to put stop loss to protect capital is under level 1.2000. For my trading style is ideal level 1.1970, which is 30 …
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Airmike avatar
Airmike 10 Sep.

I vote for EURCHF long. :)

Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 11 Sep.

Well, just after I've posted my comment yesterday SNB spokesman Meier give an interview to WSJ saying SNB is open for negative rate, which is an old news as every time EUR/CHF come near the PEG they pull out of a hat this rhetoric:)). I hope you took some profits as it will come back again:))

PTtrader avatar
PTtrader 11 Sep.

My target is 1.2250 for first medium term position :) I dont think that they will apply it in medium term, they thought about it even two years ago.

peachynicnic avatar
peachynicnic 15 Sep.

nice, thanks

VictoriaVika avatar
VictoriaVika 23 Oct.

Thanks for your article, there is many useful information, really good strategy and detail explanation. Victoria

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The Usa Recovery against the Snb's Threshold in 2013

Arenoosh Posted 15 Mar. in #Dollar #Europe #Fibonacci #Fed #Elliot Wave #USD/CHF #Snb #Macroeconomic #Dow Theory
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In their “Monetary policy assessment of 14 March 2013”, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) decided to leave the exchange rate of CHF 1.20 per euro unchanged. The SNB said that “the minimum exchange rate is an important instrument in avoiding an undesirable tightening of monetary conditions. The SNB will therefore enforce this minimum rate with the utmost determination and, if necessary, is prepared to buy foreign currency in unlimited quantities for this purpose.” Last summer the SNB was a key mover of the global forex market. It was known to be buying tens of billions of euros each month, hoping to keep the franc weak to protect its exporters in the face of inflows from spooked overseas investors at the height of the eurozone crisis in May. Rumors abounded among forex investors that the SNB was buying Swedish krona and the Australian dollar. Bankers said there had been days when the SNB was the biggest single buyer of Australian debt. Figures released by the SNB later in the year confirmed the rumors; the proportion of “other” currencies on its balance sheet – the Australian dollar, Swedish krona, Danish krone, Singapore dollar and Korean won – rose. The IMF is considering switching CA…
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Arenoosh avatar
Arenoosh 25 Mar.

thank you for your feedback

Efegen avatar
Efegen 28 Mar.

You were right and you are goin to be right.

Arenoosh avatar
Arenoosh 28 Mar.

@Efegen when I published this article the usd/chf rate was arround 0.9380. If someone went long on this pair after reading my article, now he would have +160 pips and I think by the end of the contest might be +200 pips.

Arenoosh avatar
Arenoosh 28 Mar.

Now I have one more reason to be long USA. Even if, this year, we didn't had a spectacular oil prices evolution we do have something: the gap betwen WTI and BRENT is reducing and that means investors are working with the assumption of a better performance in relative terms of US economy because we all know that WTI is a benchmark for the US while BRENT is a benchmark for Europe and Asia. For 2013 I would be long US stocks, and usd vs G7/G20 currencies.

SpecialFX avatar
SpecialFX 29 Mar.

Very detailed article mixing a lot of different types of analysis, I liked it a lot :)

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Another EUR/CHF Analysis

PTtrader Posted 6 Dec. in #Snb #Trading Tips #Eurchf Analysis
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Next week will be next SNB (Swiss National Bank) conference, thats why i think thats great time for another EUR/CHF analysis. This will be third, first i wrote at seventh march 2012 (and i was right) and second i wrote at twentieth semptember 2012 (right too).Im really big fan of SNB peg, because i think its great opportunity for everybody to make very good trades with wonderfull TP:SL ratio. Thanks to several several big banks, which started to apply negative interest rates at CHF deposits is EUR/CHF traded around 1.21. (was as high as 1.2163)1) I think that SNB will not change their peg for another 3 - 6 months, because there is still big risk at forex market with EURO and USD too. So thats why i still belive in 1.2000 floor as great resistance, which will not be broken. I would set up Stop loss level in range 1.1970 - 1.1990 depends on your trading style. My plan is to open positions at 1.2090 and in case market will give me better price i will buy much more. In best case at 1.2010 with target at 1.24.2) I would split my target into two cases, short term and medium term. My shortt erm target is previous highs somewhere around 1.2150 - 70 zone, because that zone was several times…
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5 Comments
SpecialFX avatar
SpecialFX 9 Dec.

My EUR/CHF analysis for now is...no analysis :) this pair moves based on politics these days so I remain neutral and will trade any trends that eventually occur in the future, long or short. If Greece gets kicked out of the euro and/or Spain needs a full blown baillout (or the political situation in Italy gets even more chaotic) I can definetely see 1.20 being broken. On the other hand, if things in Europe finally stabilize EUR/CHF can only go up. By the way, no matter if you go long or short this pair, you will still lose money (but not much) with swaps, based on current swap rates.

PTtrader avatar
PTtrader 9 Dec.

Thank you for your comment. Im holding longs and still get positive swaps. I falled in love with this pair, thats why i risk lot of money. My score is 7:0 (Win : Loose positions)

PTtrader avatar
PTtrader 9 Dec.

With average TP:SL 4:1, thats im not worry :)

SpecialFX avatar
SpecialFX 9 Dec.

How can you get positive swaps? :) Check this page: http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/forex/forex_trading_accounts/overnight/ For every million EUR/CHF 0.05 pips are added to the entry price (meaning that you lose 0.05 pips). Having pips added to a long position is not positive, because the higher the entry price is, the worse it is for the trader.

PTtrader avatar
PTtrader 9 Dec.

For EUR/CHF trade i use another broker.

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What with EUR/CHF?

amerfx86 Posted 9 Nov. in #Forex #Strategy #Eurusd #Eurchf #Snb #Currency Pair
8/28
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After nearly six months of sleeping, one of the most volatile currency pairs before the introduction of the floor on 1.20, woke up. The reason for waking was restore the trust that the EU will find a solution to its debt crisis and the diminishing pressure on the SNB to buy euros for Swiss francs. Will this adventure of eurchf last long or we'll come back to 1.2006-1.2011 range? Thanks to the recovery of the EURUSD? The debt crisis in Europe that has lasted for 3 years strongly affected by the devaluation of euro, however the actions taken by the EU member states as well as the establishment of the ESM and opportunities through which these funds will be used affected the recovery of the euro against all currencies, among these currencies are found and CHF. Chart 1. EURCHF dailyRecovery of euro against the dollar in particular contributed to a QE3 which the Fed has done even more pressure on the dollar. Between EUR / USD and EUR / CHF we can find correlation (see point 1,2 and 3 on chart 1 and 2), so when the EUR / USD at a level above 1.3, then the pressure on the floor 1.20 was lower and the EUR / CHF moved in the range 1.2030-1.2150, whereas when the EUR / USD fell below 1.30 on…
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amerfx86 avatar
amerfx86 25 Nov.

CHF which leave the Swiss are used in the financial systems of other countries. Because of the financial and debt crisis that started in 2007, CHF is tempting currency, but when the market is flooded with CHF, market will react as the SNB wants, selling CHF and pressure on the floor would be a none, that would be the moment when SNB will remove floor.

Berkeley avatar
Berkeley 27 Nov.

Well done, your strategy is very interesting. All the best for you!

alifari avatar
alifari 29 Nov.

nice article

mohamed1 avatar
mohamed1 29 Nov.

Nice article

mucha89 avatar
mucha89 19 Sep.

nice article. good luck!

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My Take on Eurchf

adask Posted 15 Feb. in #Forex #Euro #Swiss #Trade #Setup #Eurchf #Snb #Frank
4/58
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In the past I've wrote an
article about EURCHF setup. We all know that currently this pair is
in a strong downtrend. But we also know that SNB set a floor –
1.2000 - for this pair. So we still have
great opportunities to trade. Currently I am building longs of this
pair. I expect that just after these problems and uncertainties with
Euro end, pair will move up. Also intervention by SNB is probable
too. Rumours about new – higher floor would fast lift the pair too. But also while trading this pair, risk
has to be calculated and stops have
to be used. We cannot be 100% sure if SNB will
defend floor. They can change their minds. In this case we would get
crash of this pair. So all positions should be reversed in this case.
Anyway I think that this scenario is least probable, because now,
when they already set the floor, changing minds would be very
damaging to Frank rate.In this
article I will shortly show the levels and what I am expecting.
In a
chart below is a daily chart of bigger picture. On a regular pair we
could expect a reversal, so with 1.2000 floor odds for a reversal are
even higher.
Below is
a 1 hour chart with uptrend line. There were few nice opportunities
to long from …
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jurga1s avatar
jurga1s 18 Feb.

Not bad. Now the pair is at 1.2087, that is +23 pips from 1.2064. And that level really worked! Just in this case fundamentals means a lot too.

aurelijus avatar
aurelijus 18 Feb.

Don't know, this looks dangerous.

ritesh avatar
ritesh 26 Feb.

perfect analysis.

adask avatar
adask 29 Feb.

Currently the pair is stuck at 1.2050. If we would look at bid line we'll see how 1.2050 is magic. We have to keep in mind this. I think SNB will not allow lower for now. And currently I see some funds forecasting 1.2700, well this is far future.

Bluedragon avatar
Bluedragon 29 Feb.

good luck;) +1

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Next Snb Intervention: Date, Target, Stoploss (volume one)

fxprophet Posted 6 Dec. in #Intervention #Snb #Date #Targets
48/100
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I might not be George Soros, who was able to anticipate huge
instantaneous market movements with sniper accuracy, but I certainly have had
my own share of predicting and catching significant pip movements in the
foreign exchange market. As we all know, Intervention by central banks is a
major market mover which can cause huge instantaneous price changes in currency
trading.  Last year, I was oblivious of
this fundamental, and I lost a huge chunk of money during the Bank of Japan
Intervention. This negative motivation spurred me into looking for a way of
figuring out and anticipating interventions with sniper accuracy. My last
prediction was the last intervention by the Bank of Japan, but unfortunately, I
missed it by a couple of hours( I didn’t want to keep my position open over the
weekend, and they took me unawares by intervening a couple of hours after
market open while I was still sleeping). I am about to make another prediction,
but this time, it is the next SNB intervention which is fast approaching. If
you want to know when it will happen, just keep reading!
SECRETS YOU SHOULD
KNOW: well, they are no more secrets because I am about to unveil them to
you. It takes a lot of m…
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skytrader avatar
skytrader 14 Dec.

+1, the last SNB action killed my contest account a few weeks ago! that was not nice at all.. i was fully loaded, but on the wrong FRANC side.. haha, that was fun... the fastest test account blowing ever.. nice article prophet!

emmax avatar
emmax 14 Dec.

Great! this is excellent man! keep it up.

skytrader avatar
skytrader 15 Dec.

seems like there wa sno intervention today... i mena how high do they think they can push the euro agains CHF artificially???

MyiDEA avatar
MyiDEA 18 Dec.

Article contest good for learning...good wishes for this competition...

ritesh avatar
ritesh 22 Dec.

Wishing you a very happy and prosperous New Year. +1

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The Flea and the Elephant

Tzumpi Posted 12 Sep. in #EUR/USD #Snb #Swiss Franc #Battle Of Elephants
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This is about FX markets, note the SNB's decision:Once upon a time, there was a flea that was living on an elephant. They were happy together in the animal world as the young elephant was running around in the forest, jumping up and down, eating and sleeping well. The flea was happy too as he was feeding with good healthy elephant blood and all he had to do was sit and eat. But the elephant world was cruel and harsh – other elephants were also trying to feed themselves with the same food that our young elephant was searching. On the other side of the forest was living a much bigger and older elephant which had a lot of experience in searching and finding food. He was not at all young, fluffy and inexperienced as our young elephant. Instead he was hugely over-sized, with big long teeth and an enormous appetite for food. Nothing would stand in his way when he wanted to feed. He was THE king of all elephants. Time passed, day by day, week by week, years by years – our young elephant became much stronger, yet inexperienced and a little stupid while the flea grew and grew and grew to an extent that it could barely live on the elephant. One year, during winter, a weather ano…
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4 Comments
Livornese avatar
Livornese 12 Sep.

Nice story!!!

doctortyby avatar
doctortyby 12 Sep.

Good luck my friend! +1

LinnuxFX avatar
LinnuxFX 13 Sep.

Some images will be good...

ritesh avatar
ritesh 27 Sep.

Great article and last week of competition, so best of luck buddy +1

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The Euro CHF Rally, Central Bank Dictate or Fibonacci Action?

DaddyPapi Posted 9 Sep. in #Technical analysis #EUR/CHF #Fundamental Analysis #Snb #Fibonacci Waves
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Central Bank interventions in the currency market are generally aimed at keeping the relative value of the domestic currency in line with monetary and economic policies of the country involved. Such interventions normally lead to significant and unexpected movements when measured against the average Daily and Weekly market ranges of most currency pairs. This was evident on September 6 when the market reacted to the SNB`s declaration to defend a 1.20 rate for the EURO CHF, sparking an immediate depreciation of 10.0%. While many may believe that future Swiss Franc weakness will be due entirely to the SNB, there are others who believe that it was already on the cards, based on the natural laws of Fibonacci prices.   When currency pairs are found to be moving in sync with Fibonacci Prices on the Monthly Charts, these targets tend to lead to major price reversals. This appears to be the present scenario for the EURO CHF which has been rallying since it breached the major Fibonacci target of 1.0839 last month. Given the precedent of similar rallies at Fib targets in 2008 and 2010 for this same currency pair as well as for the GBP CHF, it is very likely that the overall depreciation th…
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4 Comments
Livornese avatar
Livornese 12 Sep.

Nice point of view! I personally don't love waves but I see that are a really powerful tool. Thumb up.

DaddyPapi avatar
DaddyPapi 12 Sep.

Thanks Livornese...you from Livorno? your team not doing too badly in Serie B...10th or 11th position? yeah these waves are a necessary evil..thats why I dont watch a trade that I have on, too much of an emotional roller coaster.Fibs work on some currencies, but not others or all the time. Faster the market, the less accurate the Fib tool is, but the slower it is, more likely it obeys the Fibs.

hedgefund101 avatar
hedgefund101 13 Sep.

Good technical article, if it works 4 u then by all means use it. I am not a fib user though. Keep up the good work. Zeen

LinnuxFX avatar
LinnuxFX 13 Sep.

Another great article, good luck for this mounth too...

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