On the first Friday after the month ends, two important news release by Bureau of Labor Statistics. One is unemployment rate and the other one (the more or perhaps the most important one) is non-farm payrolls (NFP). NFP accounts for a majority of overall economic activity and show changes in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry. Unemployment rate is an important signal of overall economic health and it is Percentage of the total work force that is unemployed. In this article, I try to show the influence of these indicator on USD index return based on portfolio analysis.
portfolio analysis means that NFP & unemployment rate data are sorted into 10 portfolios from lowest to highest separately and USD index returns of each portfolio are examined for evidence of anomaly;. Portfolio analysis intuitively, clearly reflects the picture of how returns vary with the characteristic variable; however, with this method it is difficult to conduct multivariate tests and difficult to test the functional form. In the picture below, basket is NFP or unemployment rate and eggs are USD index return.
In this researc…