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6/68
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This article is about what currencies and other asset classes I think is going to be the most at risk and can offer us the best opportunities in term of risk to reward ratio in the year ahead. 2016 has caused a lot of trauma in terms of volatility and it also builds up extreme trends that I would consider extreme because they don’t really fit between fundamental, technical and market conditions and that creates a lot of anxiety and it certainly curbs the potential for follow through. This kind of market conditions sends a clear warning that trends can reverse or at least give us a decent tradable retracement.
We’re going to look at a possible rebalancing of these divergent aspects and I think this is going to feed into the trading opportunities that we have in 2017.
EUR/USD Trade Opportunity for 2017
The EUR/USD is the most severe or at risk currency amongst the majors as the parity level will act as a catalyst and ultimately this will become a self-fulfilling prophecy. However, what is more important is what will happen with EUR/USD after the parity level is reached? I believe that the answer to this question will reveal the EUR/USD trade for 2017.
The monetary policy bearings th…
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rupesh1984 avatar
rupesh1984 18 Jan.

well done,speechless cant explain in word for ur deep analysis :)

Daytrader21 avatar

scramble Thanks

Daytrader21 avatar

rupesh1984 appreciate your kind words. I'm hoping and I'm confident that my forecast will be proven right by the markets.

TInna avatar
TInna 19 Jan.

woooow....super!)

brilliant avatar
brilliant 25 Jan.

nice work as usual. do you think  day traders can  benefit that kind of overall analysis ?

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17/56
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The theme of the impact of seasonality on the price of stock assets was started by Larry Williams in 1973. Many researchers of history of technical analysis consider him as the "godfather" of this method in the commodities market. Because of this, Larry Williams is considered as the true ancestor of the seasonal trade.
Seasonality of the stock and commodity markets been known for long. Likewise described principle works at Forex market, following the same laws of supply and demand changes. Laws of exist - for example, we all know that the ruble falls in autumn.
Typically, the foreign exchange market is changing quite quickly; trends tend to unfold, changing direction, creating hazards and room for trader’s maneuver. But there are certain segments in which not only the fundamental and technical analysis, but also taking into account seasonal factors will effectively works in the "plus".
From the point of view of maximizing the impact of seasonal factors on the behavior of the market, the most sensitive is the first month of the calendar year in which many traders still make decisions about opening new positions, the development of strategies for the coming year. The increase in J…
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wisdom_consultant avatar

FX_Tiger thank you :)

tarak807 avatar
tarak807 27 Oct.

Good

rashadali avatar
rashadali 27 Oct.

yes it is very useful to check seasonality )

Bidza avatar
Bidza 27 Oct.

It's my first time getting this idea that there could be distinct seasonality in FX too. Thank you.

Yggdrasills avatar

good job !

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14/52
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Before read article,
who didn't read the first article "USDCAD back in time" , (you found HERE ) , i advise to read it for understand the concept out below.
In the previous articles , first USDCAD than AUDUSD , we seen the correlation of these cross with own seasonality ,the correlation of USDCAD between the last seven years and actual movement to prove matter of this kind of Analisys.
From article “USDCAD back in time!

"Last Friday, there was the break of the high of thursday's candle , from chart we can see the PIN Bullish of friday , maybe a possible " trade can do at end of retracement in 1.2770 area , with stop under PIN (some pips more for fake break) . “
How many of you all did that trade?
How many gained more than 100pips with it?

I believe only who expected that , and who read my article on USDCAD!
USDCAD Daily chart at 17 June
The analisys on USDCAD not end, we are still in the seasonality movement and seen the last results, we can be more trustful on quality of this amazing forecast tool!
USDCAD Seasonality part 2
This time i analisted the cross with time frame H1 , always with seven years media.
Preamble
"I want explain that this type of analisys is
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Natalia_Kisenko avatar

good job!

Milian avatar
Milian 25 June

great article!)

hrustiashka avatar

Very good and informative article!

Forex_champion avatar

good job

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22/52
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Who from all of us at least once tried to prevent the market trend?
And I am not talking about target INTRADAY or of some BROKERS spot , I'm talking about speculating the market trend of the following weeks or even months!
In the last weeks I have done different season testing on many cross with stops until 20 years, though some are less evident than others, all the cross have shown repetitive behaviors!
Important times in the same period of the year, for years! Who has read my previous article on CAD, (you can find it HERE) knows what im talking about.
Actually this feature we know it already and is not a new, in fact as we know
the economic phases of the nations repeats and the coin represents an economic expression of that nation.

But how can we use this feature in FOREX?
Easy, the more a cross behavior happens in time, the more is the chance it will happen again!
With the accurate observations and technical analysis we can speculate the trend of a cross with accuracy and then position our self accordingly! Before the movement starts!
As you can guess the potential of this kind of analysis are evident, the chances of earning are incredible!
In the meanwhile express your opini…
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TRAD3R avatar
TRAD3R 23 June

thanks marina2016 ))

zarina avatar
zarina 24 June

Хорошая работа , интересная статья !

valter avatar
valter 24 June

Очень интересная статья!

TRAD3R avatar
TRAD3R 24 June

thanks :) zarina valter

Faster avatar
Faster 24 June

good work

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21/52
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Trader colleagues , in this article i'll steal a little of your time (no much, time is money! ) for a look on USDCAD and his seasonality.
Seasonality?! Don't forget that men do always same things, and currency too , i hope , but stop talking and go on. (sorry for my english , i know...)
First chart , USDCAD daily from 01 April - today
Surely setup of this cross is bull , in medio-long term , but we try to forecast a possible trend in the next weeks, start from this period but back in time! in these last seven years.
Second chart, USDCAD average 7 years 2009-2015 , 01 April - 31 August
It sounds familiar ?! This trend feature USDCAD from seven years in the same period , 1 April to 31 August. You not belive me?
Ok, i show you the next chart..
Third chart , USDCAD WEEKLY 2009-2016
How you can see from that, the seasonality is clear, not same al 100% but similar almost enough.
My idea "We be in a movement like "Cup and handle" in long term , and now we are on base of possible handle!"
This signal may be the start of a new trend long!
Of course , colleagues , the seasonality not is a cristal ball! But i believe that we should spent few minutes and think on "possibility " to risk little…
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TRAD3R avatar
TRAD3R 16 June

USDCAD 130,27 !!!! :P

Natalia_Kisenko avatar

well done!

brilliant avatar
brilliant 17 June

nice observations , good luck

Durden avatar
Durden 30 June

Probably you can find some support with the Hidden Markov models.
The cycles could be studied analitically with that models.
Thanks for the article and good trading

TRAD3R avatar
TRAD3R 30 June

Thanks u Durden , "Hidden Markov models" , thank you for the tip :)

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2/43
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In this article we’re going to look at both the technical setup as well as the fundamental themes that have been dictating the movements in the FX Market for the month of September and what’s going to drive the market forward in the coming month. The fact that we haven’t been able to see a rally in the equity market and a continuous decline in the US Dollar it tells us that something significant is happening, and that is a shift in the belief of monetary policy and its influences over the markets. We know that the monetary policy is one of the more proactive, impressive and constantly present mover in the market, it’s a theme that has been responsible for much of the moves that we had over the past month and year as well.
  • EUR/USD Fundamental&Technical Analysis

Without a doubt the major event of the month of September was the FED rate decision to hold interest rates near historically low level. However, despite no rate hike the Fed still remains one of the major Central Banks that still has a hawkish stance and the fact that they have stopped easing it’s reason enough to support the US Dollar at least in the short term. In comparison, the ECB is on the other side of the monetary …
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Daytrader21 avatar

Thank you all for the good words

Decebal avatar
Decebal 23 Oct.

Supetr article!

foreignexchange avatar

Great article, thanks Daytrader21

Olga18375 avatar
Olga18375 28 Oct.

Great, long, useful, interesting!! And this is all words for you) Because you have a good article)!

marius24 avatar
marius24 29 Oct.

as usual this article is well written and so far you predicted quite precisely Eur/usd

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4/21
Ranking

In this article, I'm going to talk about FX seasonality cycles and how they can improve your trading activity and why it should not be ignored. There is no mystery that the world is full of cycles and we're governed by them and the financial market are not exception of this rule. The majority of traders will either use technical analysis, fundamental analysis or a combination of both. But the seasonality cycles will bring in a new dimension in which you can analyse the market. The time element such as the time of the day, the day of the week, the month of the year could also play a big role in how certain FX pairs may behave. So when you focus your attention purely on price and time without the noise of indicators you may notice that some pattern shows up during certain time and this patterns are known as seasonality. Seasonality are a predictable change in price that repeats every day, week, month, year at the same period in time.
This seasonality cycles will only give you the tendency of an particular currency pair to bottom or top or rally or fall, at certain point in time. The seasonality is just an average so in this regard it's better not to use it in isolation but rather in…
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Daytrader21 avatar

Metal_Mind thanks for your insights @all thanks for your support

jezz avatar
jezz 29 Aug.

Seasonal trends are related to people habits. Even though money never sleeps, it does take some vacations, which can explain the seasonal trends. And the unreliability in post-break times can be related to late data of the industrial and similar activity during the 'low' times. I think :)

Daytrader21 avatar

jezz Long time since I've seen you around here.:) You're very much right about seasonal trends being related to people habits, that's one of the reason why I've become more interested in human psychology as well. It gives you another perspective of why people do certain things. I hope to see you more often commenting on my stuff:)

marius24 avatar
marius24 30 Aug.

one of the best article i have ever read in this contest. It seems that we have here a really good trader. Wish you to win this contest once again

psimmons63 avatar
psimmons63 12 Mar.

Very insightful article. I believe that seasonality gives traders the best edge in terms of technical indicators because its based on high probabilities. Do you cover any of the other majors?

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