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Let's face facts; a month can represent an eternity in politics.
Just over a month ago, the Russian ruble soared to its highest level against the dollar in 18 months, against the backdrop of relatively high domestic interest rates and increased foreign investment. Donald Trump's courting of Russian President Vladimir Putin also improved relations between the Kremlin and the White House, creating far higher levels of business and investor sentiment across the board.
The U.S. President's hasty and surprising decision to intervene in Syria and sanction the bombing of a government airfield (in response to a reported chemical weapons attack) has cast a huge shadow over the political landscape, however, while sending American-Russian relations to a familiar low.
The Fall-out From the Intervention, and How it Hit the Russian Markets Hard
Quite aside from the validity of Trump's strike (particularly given the lack of defined intelligence) and the fact that such a move was diametrically opposed to one of his core campaign pledges, the intervention also hit the markets hard. Russia's currency and stock markets fell in the immediate aftermath of the strike sending ripples throughout the …
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rashadali avatar

good article

MarcusTJ91 avatar

many thanks everyone!

AnnaZhurina avatar

Супер !!!

RahmanSL avatar

Good fundamental analysis ...additional insight & useful for Analyst.

Skif avatar
Skif 17 May

Markets tend to switch attention. I think this will less pay attention.

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1. Introduction.
Les politiques de coopération entre la Chine et la Russie ont connu une accélération depuis les sanctions imposées à la Russie par l'union européenne et les États-Unis. L'ensemble de ces mesures visent à limiter l'exposition de ces deux pays face au dollar américain, plus encore, de s'affranchir à terme des plates-formes de négoce internationales actuelles et d'intéresser d'autres pays à cet ambitieux projet.
Nous passerons en revue quelques aspects de ces changements tels que le système de transactions monétaires internationales, les bourses d'échanges et les conséquences pour le dollar américain en tant que monnaie d'échange internationale.
Le réseau SWIFT est un système international, fondée en 1973 à Bruxelles et qui permet aux banques d'échanger des fonds par voie électronique. Ce système a considérablement réduit le coût des transactions et augmenté la rapidité des échanges par rapport au télex.
Faisant suite aux menaces de limiter l'accès de la Russie au système de transactions monétaires internationales, le gouvernement de Vladimir Poutine a mis en place son propre système d'échange entre banques russes. En parallèle, la Banque popula…
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Cristobal avatar
Cristobal 17 June

Very Good !!

SvetLena avatar
SvetLena 19 June


hrustiashka avatar

Very good article. Thank you!

Faster avatar
Faster 22 June

very good article

vikyllya avatar
vikyllya 23 June

very good

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An oil production freezing deal will be discussed on April 17th in Doha, Qatar.
Oil producing countries intend to freeze production without Iran’s support, who refuses to freeze or cut its output after years of sanctions.
The current global production is achieving record highs, prompting analysts to argue that an output freeze deal might not have a real impact in the oil market. International Energy Agency data’s (chart 1 & chart 2) points to an average production excess in 2015’s 4th quarter of 2 million barrels per day.
Eva Sjekelova [1] reporting Neil Atkinson, a senior executive at the International Energy Agency:
A freeze on production is perhaps rather meaningless. It's more some kind of gesture which perhaps is aimed
... to build confidence that there will be stability in oil prices.

Oil prices have been rebounding lately from January’s lows, relying almost on production freezing intentions. A dovish Fed, a weaker dollar and tiny recovery signals from China have boosted the process. Myra P. Saefong and Jenny W. Hsu [2] on China's oil consumption:
In February, China’s crude imports rose nearly 25% on-year to 31.8 million metric tons, equivalent to roughly 8
million barrels a day
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fx_lmcap avatar
fx_lmcap 18 Apr.


Mariia avatar
Mariia 21 Apr.

Interesting information

wisdom_consultant avatar

well written!

rajib217 avatar
rajib217 23 Apr.

Nice explanation

fxsurprise8 avatar

oil looks a bit high here

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The recent fall in oil prices is causing a downturn in stock markets all over the world.
Oil companies facing negative balance sheets are being pushed into labour force cuts and to delay future investments.
Times are also though for US shale oil producers. They have once deposited hopes that Saudi Arabia could bring some balance to the market. After the latest “freezing” negotiation developments, their last hopes might have completely vanished. Reporting Ellen R. Wald, [1] Modern Trader Magazine columnist:
Saudi Arabia can produce a barrel of oil at a cost of about $2. Even the best shale producers cannot produce a
barrel of oil for less than $50 a barrel. (...)

OPEC is not coming to bail out the shale oil producers. (...)

Saudi Arabia does not feel their pain (...) [it] may even welcome these minor inconveniences (...) [moving national]
economy towards some diversification.

Times are tough for shale producers and bankruptcies and asset sales are increasing. (...) Any relief producers
thought would come (...)
has not materialized.

OPEC member Saudi Arabia and non-OPEC Russia reached a principle of agreement on February 16th to freeze oil production at January's levels. Joining the Saudi[/moving][/it][/1]…
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wisdom_consultant avatar

very nice article! thank u!

EliasOmar avatar
EliasOmar 22 Mar.

well done bro ..

art_Alena avatar
art_Alena 24 Mar.

very good article!

angelina_may avatar

i like your pictures))

Olkiss70 avatar
Olkiss70 31 Mar.

good article!

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The past two years have been a roller-coaster ride for the USDRUB. The Rouble (RUB) was the worst performing currency in 2014 but it has had a remarkable turnaround and is now on of the best performing currencies in 2015 to date. This article looks at the state of the Russian economy and currency.

Russia’s economic indicators

  • Gross Domestic Product
With a population of more than 143 million people, Russia ranks in the top 10 of the global economies by GDP. According to IMF statistics the GDP in Russia stood at USD 2,709.13 billion in 2013 before shedding 31% to USD 1,857.46 billion in 2014. The GDP is expected to fall further in 2015 as the oil prices remain depressed, economic sanctions likely to remain in place and the geopolitical tensions least likely to ease in 2015. Fig 1 shows the GDP statistics for 2013 and 2014 as well as projections to 2020 (in white).
Fig 1: Russia’s GDP and GDP estimates
  • Inflation
Annual inflation rate in Russia slowed to 15.8 percent in May of 2015 from 16.4 percent in the previous month as increase in cost of food and housing eased. Fig 2 below shows the inflation developments in 2014 and 2015.
Fig 2: Russia’s Inflatio
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YuliyaNaumova avatar

good job

Agnessa26 avatar
Agnessa26 27 June

Good job =)

Natalia_Kisenko avatar

very interesting!

Olga18375 avatar

Good article, as always!!!

wienerschinken avatar

Lol seems that ma and macd are working perfectly on this pair. Good article.

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On December 15th, at midnight, the Russian Central Bank held an emergency meeting. The currency was in free fall, caused by a deadly mix of lower oil prices and western sanctions. The Rouble lost almost 50 percent of its value in four short months. On December 15th, the USD/RUB closed the day at 65.82, a massive 15 percent higher in a single day. Something had to be done.
The Russian Central Bank decided to hike interest rates by a shocking 650 basis points, from 10.5% to 17%. ‘’We had a choice between the very bad and the very, very bad’’, Sergei Shvetsov, the deputy governor of Bank would later say.
A Flash From the Past
I woke up that day staring at a 10% gain in the Ruble. The USD/RUB was now quoted at 59.50. After a quick double-take and a check on Bloomberg, I realize the reason behind the rally. But as everyone was busy buying Rubles, I got a flashback of Black Wednesday 1992. During most of 1992 Britain was busy propping up the Pound in order to keep it within the boundaries set by the ERM (Exchange Rate Mechanism). After spending massive amounts of money, the Bank of England took one last desperate step.
On September 16th 1992 at 11:00 AM, the BOE jacked up …
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Convallium avatar
Convallium 27 Jan.

wonderful article! I sometimes trade with usd/rub

fxsurprise8 avatar

During the weekend Russia intensified its offensive in Ukraine. A shelling that killed 30 civilians in Mariupol sparked new calls for sanctions in Brussels. The EU called an extraordinary meeting of foreign ministers for Thursday but analysts think that there will be no new sanctions until next month summit. A lot will depend on how far Putin goes this time. An all out attack on Mariupol will no doubt lead to further US/EU sanctions.

I got again long USD/RUB on Monday anticipating the reaction of the West. Near the end of day I got a present by S&P, which downgraded Russia's debt to junk.

fxsurprise8 avatar

Here are some links as well as a picture of my most recent trades. Sorry for the poor formatting, Dukascopy automatically places everything at the top.

Again my total loss is limited to just $100. My stoploss is set at 62.60, just below the most recent swing low in the pair. My target is above the December highs in the USD/RUB, around 77.80. I will watch price action if we reach these levels and look for an exit. As you can see on the pic, I'm currently up $50.

fxsurprise8 avatar

Another update: The Ruble selling intensified on Friday after the Russian Central Bank unexpectedly cut interest rates from 17% to 15%. This prompted me to add another position of 2,000 on a break of the important 70.00 round figure.

Initially the trade went in my favor as the USD/RUB rallied to a high of 71.87 on Friday. The pic above was taken near the highs of the day. But as the day was nearing its end, the jump in oil prices led to gains in the Ruble and I was forced to close my new 2,000 position at 70.52 for a small gain of $12.

fxsurprise8 avatar

Final update on my January Ruble trades. The rally in oil continues unabated after a Friday report that showed the number of U.S. oil-drilling rigs down by 94 in the past week, the largest one-week decrease since 1987. As the black gold was preparing to break the important 50.00 mark, I placed a stoploss on my two remaining USD/RUB longs at 68.30.

I was taken out later in the day, for a net profit of $64.50. Together with my earlier closed trade of $12.13, the total for this series of trades is at +76.63. You can see all 3 trades in the pic above.

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No more than 2 weeks ago I've made an analysis over Ukraine crisis and what does it means to the market, if you wish you can read my blog post here: Olympics and Stock Market Correlation. Cycle of War
I've also draw a parallel between: "1980 Moscow Olympic game, Russia invaded Afghanistan. 2014 Sochi Olympic game, Ukraine next? I seepatterns everywhere" I have to say that I'm just amazed by the accuracy of my prediction and how things have unfolded.
Also another remark was that we have to keep an eye over the currency market as this geopolitical event will trigger massive outflows from Ukraine’s currency Hryvnia, and since than we hit historic new lows almost each day as the Hryvnia was in a free fall (see Figure 1).
Another remark I've made was about what tactics Russia will engage in:"It seems Russia has learned from the 1980's boycott and that's the reason why they didn't demand action in Ukraine before the Olympics." basically I was saying that any Russian intervention will only take place after the Olympics. I'll have to say again that I'm very impress by the accuracy of my predictions and my thinking. I've…
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Daytrader21 avatar

Airmike I'm aware of that phone call but to be honest with you, right now there is a lot of manipulations and sabotage from both sides  trying to create more confusion among people. This is always about government who want more and more power and to retain that power at all cost.

Daytrader21 avatar

jezz I've made here an update, 1 week ago, where I give as a conservative target $1433 but we only got $1391. Right now the move seems overdone, draw a trend line from the last swing low$1182 connecting all the lows and you will see we're retesting that TL, if that TL doesn't hold down we go. I'm not expecting much to happen right now, play both sides:

Airmike avatar
Airmike 22 Mar.

[email protected] it is definitely good point. Manipulation is part of this problem. But I guess that tape is real and comes from Russian Intelligence agency. I am not an expert but I see some fraction with strong interest to keep Ukraine in "dark pool". Away from Russia and close to EU. EU doesn't know whats going on there anyway and that's the chance to keep power for business. My apology to guys and girls from Ukraine if I am wrong, but my country was in same situation 25 years ago and I remember  type of the people who took advantage from this situation after revolution.

Daytrader21 avatar

Airmike There was never a question the tape not being true, it was already confirmed by the Estonian foreign ministry but at the same time they can be totally clueless about what has really happened there. No matter what side Ukraine will choose to be, the Ukraine's economy will enter in deep recession which ultimately will affect all the people, they are the one who will pay the bills for this mess. I have the same desire as you, and I want Ukraine closer to EU rather than Russia. Wars doesn't start out of the blue there is a strong correlation with the sheer economics turning down

jezz avatar
jezz 23 Mar.

Now I'm thinking of the EU picture. As EU exports are huge to Russia, how will this affect the economy, that is the market that is interesting to us, in the following months. Threats to Russia seem like poking a sleeping bear (the animal, not the market), and that is a golden one

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