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I have been searching best topic for my next article and I found something what can be interesting for all beginners in trading and especially in quantitative trading. The name of this article may sound weird but truth is that it is fact and I would like to share the way how I made this profit. The key idea of this article is not about profit. Key idea is about way how I achieved this goal. Let’s take a look on details.
My way in options trading
I spent some time by reading a blogs and community discussions about option trading. I found only one useful information. Best advice I ever read. Before you place the trade you have to analyze.
It’s pretty simple. Most of you wouldn't believe that all you need to know is find an idea which is valid. Then you have to prove it. Analyze before trade is my favorite phrase.
I don’t want to say that other informations were useless but in my case they were not powerful enough. For example there was a one dogmatic hypothesis which assumes that you as an options trader have to participate only on sell side (writing an option). You have to sell options first and then take credit premium. Reason is that value of the option is decreasing in time. This…
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Airmike avatar
Airmike 23 Oct.

thank you guys

anderspirlo avatar

the fun is if  you can make 1 million usd to 1100 percent profits for 12 million usd ... you will be shaken and nerves will come into play . ....:)

Airmike avatar
Airmike 24 Oct.

anderspirlo I wish I was able to trade 1M. the problem is that broker will never let you play once he realized that your profits are in thousand of percent. This was biggest and only one problem in this trading strategy. you can not trade this strategy in big scale. Once you are profitable , you are above  the radar and broker knows that he have to stop you.

Rita1808 avatar
Rita1808 24 Oct.

Good job!

love_crusader avatar

Nice pictures :)

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In this article, I would like to share very simple concept of quantitative trading and forecasting of financial markets. First of all, let’s describe what quantitative trading is about. Quantitative trading is trading based on mathematical and statistical interpretation of the market. Most of the time is about historical data but that is only piece of this concept. I will show you simple way of market forecasting based on historical data.
Implementation of Quantitative Analysis – Algorithmic Trading
Quantitative analysis has very high relationship with algorithmic trading. As you may expect, all algorithms around a globe are designed based on quantitative analysis of data-sets. There is many ways how to analyze. For this article I choose simplest data sample to show you where the advantage of this method is.
Data Quality
One of the most important things in quantitative trading is ability to choose quality of data samples. Many people think that validity of back testing is higher with bigger data samples. Truth is that samples suppose to be corresponding with time frame you want to analyze. For example if we want to predict market in next 10 seconds, choosing 10 years o…
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mesiar avatar
mesiar 24 Sep.

very interesting article

rokasltu avatar
rokasltu 24 Sep.

Very interesting approach for exchange rate predictions. I think maybe it is feasible to tie this analysis with some indicators?

foreignexchange avatar

congratulations : )

CriticalSection avatar

excellent effort, well done!

PPandM avatar
PPandM 19 Oct.

well done

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I have been discovering many ways how to measure potential of trading strategies for last few years and I would like to say there is no a best way. During my discovering I found few methods which are able to quantify potential of trading strategy and I would like to introduce one of them. MAE & MFE is probably one of the simplest methods how to measure potential of trading system. I found this method as a first method and I like this most. MAE & MFE is analysis mostly used by directional algorithmic traders. Beauty of this method is in simplicity.
Maximum Favorable Excursion (MFE)– is a maximal unrealized profit during the period.
Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)– is a maximal unrealized loss during the period.
You can find lot of definition of MAE & MFE on the internet. Some of them use term during the open trade. This specification can be right but during the trade means that you already have an and you want to close trade on SL or PT. By hitting one of these closing orders you can get stats but those stats are automatically corrupted and you will never get a potential of the strategy in time scale out of it. If you want to get real and pure stats out of the testing, you need to…
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Metal_Mind avatar
Metal_Mind 26 Mar.

You ve done an excelent job with the article. I  and think so many others will appreciate it. I  also never heard of this method. It is good to learn new things. PS . It a real shame that we can t see properly the images with the data that you worked to  present here. I observed this problem on other articles to. I hope dukas wil find a solution to display the images in  magnified or fullscreen if possible. If not maybe an atachment section to download images would be welcome. Nice job with the article. Keep it up !!

Metal_Mind avatar
Metal_Mind 26 Mar.

Sorry about  this (nbsp) keybord has some problems.

Airmike avatar
Airmike 26 Mar.

next time I will make a tests and I can post a print screen with result of the test. This article should be some introduction for those who want to try new model of analysis.

Convallium avatar
Convallium 29 Mar.

Airmike, good luck! Interesting thoughts)

Nick_T avatar
Nick_T 17 Apr.

Airmike , good job.

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Results of technical analysis contest

I saw in the article library some guides “How to win” this contest or that contest and I have to say, I am bit afraid few of them are not very useful. Even if these easy steps don't work, guys who wrote these articles won in article contest. That's the good reason to show something I have done in past months. I also would like to use this magic words combination in this article but I can't offer guarantee that some people can win. What I can offer is real track record in technical analysis contest, because I won some money almost every round. Problem is that I haven't trade my forecasts, because I thought that most of these analyses are too risky for real market. I would like to show you how wrong I was about this opinion. This is a complete research of every single analysis I put to the technical analysis contest from beginning of the contest in April till November.

In picture below you can see all my forecasts. Blue color is long position and red color is short position. You can see entry price and close price of each analysis.
In next table you can see profit and loss of every single analysis. Red color is loss and blue is profit.
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seediee avatar
seediee 20 Jan.

Nice, you really put a big effort to create the article and charts. It is very important to write journal every day. :) keep going!

anton_dang avatar
anton_dang 20 Jan.

well done :)

Metal_Mind avatar
Metal_Mind 20 Jan.

The article is nice. I love the images but you didn't told us the secret. You only told us that you use quantitive analyses. Nonetheless great job here and great job in TA.

Airmike avatar
Airmike 20 Jan.

:) marketing :). No I can explain everything but to be honest, I don't want to let my competitors to beat me that easy. I want to keep something for myself.

pacho74 avatar
pacho74 23 Jan.

good job +1

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