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4/30
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Over the last 2 years the market has been changing a lot and we saw across the board many currency pairs has started moving away from those nasty big range zone and have been shifted towards more clear trendsTrend trading can be as difficult as range trading if you don't understand the characteristic of this new type of environment, and you need new adequate rules to be able to profit in the market. In this regard my article is going to provide you with some core basics and unique rules that have been helping me to trend trading with a unique strategy
A healty trading market is when we move step by step: Consolidation - Breakout type of move. As a general rule if a market is moving in a consolidation or a range trading box or a base, followed by a breakout and than repeat the process, than the market is doing what it should be doing (see Figure 1). One of the best hedge fund managers PT Jones has explained this process quite simple, and I'm quoting him here:
The basic premise of the system is that market move sharply, when they move. If there is a sudden range expansion in a market that has been trading narrowly, human nature is to try to fade that price move. When you get a r…
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Daytrader21 avatar

Thank you all for your support, much appreciated

cocciolla avatar
cocciolla 24 Jan.

Excellent article,good luck

foreignexchange avatar

Great great article, many traders probably utilyze this set of informations  without formulate a strategy.
It could be probably matter of study to evaluate the Standard Deviation considering the different scale.
...... Also if you probably think that there is invariance of scale  : )
Good job 

aslamhammad avatar

Nice work :)

Likerty avatar
Likerty 30 Jan.

wonderful article!

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12/19
Ranking

Introduction
This article will serve as a precursor to my next article in the series, where I go into detail describing my Bollinger Band Breakout Strategy. The article aims to provide a good foundation on Bollinger Bands as a technical analysis tool.
Bollinger Bands are named after the creator John Bollinger. As pictured on the right.
He is a technical analyst that developed the tool as a measure of volatility. He has wrtten a book titled "Bollinger on Bollinger Bands" and is considered the foremost expert on the subject.
He also currently runs a website and has a pay service where he analyzes the markets for setups as per different bollinger band strategies he has developed.
Without going into excessive detail on the construction of Bollinger Bands, to briefly illustrate I will provide some examples of different types of setups and information that can be obtained from the bands. The bands themselves are a measure of volatility based on previous price action. They utilize the simple moving average and the amount of data to be measured back is input by the user. The standard settings, and often the default is based on a 20 period Moving average.
I will illustrate some of the com…
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MobNaga avatar
MobNaga 30 Oct.

bbnads, I like too.

alincik avatar
alincik 31 Oct.

Well done! Good luck!

WallStreetBlog avatar

Interesting!

Valeriia_Novikova avatar

Thanks, useful article ! My best wishes to you!

forexfunction avatar

nice explanation .
this is really helpful for us.
we want more article like this.

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11/23
Ranking

Introduction :
My first thoughts on Forex were that it is driven by hydraulics - pressure. I am a technical trader and have maintained this standing and built my practice around it. I am sure there are many theories on price movement, however, I shall share my personal view.
Content :
The best way to describe my opinion on price movement is through the analogy of a labyrinth of walls and mazes. To me, the price is not random but rather like a Bouncing Ball arcade game. Each wall offers a degree of pressure and drives the price in a direction. Some walls will offer a lot of pressure, some walls just a little. If the price is coming off a strongly pressurized wall, it might fly through a lesser wall. But mostly there will at least be a pause at a wall, no matter it's strength, although not always and often, if it has already bounced, it might pass through a second time without argument. As the price moves in a direction, it will bounce off many walls, back and forth, until it comes to rest against a support or resistance that is too strong. At that point, it will reverse and begin the process again.
The truly exhausting thing about Forex is that there are so many walls, from the 1 M…
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Polinka avatar
Polinka 30 July

Good luck!))

Stix avatar
Stix 31 July

Thanks Polinka ,ANABEVZ , VikaChechenkova ...

Stix avatar
Stix 31 July

Also thanks to Olga18375 , Ange_Farouche , Elani ...

Stix avatar
Stix 31 July

Noyarsh, Neu_spir8 !, leon09 and to FXDream, lupyyyy, Likerty and llolor. Much appreciated !

Stix avatar
Stix 31 July

Many more thanks to INFINITEisTHElimit for the Genius Inspiration... ! :)

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1/30
Ranking
Intro:

There are many Short term trading strategies - many of which can be seen with various articles here, they range from simple Moving average crosses, to using overbought/oversold signals and many, many more technical indicators. Broadly speaking, a rules based strategy involves no skill and this applies to both shorter term and longer term strategies. However, market participants need to know when to use each - for example, using RSI is unlikely to work to effectively over the course of 20 years, but can work quite well on a 30-minute chart, likewise using any of the three main multi year strategies fail to work on shorter term timeframes.
Here is a quick look at some simple short term strategies and their backtests (tested on the AUDUSD), while there are some profitable ones, sharpe ratios and Max DD's are awful and thus these will fail in the long run.
Long term FX strategies:

As highlighted above, there are literally 1,000's of techniques that are used in trading, yet only 3 have stood the test of time, these are as follows; Carry, Value and Momentum. I will look at each one individually to explain what they are, and why they have been successful.
Carry:

Th…
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Daytrader21 avatar

You're correct on the Risk on/risk off environment, if you run a correlation between risk trends like S&P500 and overlaying AUD/USD it can bee seen that from last year's summer the correlation has broke, as SP500 runs to new all the highs and at the same time aussie breaking lower. But at some extend on short time periods this relationships are still present.

mimuspolyglottos avatar

Becoming Hall of Famer. Very glad to see article about trading style of mine. The risk of prolonged stability with low volatility is in a situation,  when people have to put in trade more and more to meet their profit targets. In carries (almost) all use the same approach and  same techniques making ''pump&dump" conditions. This article is useful for me because I have been trying to build carry baskets (risk-adjusted) since 2007 to fund low vols pairs trading (USD/SGD,CHF/EUR).

mimuspolyglottos avatar

Thank You very much.

Armands avatar
Armands 14 Apr.

I guess that in future all central banks will set their interest rates near to 0% and then there will be no carry trades :)Other two I never knew, so I learnt something new. Good job!

dntrader avatar
dntrader 11 June

I like long term forex strategies.

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10/33
Ranking
Regression-based High-probability Momentum Buy Strategy A. Introduction The strategy begins with a weekly support and resistance setup which establishes the buy zone of the week. When the market is trending up and the price falls into the predetermined trade zone, a set of trigger indicators will cast their votes to decide whether it is a favorable time to buy. Once an order is active, indicator-based stops will stay on guard. Those indicators will trigger sell signals when price and volume converge and price volatility is low, warning signs of an impending exhaustion in the prevailing uptrend. In essence, the strategy aims to secure the best possible closing price before the prevailing uptrend is broken. The strategy put forth uses moving averages to define the trend, Bollinger Band to determine price volatility, and divergence of Demand Index and price regression to gauge and forecast the strength of an uptrend. B. Four indicators 1. Weekly Fibonacci Support and Resistance Setup Every Monday, the strategy observes the market condition before establishing weekly support and resistance levels of the week. First, the indicator uses moving averages to divide the price development lea…
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alifari avatar
alifari 3 May

Nice article

PPandM avatar
PPandM 7 May

Well done! Cheers! :)

fxReader avatar

Thanks for all your comments and likes! It's great to share ideas here!! Happy trading:)

Likerty avatar
Likerty 21 May

very nice article:)

Efegen avatar
Efegen 21 May

Seems nice +1

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8/35
Ranking
A pharmacy has hundreds of different drugs to sell, but when a patient enters a pharmacy he will only go for the medicine prescribed to him. Trading Forex through technical indicators is very similar to this scenario: traders have “a lot” of technical indicators to trade with but only a few can be useful to them. In this article I will categories some technical indicators and try to cover some trading combinations which can be useful for traders who use a mix of indicators for trading. Following are the main categories of technical indicators. 1. Momentum Indicators The most common of all are momentum indicators. They tells us where the price is directed and how strong is the directional movement. However, they are also considered to be lagging indicators as the calculations behind these indicators are based on the recent history and continuation of trend after the indicator always have subjectivity. Moving averages, regression channels, classical divergences are a few momentum indicators. 2. Reversal Indicators The second are reversal indicators. They tells us of a reversal expectation after price has gone in a particular momentum. They are commonly based on the logic of over-b…
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Sintano avatar
Sintano 25 Jan.

Thank you indeed. Actually a big majority of traders have clear ideas of over bought/sold levels but selecting indicators is always a harder task. Will try to come up with a concrete system for the readers in the next month. :)

Likerty avatar
Likerty 25 Jan.

best momentum indicator is M1 TF:)))

Sintano avatar
Sintano 26 Jan.

indeed, when you have a trade opened and see a 5.0 pip movement in your direction after a long wait of static price ;)

alifari avatar
alifari 30 Jan.

nice read - well done

Sintano avatar
Sintano 30 Jan.

thanks. :)

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9/30
Ranking
Preferred Instrument - EURUSDPreferred Timeframe - 4H & aboveBacktest - NoStrategy owner - Loke4300 Risk reward ratio - 1:2; Disclaimer - As with all other systems out there, the success or failure of a technique depends more on trader and his discipline. Try this technique on DEMO account before you decide to implement this on REAL account. I wish to share one of my favorite methods of trading by using the CCI indicator. CCI indicator is best explained here. The system that i present here has NOT been taken from the internet or copied from someone; Is this the holy grail?Far from it. This is just another method of trading. The success or failure of which depends on YOU - the trader. Because YOU are a bundle of mixed emotions, conflicting thoughts and a confused state of mind while trading. If you could achieve DISCIPLINE, any system would work.So, the strategy in brief:Go LONG when CCI indicator has dipped twice below 100 level;Go SHORT when CCI indicator has spiked twice above 100 level;Further Addition 1:Go LONG when CCI indicator has dipped twice below 100 level; AND has turned up;Go SHORT when CCI indicator has spiked twice above 100 level; AND has turned down;Further Addition…
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loke4300 avatar
loke4300 20 Nov.

@Likerty : thank you for reading and commenting on my article. Sure, there's always something new to learn everyday and I am looking forward to reading your article and see if it helps us in our trading pursuit.

Thanks again.

fxigor avatar
fxigor 20 Nov.

I read that CCI indicator is used for commodities. What is your oppinion and statistics about CCI indicator asnd major forex pairs?

loke4300 avatar
loke4300 21 Nov.

@fxigor : thank you for reading my article. CCI - although the name has commodity in it, is not confined to commodities; it is widely used to trade almost all instruments - equities, commodities, forex.
CCI like others - is put in the category of oscillators; However, the method to use CCI profitably, as i put forward in my article above, makes it even better at having an edge in trading at almost all types of conditions [except news time];
wrt to your question about statistics: Iam in the process of gathering some back test result [i need a reliable software/site to do so].
thanks.

doctortyby avatar
doctortyby 25 Nov.

I personally use CCI indicator just for confirmation as it is a lagging indicator that shows past performance and does not have the same effect in the future development of the price. But i strongly belive it can be successfully used in Trends, trading in the direction of the trend (especially on pullbacks). Let me know when you test this strategy with more than 300 trades backtest to know extcly the average winn/loss ratio and the money management that you apply (reward/risk ratio, money risk ratio, profit factor, drawdown). Good luck

RobertPierce avatar

Great system........is there an indicator that will identify CCI double dip opportunities ?
Best Regards -
Bob Pierce

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18/35
Ranking
OVERVIEW OF THE EUR/USD MARKET After a sustained seven year uptrend, the EUR/USD market reached an all time high of 1.6038 in July 2008. Since then, the market has been in a long term consolidation for about four years. Within this range, EUR/USD has been alternating between bear and bull markets lasting from a few months to about one year. Figure 1 illustrates the long term behaviour of EUR/USD. Figure 1: EUR/USD monthly chart The pinkish curve on the above and other charts in this article; represents the 21 period simple moving average. The high point of the current EUR/USD bear market started on 4th May 2011 after the previous bull market topped at 1.4940. Following a mid-term consolidation between May and August, the market made a bearish breakout in September 2011 - which can now be recognized as the first wave of a classic Elliott’s wave formation. The various waves of this formation are illustrated on Figure 2 and labelled in black. Figure 2: Elliott’s waves in EUR/USD downtrend as seen on weekly chart It is apparent from the weekly chart above, that the market has completed the fifth major wave of the bear market and embarked on corrective wave A. Note the dive…
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alifari avatar
alifari 24 Sep.

Nice article with chart explanation

scramble avatar
scramble 24 Sep.

I think this analysis is complete since points out some important FACTS occuring in last few weeks and gives a good idea on what could happen in the near future. Well done.

pichou avatar
pichou 24 Sep.

o totally agree. in my august article i said the low for the year was 1.2042

captain avatar
captain 25 Sep.

yes pichou, that could very well be the low for the year

DaddyPapi avatar
DaddyPapi 27 Sep.

Interesting article...shows how people view same charts differently..I think that the main reason it didnt reach that 261.8% is because it hit the support of the monthly consolidation which I draw as a horizontal line at 1,2334..also, I see another bearish trend line starting at 1,4938 and the monthly consolidation resistance still keeping it bearish

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5/48
Ranking
Naked trading is trading based on price action
without indicators. On forex forums you will encounter senior traders who
successfully trade full-time using price action alone. They, like me, have probably
investigated hundreds of indicators in depth, spent thousands of hours
screen-time, invested hundreds of dollars on software and training and blown a
couple of small live accounts, before learning that all you need to be
consistently profitable, can be derived from price action alone. This series of
weekly articles will show you one way in which you too can trade naked
profitably.
 My top 10 basic principles are simple and effective
1.  Monitor
the mood of the market (economic/political fundamentals & stock market   indices)
2.   Keep
an eye on the calendar (for high impact news releases)
3.  Use
higher and lower timeframes (Fractal Theory of markets)
4.   Determine
the trend and momentum
5.   Find
support and resistance levels
6.    Enter
on a retracement
7.    Manually
trail your stop loss to successive higher lows (if long) or lower highs (if
short)
8.    Exit
at support or resistance or when your trailed stop loss is triggered
9.     Maintain
good money management
10.   Improv…
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NagarajaAdiga avatar

good one. but trading without any indicator is like driving with eyes closed. Last month with one sided market where eur and gbp lost 1000 pips each a lot of people gained great pips and those who were adjusted to volatility burnt portfolio. nice explanation though.

nsteve avatar
nsteve 7 June

Thank you for your comment, NagarajaAdiga! However, if you have poor sight you use glasses. Indicators are glasses that filter price. They are derived from price. Instead of focusing on the filters why not train yourself to understand what they mean and observe the underlying price action. In time you may learn to get the same information directly from price without the glasses. Then you will realize that before you were blind but now you see! By the way, last month I came 17th in the Trader Competition because I did ride the EUR and GBP Bear trend trading naked :-)

NagarajaAdiga avatar

nice comparison nsteve. i really liked it. i consider the last month movement in market as exception for showing one's capacity as there was no volatility and it was one way down. how would you cope this month?

scramble avatar
scramble 11 June

Price action rules are "a must" in trading! Well done also with the presentation in community TV. Wish you best of luck in contest and many green pips in your trading :-)

NathanMatchpoint avatar

Good clear explanation - I particularly liked the surfing with bikini. I too believe that all the information is in the price, it's about understanding the price, the dynamics and as you say the indictors and their impact.

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25/68
Ranking
Many
traders use technical indicators to support their entry and exit decisions.  But not all indicators are appropriate for
all situations. Some indicators, such as the stochastic oscillator, are best
applied in situations where recent price has moved in a range. Other tools,
such as MACD or OsMA, are more accurately used when recent price has moved in a
trend.   How, then, do we know which tool
to use? Let me show you have to use ADX as the tie breaker.
ADX, or
Average Directional Index, measures the strength of a move.  Since it takes a certain amount of strength
to break support or resistance levels  - which mark the boundaries of a defined range - we can use ADX to
provide us with an indication of how likely the upcoming support or resistance
level is to hold and, consequently, whether we should use an oscillator (range)
or a momentum indicator (trend) to give us further confirmation that our entry
or exit decision is a high odds play.
When you
add ADX to a chart, it will show you three lines:  The main line (ADX), which is the one that we
are most concerned with; the Plus Directional Indicator (+DI) and the Minus
Directional Indicator (-DI).  These last
two DI lines provide d…
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dwtrader avatar
dwtrader 19 Apr.

good stuff - i use adx all the time

jjens avatar
jjens 19 Apr.

good stuff mate

fxtom avatar
fxtom 22 Apr.

higher lows, lower highs.. the trend you get from the price chart. but alright, adx can help you dertermine current strength, i just dont think that any pros use it

TBFX avatar
TBFX 22 Apr.

@fxtom, you are right, the pros certainly don't use adx (those at tier 1 banks) because they have the holy grail in forex trading: the order book

belman avatar
belman 26 Apr.

Good luck to you, your article is very good.

orto leave comments
10/68
Ranking
There
are many different ways to define momentum. This article is dedicated to the
momentum candle. I will try to keep it as simple as possible.
Momo
= Momentum Candle.
Momo
simply defined, is a candle which is at least twice the size of the previous
candle. There are other elements to consider with momo but that is the basic criterion.Some
examples of momos can
be seen highlighted below:
The
green momo candles are the ones I would like to bring to your attention. You
will notice that the red candle preceding the first highlighted green momo is
also twice the size of its previous candle.
You will see why this would not be traded later.
It
is beneficial to compare momo to other momos in making trading decisions. Some
are clearly more powerful than others. The two green momo candles clearly had
more power than the red one.
Why is momo important?
The
momo candle shows a large movement in price beyond the previous candles range.
The greater the difference in size between the momo and the previous candle the
stronger the indication of where price is currently going. You will usually see
momo long before any (MA) Moving Average catches up with price. Sometimes MA’s
align with momo which …
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MomoTrader avatar

Hi Adrian. No I haven't used volume analysis before. I normally used momo candles for entries away from supply and demand levels. I find this works pretty well.

MrSami avatar
MrSami 4 Apr.

Thanks...

MomoTrader avatar

Hi MrSami I hope you found it useful

belman avatar
belman 15 Apr.

good luck+1

kkforex avatar
kkforex 19 Apr.

Good luck to you 1+

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5/65
Ranking
  Momentum is defined as a force that keeps an object moving.  In the world of Forex, we are using momentum indicators (stochastic, RSI e.g.) that measure this force by calculating the close of price bar in a selected period, allowing us know the rate of price change. The majority of traders utilize a cluster of momentum indicators, although many of them do not fully comprehend the distinct differences between momentum and price trend.  Moreover, many traders have established a wrong logical assumption:  a momentum reversal results in price trend reversal.  Thus, I would like to define momentum in trade and how to utilize it to establish a trade set-up. Price trend is the actual direction of movement in a currency; it can be either bullish or bearish. Momentum gives the alteration in the demand and reflects the necessary time to reach the certain price level- i.e. the rate of price change. These definitions can be used as a logical inference. Price and momentum may not always in the same direction. Therefore, momentum reversal does not always co-occur with a price reversal.  Otherwise, I would have islands that named attributed to momentum indicators. The movement of price and…
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gorozcoh avatar
gorozcoh 23 Nov.

Good luck. visit me http://www.dukascopy.com/strategycontest/?action=blog&trader=gorozcoh

gorozcoh avatar
gorozcoh 25 Nov.

Good luck. Visit me at blog http://www.dukascopy.com/strategycontest/?action=blog&trader=gorozcoh

krishere avatar
krishere 13 Dec.

A very nice article but could have been putup even more nicely...

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12/108
Ranking
Many traders prefer to use a filter when momentum trading. But much of this is done under the incorrect notion that "the more complicated my system is, the more successful I will be at trading." This is far from the truth. I reiterate the principle of KISS: Keep It a Simple System.For example, traders using a MACD signal line crossover, or a MACD zero line / EMA crossover will frequently use an Average Directional Index indicator as a filter, in order to determine if a the strength of the trend is strong enough to enter in. Typically an ADX > 25 is the parameter used. While this may increase the win/loss ratio of your trades over time, it will not necessarily increase your profits.The X-factor that makes these filters actually less profitable is the strong opportunity cost that they impose on what is already a fully functional and profitable system. Let’s look at the most recent example of this, on EUR/USD on a 1h timeframe. Our buy signal is a MACD zero line crossover, which is equivalent to a 12-period EMA and 26-period EMA crossover. Normally, we would have entered into a trade at 0:00 GMT on Sept 30 for a price of 1.3585. The current price is 1.3246, which on 50:1 leverage is a…
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danielgates avatar

Would be useful to maybe use a filter only as a discretionary indicator? Also, how does this compare to other majors other than EUR/USD?

amerfx86 avatar
amerfx86 8 Oct.

one more good fx technical article

ritesh avatar
ritesh 12 Oct.

Nicely written, quite detailed and informative article. Nice one..keep more coming. Best of luck and +1

Milani avatar
Milani 26 Oct.

Good article

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