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I in this article will try to show the example graphs of correlation and a forecast of the Russian ruble.
Why oil and the ruble should/can be connected? Briefly, the model is this: the exporters sell their oil for dollars and then sell dollars to get rubles for settlements within the country. The mechanism is extremely simplified, it is necessary to consider the volume of production and sale that escort is not only oil exporters do not always sell dollars on the currency exchange rate impact of Central Bank interventions, etc. Nevertheless, we assume that the model more or less work, i.e. that there are fundamental reasons for the relationship of oil prices and the ruble.
Oil Light daily chart
Russian Ruble daily chart

Both graphs give a real idea of the correlation between the price of crude oil and the ruble.
On average this correlation is in the range 0,75-0,97

Figure: did you make a wish?

Investment idea is to catch the moment when the market formed a relatively clear strengthening of oil prices on the ruble.

From time to time the market there are some inefficiencies when a barrel of oil in rubles begins to decline. Much of this market process, because the supply and demand f…
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massimoscalas avatar

Excellent Alivio: very interesting analisis

Natali_Niyazova avatar

хорошо написано, мне нравится твой слог!)

Olga18375 avatar
Olga18375 28 Jan.

Отличная! Понятна и интересная статья! Так держать

Sharpshooter avatar

Наталья, а ты хорошо знаешь английский?) Везуха( А мне кажется, что для меня переводчик потеряет этот слог((

Alivio avatar
Alivio 25 Feb.

хорошо что переводчик есть удобно сделали)

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Introduction
The price of oil has been under pressure since mid 2014. The risks on the price remain to the downside with no end in sight to the current turmoil. Chart 1 below shows daily chart of Brent Crude in USD in the Period November 2014 to October 2015.
Chart 1: Daily chart of Brent Crude
As is evident in the Chart 1, the price of oil has taken a battering over the past months. From a high of USD115 per barrel in June 2014, the price of oil had fallen USD86 by the 1st of November 2014 and has since fallen to USD 49.4 on the 30th of October 2014. The article,The Oil Story has an in-dept look at the fundamentals behind the fall in the oil prices.
The fall in the oil prices has had a negative impact on growth, inflation and inflation expectations across the globe. This article looks at some of the most traded currencies that have come out worse due the falling oil prices.

1. The Russian Ruble (RUB)

  • The economy
The Russian economy relies heavily on energy revenues to drive growth. The country has an abundance of natural resources, including oil, natural gas and precious metals, which make up a major share of Russia's exports. As of 2012 the oil-and-gas sector accounted …
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anna_n avatar
anna_n 18 Nov.

so good!

williamb avatar
williamb 20 Nov.

very interesting article

laxmi avatar
laxmi 24 Nov.

great job

foreignexchange avatar

great article
do you study also  the gas ?

llolor avatar
llolor 27 Nov.

foreignexchange  I haven't looked at gas mainly because i cannot trade it at the moment. However it is an interesting prospect and i will begin to analyse it too.

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