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Before the RBA Rate Statement

The Friday before the RBA was a tough day for fundamental analyst traders who solely based their trading on the NFP report that came in at 151K, 21K below expectation. The AUD/USD was only bullish in the first five minutes and then turned around to the downside to the 0.74500 psychological support level maintained earlier in the European Session.
Chart 1: AUD/USD 5MIN
Some of the explanations of the behavior of the USD included;
  • The huge impact from the Jackson Hole Symposium that provided a huge boost to the dollar
  • The new home sales and durable goods report that beat their expectation also provided a boost to the USD though to a less extent
  • Finally, Janet Yellen’s expectations of the rate hike based on the speech delivered Jackson Hole were her conclusion about the US economy was
    the case for an increase in the federal funds rate has strengthened in recent months.

In Australia, we saw the AUD show strength against the USD with the start Asian session on Tuesday ahead of the RBA. All traders seemed confident that the rate would be maintained since it had been cut by RBA in the month earlier. Furthermore, the reports of the private capital expenditure…
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FXRabbit avatar
FXRabbit 15 Sep.

Good article!

GUANYINDIZI avatar

i can't see the charts ...??

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6/47
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US retail sales climbed 0.5% in May surpassing 0.3% forecasted by analysts. The Commerce Department said that retail sales gauged 2.5% compared with the same period a year ago.
Dukascopy Research Products [1] revived that:
US Federal Reserve was forced to keep the target range for the Federal Funds rate flat at 0.25-0.50% after its June
14-15 meeting (...) Domestic data has been uneven recently, with mild payrolls report considered to be the key
trigger for accepting the status-quo.

On the short-term basis, several overseas risks are still weighing on Fed’s decision to hold rates steady. Britain's vote to leave the EU, China’s lack of demand and miscalculated debt levels, Brazil’s political crisis and Japanese bond yields deepening further into negative territory.
The effect of a Fed interest rate hike could dampen the economic outlook, posing serious risks for equity markets.
Ray Dalio interviewed by Bloomberg Reporter Erik Schatzker [2] earlier this year said that the Fed’s next big move:
This point of view seemed me unappropriated at the time, however at the current standings, I give up my own bets on Fed’s rate hikes and curb myself to Mr. Dalio’s point [/2][/1]…
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BhimSha56166409 avatar

Great and Intresting

tangell avatar
tangell 28 July

good job

Sveetlana avatar
Sveetlana 29 July

useful informations

voldemar avatar
voldemar 29 July

nice article

FXRabbit avatar
FXRabbit 26 Aug.

Very interesting article!

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