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In this article USDCHF will be analyzed both fundamentally and technically and as known nothing is impossible in Forex so different scenarios will be drawn to express about the most probable scenarios with the USDCHF.
What is affected the move of USDCHF nowadays:
Fundamental analysis:
USDCHF is affected now by two different policies by both The Swiss National Bank (SNB) and United States Federal Reserve (FED) and also affected strongly by The Swiss National Bank (SNB) intervention in Forex market which strongly hit CHF, finally CHF and other currencies is affected due to strong growth in US in the last months which make US$ to be favored.
  • Different policies by SNB and FED:

SNB intervened in Forex market several times, every time, it said that it will intervene if necessary to avoid any strong gains for CHF against currencies especially against EUR.
In different, US FED has just raised interest rate for the first time from ten years, FED delayed its first rate hike more than once in order to prevent broad US$ gains which may dampen US growth, this time rate hike is very near but if something horrible hit markets again, more rate hike may be delayed more.
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alias1980 avatar

khalidamassi you can work the analyst )

isomere avatar
isomere 10 Mar.

useful analysis, thank you.

Nihad avatar
Nihad 11 Mar.

Nice analysis Khaled, FED and SNB are apparently on policy divergence, but the actual state of the US economy will force the FED to policy converge not only with the SNB, but mainly with the ECB, BOJ and PBoC. Therefore, my humble opinion is that testing the 1030 is unlikely. However, it was nice reading your fundamental analysis for this pair. Good luck Bro

khalidamassi avatar

Thanks Nihad, I am very proud of your opinion, analysis for the near time, often changes takes much time to happen, may FED follow ECB and BOJ but when ???

WallStreet6 avatar


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I find it useful to look at the big picture from time to time. In technical analysis terms, that usually means inspection of weekly and/or monthly charts. However, I rarely get to see analysis of "ultra-high" timeframe charts, so I decided to make a couple of attempts of my own. Previously, I analysed long term charts of the Euro and the Yen.
Today I'll have a look at yearly and quarterly Cable charts, covering the period from 1971 to 2015. While the yearly may be good for a quick overview of the price action, the quarterly chart offers more detail and makes trends, ranges and patterns more easily observable. I will be focusing on the latter for my analysis.
Yearly Chart
Quarterly Chart
The Character of the Pair
The thing that I find the most fascinating on this long term chart is that it pretty much captures the character of the pair that is known to me from trading it on lower timeframes. Long lasting trends with deep retracements; sharp rallies and sell-offs; extended ranges; and plenty of fake breakouts. Were time and price scales removed, I might not have been able to tell that it's not a daily (D1), not an intraday (H1) and not a London session price action (M5)…
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al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 31 Oct.

Kivetat I'm of the same opinion!

foreignexchange avatar

great article

KATRIN_90 avatar

ты молодец! хорошая статья)

VictoriaVika avatar

al_dcdemo , its insightful - very well done! A brilliant article. Inspiring! Many useful information, informative and helpful, also there are some useful tools introduced, thanks, Vika.

orto leave comments
Preface :

In my last 3 articles, I finished last one talking about central banks decisions especially about interest rate decisions which is the most important and influential data affecting currencies, most interest rate decisions are in specific time which is known from long time, so you can take your care before making any trade from time near to time of release, in this article, talking will be about direct intervention from central banks which often surprises the markets and traders and may be brokers also.
Talking about Central Banks intervention always make us remember Swiss intervention last January, especially at 15/01/2015 when Central Swiss bank removed the 1.2000 cap of EUR/CHF, such data made one of the strongest historical movement, as example USD/CHF fell sharply towards 0.7500 from 1.0200, which means 2700 pips down, it means that the pair lost more than 25% of its values in one day, it was horrible day not only for traders, investors but also for banks, brokers and market makers.
What happened in 15/01/2015:

Swiss bank removed 1.2000 cap, data release was so surprise and hit the markets strongly, USD/CHF down 2700 pip, GBP/CHF down 4200 pips, E…
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Agnessa26 avatar

Good job

MrLOSS avatar
MrLOSS 7 Aug.

It's a pity in Dukasсopy binary options are limited to 1 hour.

orto leave comments
I personally started trading EURCHF pair after Swiss National Bank intervention on September, 6 2011. At that time I was new forex trader and for me it was epic move. The exchange rate of EURCHF skyrocketed from 1.1018 to 1.2187 in just 3 hours, which is 1169 pips move as you can see on figure 1. Many traders lost or made really lot money thanks to this event.
Figure 1. EUR/CHF Hourly chart. Swiss National Bank Intervention in 2011

Yesterday it was just three years from SNB annoucing 1.2000 floor and market wasn´t able to break this floor as you can see on figure 2. The main question for me right now is, will SNB protect 1.2000 level this time? Will be or will be not market able to break this level in medium term perspective? What are the risks in current market situation?
Figure 2. EUR/CHF Weekly chart. Situation after SNB intervention.

Technical analysis of EUR/CHF pair
Current market exchange rate is 1.2063. The most important level to watch is 1.2000, which should be protected by Swiss National Bank, many retail traders and big players, so the best level, where to put stop loss to protect capital is under level 1.2000. For my trading style is ideal level 1.1970, which is 30 …
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Airmike avatar
Airmike 10 Sep.

I vote for EURCHF long. :)

Daytrader21 avatar

Well, just after I've posted my comment yesterday SNB spokesman Meier give an interview to WSJ saying SNB is open for negative rate, which is an old news as every time EUR/CHF come near the PEG they pull out of a hat this rhetoric:)). I hope you took some profits as it will come back again:))

PTtrader avatar
PTtrader 11 Sep.

My target is 1.2250 for first medium term position :) I dont think that they will apply it in medium term, they thought about it even two years ago.

peachynicnic avatar

nice, thanks

VictoriaVika avatar

Thanks for your article, there is many useful information, really good strategy and detail explanation. Victoria

orto leave comments

I might not be George Soros, who was able to anticipate huge
instantaneous market movements with sniper accuracy, but I certainly have had
my own share of predicting and catching significant pip movements in the
foreign exchange market. As we all know, Intervention by central banks is a
major market mover which can cause huge instantaneous price changes in currency
trading.  Last year, I was oblivious of
this fundamental, and I lost a huge chunk of money during the Bank of Japan
Intervention. This negative motivation spurred me into looking for a way of
figuring out and anticipating interventions with sniper accuracy. My last
prediction was the last intervention by the Bank of Japan, but unfortunately, I
missed it by a couple of hours( I didn’t want to keep my position open over the
weekend, and they took me unawares by intervening a couple of hours after
market open while I was still sleeping). I am about to make another prediction,
but this time, it is the next SNB intervention which is fast approaching. If
you want to know when it will happen, just keep reading!
KNOW: well, they are no more secrets because I am about to unveil them to
you. It takes a lot of m…
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skytrader avatar
skytrader 14 Dec.

+1, the last SNB action killed my contest account a few weeks ago! that was not nice at all.. i was fully loaded, but on the wrong FRANC side.. haha, that was fun... the fastest test account blowing ever.. nice article prophet!

emmax avatar
emmax 14 Dec.

Great! this is excellent man! keep it up.

skytrader avatar
skytrader 15 Dec.

seems like there wa sno intervention today... i mena how high do they think they can push the euro agains CHF artificially???

MyiDEA avatar
MyiDEA 18 Dec.

Article contest good for learning...good wishes for this competition...

ritesh avatar
ritesh 22 Dec.

Wishing you a very happy and prosperous New Year. +1

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This, in my view, an interesting question, so I decided to dedicate this issue the article. For a start, who do not know what the currency central bank intervention, then I'll tell a little about this:         Currency intervention of the Central Bank - is central bank intervention in the market to stabilize the national currency by buying or selling.    In order to lower the national currency the central bank has resorted to selling some of the stocks in the national currency for foreign currency or gold, in order to improve the course, the central bank buys the national currency for foreign currency or gold.         Currency intervention of the Central Bank is of three kinds: 1. Explicit 2. Hidden 3. Verbal.         Verbal intervention - is a psychological impact on market participants of the bodies involved in monetary policy.         Hidden intervention - when the bank simply keeps the level of the national currency at any particular level that he needs. This intervention is difficult to determine. Exchange rate is approximately 30 to 100 points.         Explicit intervention - is the active implementation of the Central Bank in the market, buying or dumping of large amounts of…
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LinnuxFX avatar
LinnuxFX 6 Oct.

God job with your article, good luck...

amerfx86 avatar
amerfx86 8 Oct.

only me and you have fundamental analysis article...that means +1 for you... and write more on the article its my recommendation

ritesh avatar
ritesh 12 Oct.

Nicely written, quite detailed and informative article. Nice on bro, keep more coming. Best of luck and +1

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