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What the market has priced in already...

As we see, we are around the level of post referendum, when Brexit, especially hard Brexit was not certain at all. This is quite an optimistic and strong reaction from the market. The market has priced in almost a reversal in British approach.
No hard Brexit is just a hope

What we have to remember as traders is that right now it is just hopes priced in, without generally any hard facts to support them yet.
As it is used to be said 'sell the gossip, buy the fact'. The facts are still to be seen and assesed while gossip sold pretty well, giving disconnected with reality 180 degree sentiment change in the market.
Why disconnected? Well, maybe polls are not trusted recently, but this time they show Conservative Party being 20% ahead. That is quite a decisive prediction. Lead by Theresa May and her party, British would have hard Brexit almost assured, that is unless the party itself had huge internal differences in Brexit approach.
It seems that market just might have gotten a bit too excited again, this time to the upside.
The most positive scenario
Even if hard Brexit was somehow forgotten by the government, there still would be Brexit on the…
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mariailkiv avatar
mariailkiv 24 Apr.

хорошая статья!!

LizaQ avatar
LizaQ 24 Apr.

Great!

hrustiashka avatar

Good article. Thanks

antoniogreenblue avatar

Interesting

RahmanSL avatar

Useful article

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How did I come to conclusion that avoiding pairs with USD might be a good idea for some time?

Although I agree that US election definitely was a great, tradeable opportunity (though not an easy one), right now I see no certain direction that FX majors will go this month. After the election things went out totally out of control. We had several situation when USD moved opaque to data reads due to new President's decisions causing major upset and mayhem across the markets. Probably some will say it is their kind of environment to trade on - volatile, sometimes rapid. Yet everyone has to agree that we have a high risk of unscheduled and unpredictable events moving USD now in a rather unknown direction.
Sometimes it is better to play safe instead of lose looking for enormous moves, in other words, better safe than sorry. The conclusion to avoid USD pairs for some time comes logical as we should base our trades on past, meaning technical analysis or on extrapolation of past data, meaning fundametal analysis and both do not work as it should now. It is also difficult to base trades on Mr Trump since he uses to tell contradictory things.

Is there anywhere to run?

Yes, the…
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ak10 avatar
ak10 8 Feb.

Rightly explained. Very useful.

antoniogreenblue avatar

Good explained. Related do GBP I like and trade the GBP/JPY ;)

Beto avatar
Beto 12 Feb.

It seems to be nice work with cross pairs for now, good share of information and research.

FXRabbit avatar
FXRabbit 23 Feb.

Well written!

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 24 Apr.

Great job!

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