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How did I come to conclusion that avoiding pairs with USD might be a good idea for some time?

Although I agree that US election definitely was a great, tradeable opportunity (though not an easy one), right now I see no certain direction that FX majors will go this month. After the election things went out totally out of control. We had several situation when USD moved opaque to data reads due to new President's decisions causing major upset and mayhem across the markets. Probably some will say it is their kind of environment to trade on - volatile, sometimes rapid. Yet everyone has to agree that we have a high risk of unscheduled and unpredictable events moving USD now in a rather unknown direction.
Sometimes it is better to play safe instead of lose looking for enormous moves, in other words, better safe than sorry. The conclusion to avoid USD pairs for some time comes logical as we should base our trades on past, meaning technical analysis or on extrapolation of past data, meaning fundametal analysis and both do not work as it should now. It is also difficult to base trades on Mr Trump since he uses to tell contradictory things.

Is there anywhere to run?

Yes, the…
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ak10 avatar
ak10 8 Feb

Rightly explained. Very useful.

antoniogreenblue avatar

Good explained. Related do GBP I like and trade the GBP/JPY ;)

Beto avatar
Beto 12 Feb

It seems to be nice work with cross pairs for now, good share of information and research.

FXRabbit avatar
FXRabbit 23 Feb

Well written!

al_dcdemo avatar

Great job!

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Here we go again with new “insane” levels against the dollar across the board and taper is right behind the corner to give us a trade of the lifetime. Or is it? While many planning their big long dollar of the lifetime, market movers already in their big short of their own record.
Let’s take a look to what happened trough out the year. The first wave of taper expectations started to gather momentum in June, but with unexpected Bernanke’s assurance “for foreseeable future” EUR/USD printed a record 400 pip daily candle and kept going until September. Then again – just a bit of profit taking and all the fuss in the financial media about not “if”, but “how much” taper will be announced. That day Gold had some buying right in to the moment of announcement – very suspicious developments if you believe that all market participants got “the news” at the same time.
And now – again… Couple of marginally better numbers and speculations began. Let’s face it – employment data is nowhere close to pre 2008 levels and recent two NFP prints is just a non-event, compared to constant 300-400k add-ups in older days.. But, is employment or any other macro data have any importance for the FED at all whe…
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Likerty avatar
Likerty 16 Dic

As I pointed in the article - all the positioning is already done, as market movers probably started the proces way before.. So far looks, like markets preparing for another dollar weakness wave..

Daytrader21 avatar

Nice buddy, it seems this month many a lot of us decided to write about the Fed taper decision:). I always enjoy reading different points of view.

Daytrader21 avatar

But lets not forget I was the first one who wrote about it:))

Mani avatar
Mani 19 Dic

very good work +1

Likerty avatar
Likerty 29 Dic

Not much of a knee-jerk reaction, but main theme is still on the table - stocks, euro and cable - proceeding further up (Gold and Aussie will join later) and should continue untill technical targets gets reached..

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The Euro and the ECB Although not apparent at this stage of the global economic crisis, nobody surprised that the monetary authorities of the major currencies are now all for making tremendous efforts to depreciate their currencies. Implementing right and left its monetary policies, setting meager interest rates and well weighted here and there, massing the asset purchase programs (such as "quantitative easing") in the United States and in Japan etc.. They say that soon the green shoots come for all economies, and meanwhile printed and printed paper with no real monetary value .. Broadly speaking, we know that with all these tricks and they only seek whippersnappers keep their exchange rates to boost exports reduced to necessarily make them more competitive against the periphery countries and the third world who are always the big losers. Now regarding the Eurozone, we know The ECB not has among its institutional mandates direct or indirect intervention in the currency markets. It is known to us who follow daily the exchange rates in forex whenever you publish or magnify certain information on the economic status of the Eurozone (or leaves Draghi to chatter) which usually have …
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IGUMZFX avatar

Fundamental is good to trade if you have sources to the figure and broadcast, Nice article

AdamFx42 avatar
AdamFx42 10 Ago

Well done, sir +1

amerfx86 avatar
amerfx86 31 Ago

nice article +1

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Nearly all Major Financial institutions around the world issue 1 Month, 3 Month, 6 Month, 1 Year Forecasts so on and so on. They issue these for nearly every asset class from US 10 years - S&P500 - EURUSD etc.But seeing as this is primarily filled with Forex Traders I thought I would share with you the forecasts for the major FX pairs so I will start by showing you the Forecast Curves Mean for all the main contributors from around the world from banks like; UBS, Deutsche bank, Goldman Sachs, Barclays for example.EURUSDWe'll start off with the EURUSD Forecasts, the Green Dashed line shows the mean forecast for the different lengths of time, with the two Purple lines showing the Min/Max forecasts from all the contributors. We can see that the majority of analysts believe the EUR will depreciate vs. the USD 1 Month Mean - 1.3090 / 1 Month High - 1.3450 / 1 Month Low - 1.273 Month Mean - 1.2930 / 3 Month High - 1.3780 / 3 Month Low - 1.226 Month Mean - 1.2790 / 6 Month High - 1.3700 / 6 Month Low - 1.1612 Month Mean - 1.2690 / 12 Month High - 1.3700 / 12 Month Low - 1.12This Shows the historical rolling 1 month mean rate vs. the EURUSD spot rate with the Spread shown in the lower tab. …
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scramble avatar
scramble 29 Ene

very interesting about AUD USD! overall another great article! :)

bmg avatar
bmg 30 Ene

nice article

belman avatar
belman 31 Ene

Good article +1

doctortyby avatar

If you were the head of a major bank, would you give for free your forecasts for the retail traders to profit from? Or would you try to mess up with their heads by offering mixed forecasts? :)

AdrianWS avatar

While you wouldn't expect them to give anythintg useful for free (or anyone for that matter) they publish these as a way to attract clients (or more precisely their money). So it is in their interest to get some right, especially when with the Nomura example when they 15mio exposure.

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   Greetings dear traders in the Dukascopy Community. This week we will watch the Key Levels on the 4 Hours charts for the Major Pairs: Eur/Usd (Fiber), Gbp/Usd (Cable), Usd/Chf (Swiss Franc), Usd/Jpy (Yen). After we will identify the main Key Levels that we have to watch for the Price Action Movement, we will be able to compose the bullish, bearish and mixed scenarios charts.   First of all You have to read the article that explains the Key Levels that I use in my Technical Analysis, to better understand the probabilities scenarios formation.   The main  instruments that we use for our analysis are : Monthly Pivots (Main, S1, S2, S3 and R1, R2, R3),Weekly Pivots (Main, S1, S2, S3 and R1, R2, R3),Simple Moving Averages - SMA - 30, 50, 100 and 200,Fibonacci Retracements,Supports and Resistences,Trendlines and Channel Trendlines (During the Trends and Sideways Movement).   I strongly believe that a technical analyst cannot predict the future Price Movement with high accuracy based only on the Hystorical price movement. That is why I propose multiple scenarios in my Analysis, Bullish scenarios, Bearish scenarios and Mixed Probabilities (when the Key Levels fail). All these probability…
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Nicco avatar
Nicco 10 May

Interesting and easy to use for me as an amateur! +1

OneGoodTrade avatar

It was good to see you on the Dukascopy Broadcast a few days ago. :)

doctortyby avatar

@RobertBric: It's nothing funny about a Key-Level that is broken and confirmed and then with no signal from the volume analysis or candlestick formations, turn around against your position with a high momentum on low volume. This could be an argument against my hypothesis. :)

Dieselfx avatar
Dieselfx 20 May

the charts are a bit cluttered, he wants to say

Schaolin avatar
Schaolin 23 May

very interesting your articles , success this month +1

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This article will look at the major fundamental figures of the top Countries involved in trading of the major currency pairs (or those that include the USD):-EURUSD-GBPUSD-USDCHF-USDCAD-AUDUSD-NZDUSD-USDJPYUnited States of America:Currency : United States Dollar (USD)GDP : 14.58 Trillion USDGDP Y/Y : 1.60%GDP/Capita : $48,147 USDInterest Rate set By Federal Reserve : 0.25%Inflation Rate : 2.90%Unemployment rate : 8.30%Government Budget surplus/deficit : -10.30Debt to GDP ratio : 100.5%Eurozone:Currency : Euro (EUR)GDP : 12.45 Trillion USDGDP Y/Y : 0.70%GDP/Capita : $35,887 USDInterest rate set by ECB : 1.00%Inflation rate : 2.70%Unemployment rate : 10.40%Governement Surplus/deficit : -6.20Debt to GDP ratio : 85.10 ( However some countries like Greece has 125% while Germany 83%)United Kingdom:Currency : Pound Sterling (GBP)GDP : 2.24 Trillion USDGDP Y/Y : 0.80%GDP/Capita : $39,604 USDInterest Rate set By Bank Of England : 0.50%Inflation Rate : 3.60%Unemployment rate : 8.40%Government Budget surplus/deficit : -10.30Debt to GDP ratio : 80.00%Switzerland:Currency : Swiss Franc (CHF)GDP : 0.52 Trillion USDGDP Y/Y : 1.30%GDP/Capita : $84,983 USDInterest Rate set By Swiss Central Bank : 0…
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masterfxtrader avatar

Nice stuff. Japan's debt seems quite a lot surprised how it got that big.

FX_Swingtrader avatar

Yeah I agree with doctor. Next week do a fundamental analysis overview for the next week. Thanks. Either way good article, with useful info.

AdrianWS avatar
AdrianWS 24 Feb

Hey, thanks for the support, If every one wants it I will do some of the scheduled announcements and analysis on them. thanks again.

Stefanos avatar
Stefanos 25 Feb

Check out FSKLIRIS article. He te best.

AdrianWS avatar
AdrianWS 25 Feb

please don't spam my articles with this.

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