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Le trading est une activité très hautement stressante, une des sources de ce stress est l'incertitude qui est la règle dans le forex.
Cependant pour un trader un minimum de confiance et une certaine connaissance de la nature du risque encouru est nécessaire.
Dans cette optique j'ai décidé d'étudier dans cet article la paire GBPJPY, connue pour être une des plus volatiles du forex, pour essayer de dégager des conclusions utiles au trader.

2.Matériel et méthode
L'étude portera sur le range daily de la paire GBPJPY, les données utilisées ont été extraites de la base de données historiques Dukascopy.
Le traitement des données a été fait après avoir importé les données dans le tableur Open Office.
La première partie de l'étude porte sur la fréquence des jours de grand range, et leur répartition dans le temps.
La deuxième partie se focalise sur l'étude des jours dont le range dépasse les 700 pips pour essayer de trouver des patterns.
Une conclusion et des recommandations pratiques seront déduites en fin.

3.Présentation des données
Les données ont été extraites à partir de la bases de données historiques Dukascopy, en utilisant l’outil Historical Data Manager.
Le résult…
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CharmingRimma avatar

beautiful article


nice work

RIANNA avatar

très bien ????

Helena_Prekrasnaj avatar

good historical analysis, it was very interesting to read!

fxsurprise8 avatar

solid stuff here, in French too!

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Hello everyone. In this article I will explain to you one of my live trade with pair EUR/AUD and I will explain to you my trading system in the range. “Trend is your friend” is ok for me. I would like to open my trades only in the direction of the trend. But what in case if there is no trend? Can I find any trade opportunity in this case? In the range price is in sideway moves. Price establish support and resistance and moves between them. See the following examples with forex currency pairs, all are daily time frame: NZD/USD, EUR/USD and EUR/AUD. All have perfect range for me:
Range is not always bad because for me can sometimes mean a good opportunity for trade. I have a rule: I do not trade breakout of the range because the price may still return. The rules of good range for me are: strong level of support and strong level of resistance and price have to bounce up from support and price have to bounce down from resistance. Not all ranges are ok for me. The best range not have zigzag moves between of support level and resistance level. If price create valid price pattern, than I can trade it. Best pattern for me is pin bar. What is pin bar? Please look next picture with explanati…
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Ange_Farouche avatar

thank u for sharing ur experience!

geula4x avatar
geula4x 30 Dec.

+1 Liked: Nice article + clear examples! :-)

dntrader avatar
dntrader 30 Dec.

Thank you to all :)

alifari avatar
alifari 30 Dec.

good one

agddivisas avatar
agddivisas 30 Dec.

"I do not like indicators. I found that I do not need them. The best indicator for me is price. I use for analysis only support line and resistance line and trend line. Classical elements of price action."
I agree with this.

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Trading from the comfort of your home has never been more easier than it's today when you have brokers like Dukascopy that provides every trader with the right tools to succeed in this business and ultimately have an edge over others competitors. Many new traders believe that an automated strategy must incorporate some kind of indicators. Well, the truth is you don't actually need indicators to trade, and here comes my article to help you design your own automated strategy using Visual JForex. My last article EMA Crossover System Meets Visual JForex outlined an incredible simple step-by-step guide on how to create your own automated strategy using indicators. Also I strongly recommend you to get used with the Visual JForex interface by watching Dukascopy tutorials.
Unlike my previous article here I'm going to use new blocks and we are going a little bit deeper and make a strategy that's more challenging without using any indicators whatsoever. It's time for y…
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Daytrader21 avatar

(continuation) GetTimeUnits block-Settings-TimeUnit-Hour

2)London Open group: "IF logic" block uses as first parameter the variable current_time3 that we have just create, this variable stores the time that goes through the candles at the present moment and compares it with a new variable that we are going to create London_Open which has the value 8(8:00GMT) We want to know when current_time3 is London_Open only than the cycle will be completed and move to the next blocks.

Daytrader21 avatar

Just click on the images they will zoom in and thy will become much more clear. If you still have problems with that send me a PM with your email and I'll send you the originals pictures and if you want I'll send you the strategy code to compare your work and see if it's the same.

Maria_r avatar
Maria_r 24 Oct.

wow. Like! +1

juandata avatar
juandata 15 Nov.

Thanks Daytrader, I can finallly see the images. I will send you a message so we can compare the strategies. Thanks.

andysagerli avatar

Daytrader21  Hi, I like this post. I would like to rebuild, but the screenshots doesn't open when I click them. Can You send me the screenshots?
Thank You

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This trade was executed as part of a methodology of identifying and aggressively trading short-term movements across the currency market. More precisely, it involves targeting high probability 100- Pip opportunities in the direction of the weekly trend for each currency pair using key Candlestick Patterns and Signals across time frames. Each trade is held for no more than a day and a half, ending before the close of the trading session the following day at 5 00 PM EST. An average Stop Loss of 40 Pips is used when entering each trade, giving a Risk-Reward Ratio of 2,5 on average for each 100-Pip trade. It is somewhat of a middle ground between Day Trading and Swing Trading as it targets a range that is similar to the average Daily Range of the most liquid pairs (70- 120 Pips), but takes place within the context of the larger 7-day Weekly Trend (300 – 500 pips). SUMMARY OF THE TRADE- APRIL 17, 2013 Ø This trade involved anticipating Bear Crown formations on both the 4 Hour and Daily Charts, within the context of the pullback taking place below Support of the Weekly Chart´s Range. Ø The trade setup on the 4H Chart was the expected formation of the Right Tip of the Crown after the…
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highwayman avatar
highwayman 23 Apr.

Nice +1 Found The Bear And It's Crown :) Thanks And Good Luck This Month :)

DaddyPapi avatar
DaddyPapi 23 Apr.

Special .. these work on all long as the patterns are there..respek Highwayman..

Likerty avatar
Likerty 24 Apr.

Its also common that after three LLs or HHs in a row price tends to reverse (or enters in to choppy consolidation range)

DaddyPapi avatar
DaddyPapi 24 Apr.

That looks to be the case now on 4H chart

Efegen avatar
Efegen 25 Apr.

I am not good at drawing but i like it:) +1

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IntroductionMachine learning is a field of artificial intelligence where computer programs learn instead of blindly following a script. With enough training data you can teach those algorithms to drive a car, pilot a helicopter or build the best search engine in the world. Here are the results I obtained with my initial approach at applying machine learning to forex trading.Thechnical ConsiderationsA variety of algorithms are put in place to try and predict the evolution of an instrument with data from only 8 daily bars into the past. For each day, four values are recorded, the first three record information on the movement from the previous day’s close to the day’s high, low and close, in percent while the fourth records the volume for the day. This makes for 32 independent variables total. The data is obtained from three instruments in the dukascopy database, EURUSD, AUDJPY and GBPCHF daily Ask bars from the 1st January 2008 to the 31th December 2011, with weekends blended in the following Monday. For each of the algorithms tested, the first two years were used to train the models while 2012 was used to test them. The open java library for machine learning algorithms used comes f…
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PipSpinner avatar
PipSpinner 13 Dec.

I don't have the reputation to like this yet, but thanks for the great article! Have you tried applying any ML to depth of market and volume data?

olga avatar
olga 16 Dec.

I have applied it to volume data and throughout the day for example it is quite possible to predict the volume based on the time of day. for example it's easy to predict there will be a bottom at midnight and that the overall volume will resemble the previous day but meaningfull differences are hard to predict. I suppose it would be similar for market depth but I have never looked into such data.

Aircooled avatar
Aircooled 22 Jan.

Good article. Unfortunately audience here is not "ready" for such stuff.

campione avatar
campione 13 Sep.

Nice article :)  I assume you used period of 2008~2011 static data as input, I need to do something like this with live data, to analysis the live data and give me live decisions.  Could you implement something like this? I'm happy to help you to do this together if you are up to? ;) best of luck for you in trading

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Following the significant gains for the US Dollar last month that were in sync with
safe-haven actions across the financial markets, many of the major currency
pairs appear set to recoup these losses in the weeks ahead. With the Aussie and
Kiwi already gaining several hundred pips in the last few days, the Euro and
the Pound are likely to follow suit with similar gains of their own.
The Weekly Chart
below for this currency pair shows us that we have been moving within an 800-Pip
range since October of 2011. After falling to Support recently at 1.5300, there has now been a sharp U-turn in the form of a
Morning Star bullish candlestick formation. This is a strong indication that
the pair will head towards the Resistance area of 1.6150 over the next few
weeks before either falling once more to Support or breaking the boundary to go
long. A similar pattern of movement is also taking place with the Aussie Dollar
which has hit the Support of its
Weekly Chart Pennant to start a major uptrend.
 As we can see
from the Daily Chart for the Aussie, this uptrend began with a pair of Double
Bottoms and a break of the Inner Down…
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LinnuxFX avatar
LinnuxFX 20 June

As usual, great analysis of the market, good luck...

scramble avatar
scramble 20 June

overall i agree with the study. i would add 2 problems before the 6150 one: 1st problem will be just below 58 area (see these days..); 2nd problem will be near 59 area. by my side, i prefer take the trend in steps, but also possible this kind of attempt! good luck :-)

pichou avatar
pichou 22 June

the engulfing candles pattern on the weekly chart as of june 22nd indicate a continuation pattern. if the first candle of next week has long pins be careful it could easily drop to 1.52

DaddyPapi avatar
DaddyPapi 23 June

guess I was wrong

doctortyby avatar
doctortyby 27 June

You can afford to be wrong if you use a propper money and risk management. :)

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traders use technical indicators to support their entry and exit decisions.  But not all indicators are appropriate for
all situations. Some indicators, such as the stochastic oscillator, are best
applied in situations where recent price has moved in a range. Other tools,
such as MACD or OsMA, are more accurately used when recent price has moved in a
trend.   How, then, do we know which tool
to use? Let me show you have to use ADX as the tie breaker.
ADX, or
Average Directional Index, measures the strength of a move.  Since it takes a certain amount of strength
to break support or resistance levels  - which mark the boundaries of a defined range - we can use ADX to
provide us with an indication of how likely the upcoming support or resistance
level is to hold and, consequently, whether we should use an oscillator (range)
or a momentum indicator (trend) to give us further confirmation that our entry
or exit decision is a high odds play.
When you
add ADX to a chart, it will show you three lines:  The main line (ADX), which is the one that we
are most concerned with; the Plus Directional Indicator (+DI) and the Minus
Directional Indicator (-DI).  These last
two DI lines provide d…
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dwtrader avatar
dwtrader 19 Apr.

good stuff - i use adx all the time

jjens avatar
jjens 19 Apr.

good stuff mate

fxtom avatar
fxtom 22 Apr.

higher lows, lower highs.. the trend you get from the price chart. but alright, adx can help you dertermine current strength, i just dont think that any pros use it

TBFX avatar
TBFX 22 Apr.

@fxtom, you are right, the pros certainly don't use adx (those at tier 1 banks) because they have the holy grail in forex trading: the order book

belman avatar
belman 26 Apr.

Good luck to you, your article is very good.

orto leave comments
Many traders say that most setups (or even all) are profitable. And trader’s outcome depends on his or her personal qualities – psychology, risk management, respect of rules and plan, etc. Well, I agree with that. But I noticed one thing, which probably is already known to many traders – different setups works or doesn't work on different market conditions. So in my point of view – the most important thing is to identify what kind of market we are in. If we would be able to do that – trading would become much easier. And especially it’s important for automated trading strategies. Most strategies in the market trade profitably only in one type of market. So a user may identify market’s condition and switch on or off the robot. I will try to describe these market conditions and below. Trending market.Trending market I call the market, which moves nicely according to trend. Trend lines can be drawn (figure below) easily.We all know a saying - “the trend is your friend”. It’s very easy to trade in trending market. We saw this in pre-crisis times. Every person could become an “analytic” and buy some trending stocks, futures, currency pairs, etc. They were just buying with the t…
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jonas avatar
jonas 24 Sep.

Interesting article. I think it's useful.

adask avatar
adask 26 Sep.

Besides - now we have a real nice ranging EURUSD market. And it's looking to break in any direction. One false break out down we already had.

Erialda avatar
Erialda 29 Sep.

Good article , +1 buddy

jurga1s avatar
jurga1s 30 Sep.

Last day of competition. Good luck.

egidijus avatar
egidijus 30 Sep.

Interesting article. Good luck!

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