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Definition and Economic forecasting

  • Fundamental analysis can be defined as the study of country’s economic and financial performance in order to determine the fair market value and future direction of its currency.
  • Fundamentals focus on factors that determine exchange rates, such as countries’ economic health, political stability and environmental events.
  • A popular way to gauge the health of countries’ economy is through looking at its economic indicators and data releases, which is why every trader should be familiar with them and how they influence the value of a currency.
  • If the European economy is doing better/worse than American economy then we expect EURUSD price to go up/down.
  • Our target is to evaluate how well the economies in question are doing, and find which currency will appreciate/depreciate.
Macroeconomic Indicators
  • Interest Rates
  • Inflation
  • Gross Domestic Product – GDP
  • Unemployment
  • Trade Balance

Pic 1 - Major Indicators which can move the currency pairs

Interest Rates

[list][/list]…
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Anetta_Kliueva avatar
Anetta_Kliueva 25 Авг.

Oh great artice!! Thanks=)))

_shokolad_ avatar
_shokolad_ 25 Авг.

Good job!))

krabik avatar
krabik 15 Сент.

Good

LoockasFX avatar
LoockasFX 19 Сент.

интересно!!!

klintons avatar
klintons 9 Март

Gute Artikel

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7/57
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Before the RBNZ
The NZD started off the week strong against the USD despite the NFP jobs report that came in with over 70K above the expected. All eyes were on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) and more importantly the Top Boss Graeme Wheeler as to whether the RBNZ would maintain its rates or follow the BOE, RBA, and BOJ which had adjusted their interest rates in the week earlier.
All traders were expecting a rate cut due to;
  • The decrease in the oil prices that weren’t enough to push the inflation higher as expected by the RBNZ estimates in June.
  • The expectations of the FED rate hike didn’t drag NZD/USD lower but rather strengthened it.
  • The RBNZ also tightened its mortgage lending restrictions as a possible indication of rate cut.

Furthermore RBNZ Chieftain Wheeler said in the June RBNZ statement that:
At this stage it seems likely that further policy easing will be required to ensure that future inflation settles near the middle of the target range

After the RBNZ
The RBNZ cut its cash rate by 0.25% to a record low 2.0%.
CHART 1- The RBNZ interest rate since April 1st 2015 to July 1st 2016
Contrary to what experts thought, the NZD/USD shoot up by over 130pips within 30minut…
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fx211pips avatar
fx211pips 8 Сент.

superb article

geoma avatar
geoma 16 Сент.

Very interesting, keep up the good work.

Brezhnyulia avatar
Brezhnyulia 17 Сент.

you are really great  in it

paglu avatar
paglu 4 Окт.

nice article

DONCEVCLARK avatar
DONCEVCLARK 25 Нояб.

great!

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Introduction
In this article NZDUSD will be analyzed both fundamentally and technically and as known nothing is impossible in Forex so different scenarios will be drawn to express about the most probable scenarios with the NZDUSD.
What is affected the move of NZDUSD nowadays:

Fundamental analysis:
NZDUSD is affected now by two different policies by both Reserve bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) and United States Federal Reserve (FED) and also affected strongly by commodity prices especially diary milk which strongly hit Kiwi in the last year, finally Kiwi and other currencies is affected due to strong growth in US in the last months which make US$ to be favored.
[list][/list]…
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WallStreet6 avatar
WallStreet6 24 Март

Interesting

fx211pips avatar
fx211pips 24 Март

good analysis of the kiwi

Olkiss70 avatar
Olkiss70 31 Март

useful information!

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Introduction
In this article AUDUSD will be analyzed both fundamentally and technically and as known nothing is impossible in Forex so different scenarios will be drawn to express about the most probable scenarios with the AUDUSD.
What is affected the move of AUDUSD nowadays:
Fundamental analysis:
AUDUSD is affected now by two different policies by both Reserve bank of Australia (RBA) and United States Federal Reserve (FED) and also affected strongly by commodity prices which strongly hit Aussie in the last year, finally Aussie and other currencies is affected due to strong growth in US in the last months which make US$ to be favored.
[list][/list]…
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WallStreet6 avatar
WallStreet6 24 Март

Interesting

VALTRAD avatar
VALTRAD 24 Март

Первый сценарий тоже считаю наиболее вероятным.

khalidamassi avatar
khalidamassi 25 Март

Thanks everyone for support

khalidamassi avatar
khalidamassi 25 Март

Scenario 1 still preferred for me as 0.7400 holds.

Natalia_Kisenko avatar
Natalia_Kisenko 31 Март

very good article!

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Introduction
In this article USDCHF will be analyzed both fundamentally and technically and as known nothing is impossible in Forex so different scenarios will be drawn to express about the most probable scenarios with the USDCHF.
What is affected the move of USDCHF nowadays:
Fundamental analysis:
USDCHF is affected now by two different policies by both The Swiss National Bank (SNB) and United States Federal Reserve (FED) and also affected strongly by The Swiss National Bank (SNB) intervention in Forex market which strongly hit CHF, finally CHF and other currencies is affected due to strong growth in US in the last months which make US$ to be favored.
  • Different policies by SNB and FED:

SNB intervened in Forex market several times, every time, it said that it will intervene if necessary to avoid any strong gains for CHF against currencies especially against EUR.
In different, US FED has just raised interest rate for the first time from ten years, FED delayed its first rate hike more than once in order to prevent broad US$ gains which may dampen US growth, this time rate hike is very near but if something horrible hit markets again, more rate hike may be delayed more.
[list]…
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alias1980 avatar
alias1980 8 Март

khalidamassi you can work the analyst )

isomere avatar
isomere 10 Март

useful analysis, thank you.

Nihad avatar
Nihad 11 Март

Nice analysis Khaled, FED and SNB are apparently on policy divergence, but the actual state of the US economy will force the FED to policy converge not only with the SNB, but mainly with the ECB, BOJ and PBoC. Therefore, my humble opinion is that testing the 1030 is unlikely. However, it was nice reading your fundamental analysis for this pair. Good luck Bro

khalidamassi avatar
khalidamassi 14 Март

Thanks Nihad, I am very proud of your opinion, analysis for the near time, often changes takes much time to happen, may FED follow ECB and BOJ but when ???

WallStreet6 avatar
WallStreet6 24 Март

Interesting

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What is Negative Interest Rate Policy?:

A negative interest rate policy is an unconventional monetary policy tool employed by Central Banks where the nominal interest rate is below zero hence the term negative. It is unconventional because instead of the depositors earning money for their deposits in Banks, the depositors are charged for their deposits in the banks. Negative interest rate do not directly impact small investors but can indirectly have effect from the spillover of banks having deposits at other big banks/central banks.
Why Negative Interest Rate Policy?

The policy of negative interest rate is employed when the central bank observes in its economy of the following :
  1. Low or no growth
  2. Deflation
  3. Hoard of money by people and business
Central Bank’s policy aim is to make people and businesses to spend and invest money instead of keeping money at the bank and to stop prices from falling, increase real production and output, and decrease of unemployment. Such loose and expansionary monetary policy is employed usually to deal with such stagnation in the economy.
When a Central Bank has set a negative interest rate, it means depositor will be charged for keeping their mone…
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zarina avatar
zarina 27 Февр.

You are waiting for the fall of the Euro ?

Nihad avatar
Nihad 27 Февр.

Good luck buddy

wisdom_consultant avatar
wisdom_consultant 28 Февр.

nice article

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Introduction
In this article EURUSD will be analyzed both fundamentally and technically and as known nothing is impossible in Forex so different scenarios will be drawn to express about the most probable scenarios with the EURUSD.
What is affected the move of EUR/USD nowadays:
Fundamental analysis:
EURUSD is affected now by two different policies by both European Center Bank (ECB) and United States Federal Reserve (FED) and also affected strongly by ECB quantitative easing which strongly hit Euro, finally Euro and other currencies is affected due to strong growth in US in the last months which make US$ to be favored.
[list][/list]…
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wisdom_consultant avatar
wisdom_consultant 23 Февр.

nice article

zarina avatar
zarina 27 Февр.

I read your article! worked hard !

Nihad avatar
Nihad 27 Февр.

بالتوفيق اخى الكريم

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Introduction:
Interest Rate is among the most important fundamental data that impacts the currency of a country. It's of vital importance for any trader to keep a watch on this important data for his or her trading activities. A change in Interest Rate viz. a hike or a cut could be a percursor to a long term bearish or bullish bias respectively on the currency.
Interest Rate is the also most important tool major Central Banks around the world like FED, ECB, BOJ, PBOC etc use to guide the economy and the overall markets to its desired goals. Interest Rates are set by Central Banks to majorly keep inflation within a limit and to promote or curb lending. For instance, if prices for essential items and inflation are ballooning in conjunction with better economic conditions, Central Banks will hike Interest Rate to curb money supply to control price rise and inflation.
How Rates are calculated? :
Board of Directors of Central Banks controls the monetary policy of its country. They set the short-term interests at which banks can borrow from one another. Central Banks gather various relevant economic indicators from its economy to decide on Interest Rates to keep as its is or to cut o…
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Natalia_Kisenko avatar
Natalia_Kisenko 17 Февр.

good job!

Jenny26 avatar
Jenny26 18 Февр.

nice article))

zarina avatar
zarina 19 Февр.

done a good article!

Olkiss70 avatar
Olkiss70 21 Февр.

useful work!

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3/76
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Предисловие
В последнее время стало модным писать о конкурсе фундаментального анализа, поэтому хочу вставить свои «5 копеек». Многие участники сообщества периодически высказывают предположение, что временной промежуток в 10 минут слишком мал, чтобы в полной мере повлиять на движение соответствующей валютной пары.
В этой статье приведены результаты небольшого исследования, призванного выяснить - так ли это на самом деле?
Особенности подбора данных для исследования
Вначале из экономического календаря были взяты наиболее значимые события за 2016 г.
Затем изъяты следующие типы новостей:
  • Новости, эффект которых нельзя измерить математически или не дающие мгновенного влияния на валютные пары (выступления глав центробанков, финансовых чиновников, протоколы заседаний комиссий по денежно-кредитной политике и т.п.);
  • События, актуальные значения которых совпали с прогнозами аналитиков (в основном, процентные ставки, ВВП, различные индексы инфляции);
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Nihad avatar
Nihad 29 Февр.

@Olkiss The whole idea is just like the PMI can tell us, that the future for GBPNZD is up, so can your analysis

Nihad avatar
Nihad 29 Февр.

Olkiss70  I hope you get my idea, but please take this idea of yours one step higher, to a LEADING DIRECTION indicator, where news only reveal the intentions of the big market players.

Olkiss70 avatar
Olkiss70 29 Февр.

thank you, Nihad... my english is not good enough to understand everything you wrote ))  I will read it again later

Nihad avatar
Nihad 29 Февр.

Olkiss70 I just thought these comments would help for now :), tomorrow is another day :) WINK, good luck buddy

Olkiss70 avatar
Olkiss70 29 Февр.

thank you, Nihad :)

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Introduction
In this article, GBP/USD will be analyzed both fundamentally and technically and as known nothing is impossible in Forex, so different scenarios will be drawn to express about the most probable scenarios with the GBP /USD.
What is affected the move of GBP/USD nowadays:
Fundamental Analysis:
GBP/USD is affected now by two different policies by both Bank of England (BOE) and United States Federal Reserve (FED) and also affected sometimes by UK internal issues like last Scotland independence and UK exit from European Union (EU), finally pound and other currencies is affected due to strong growth in US in the last months which make US$ to be favored.
[list][/list]…
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Natalia_Kisenko avatar
Natalia_Kisenko 15 Февр.

good analysis!

Kbelestro avatar
Kbelestro 16 Февр.

Отлично!

Olkiss70 avatar
Olkiss70 21 Февр.

useful information!

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Introduction
In this article USDJPY will be analyzed both fundamentally and technically and as known nothing is impossible in Forex so different scenarios will be drawn to express about the most probable scenarios with the USDJPY.
What is affected the move of USD/JPY nowadays:
Fundamental analysis
USD/JPY is affected now by two different policies by both Bank of Japan (BOJ) and United States Federal Reserve (FED) and also affected strongly by BOJ quantitative easing which strongly hit Japanese Yen, finally Yen and other currencies is affected due to strong growth in US in the last months which make US$ to be favored.
[list][/list]…
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Natalia_Kisenko avatar
Natalia_Kisenko 10 Февр.

weel done! it seems now is scenario #3

khalidamassi avatar
khalidamassi 10 Февр.

Yeah, natallia we r now exactly in scenario #3 with big target ....

zarina avatar
zarina 12 Февр.

I wish you, the option that is waiting!

FX90 avatar
FX90 19 Февр.

good article

Olkiss70 avatar
Olkiss70 21 Февр.

great article!  good luck!

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Simplest idea ever
One of the simplest ideas in investing is buy and hold strategy. This type of strategy is most frequent type of investing because most of the mutual funds are offering their products and services without any active management. Underlying assets are commonly stocks and bonds. In this article I would like to show you an alternative, how to use and adapt this strategy in currency market.
Safe o risky
Well, this is the dilemma. If we assume that all assets have different risk and all strategies have different risk profiles, there is always chance to make wrong decision. We cannot say that buy and hold is always risky strategy and we definitely cannot say that is safe as well. All these things depend on multiple factors as fair value of the asset, interest rate or yield, actual price, market condition and many others.
Why should I invest to the particular currencies?
I don’t know if there is any better and flexible market as a cash market. I don’t believe in never-ending bullish stock market. I believe in very serious and conservative way of investing. The way how to to create a fixed income. I don’t want to say that only forex is the best market. There is plenty of t…
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Kivetat avatar
Kivetat 30 Янв.

Airmike  very professional and very interesting job)))

bagema2015 avatar
bagema2015 2 Февр.

and how much money should be in the account to invest?

bagema2015 avatar
bagema2015 2 Февр.

and how there is a risk of losing everything and become bankrupt?

bagema2015 avatar
bagema2015 2 Февр.

because with little money it can not be done? yes?

Airmike avatar
Airmike 2 Февр.

it depend on leverage. if you invest in no  leverage there is risk extremely low. because NZDCHF or NZDUSD is a rate with Interest rate differential. not an asset with yield.

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Как известно в экономике любого государства существуют экономические циклы — чередующиеся периоды рецессии и экономического подъема. То же самое можно сказать и о валюте отдельно взятой страны. Рассмотрим график пары евродоллар. Для более полного понимания все картины вернемся в прошлое и посмотрим на график пары с 79-го года:
На данном графике мы можем воочию увидеть причину текущих ожиданий рынка, а именно паритет евро с долларом США. Сегодня мы вплотную подошли к нижней границе канала к району 1.0 или к тому самому паритету. Иными словами вот вот наступит тот славный момент, когда пара евродоллар развернется и устремится далеко далеко вверх, примерно в район 1.8. И судя по всему это курс на ближайшие годы — лет 6-7.
Так когда же произойдет этот славный момент? И даст ли рынок исполниться мечте миллионов — паритету обоих валют? Для более конкретного ответа на данный вопрос обратимся к отчетам CFTC. Последние доступные на сегодня данные говорят нам следующее:
Итак из приведенных изображений мы видим, что по основным валютным парам доллар продан. Также продан он и непосредственно по индексу доллара.
Но что же происходит в мире и на рынке? Еще пару месяцев назад ФРС и ЕЦБ поумерил…
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Ernest_Motok avatar
Ernest_Motok 15 Нояб.

удачи, хорошо написал статью

Margoshka avatar
Margoshka 15 Нояб.

отлично!

WallStreetBlog avatar
WallStreetBlog 20 Нояб.

Interesting!

Margoshka avatar
Margoshka 22 Нояб.

))))very nice

Lyolichka_Voloshina avatar

отлично!!!

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Introduction
In this article USDJPY will be analyzed both fundamentally and technically and as known nothing is impossible in Forex so different scenarios will be drawn to express about the most probable scenarios with the USDJPY.
What is affected the move of USD/JPY nowadays:
Fundamental analysis:
USD/JPY is affected now by two different policies by both Bank of Japan (BOJ) and United States Federal Reserve (FED) and also affected strongly by BOJ quantitative easing which strongly hit Japanese Yen, finally Yen and other currencies is affected due to strong growth in US in the last months which make US$ to be favored.
Different policies by BOJ and FED:
In last Octeber,2014 BOJ Bank of Japan to inject 80 trillion yen into its economy “In a week when In a week when the US Federal Reserve announced it was calling time on bond buying program, the Bank of Japan moved in the opposite direction by increasing stimulus through an expansion of its quantitative easing (QE) program” (Source: theguardian).
In different, US FED is ready to raise interest rate for the first time from years, FED delayed its first rate hike more than once in order to prevent broad US$ gains which may dampen …
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9jakas avatar
9jakas 23 Сент.

Useful article.

Olga18375 avatar
Olga18375 23 Сент.

Yes. Useful!

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22/61
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Introduction
In this article, GBP/USD will be analyzed both fundamentally and technically and as known nothing is impossible in Forex, so different scenarios will be drawn to express about the most probable scenarios with the GBP /USD.
What is affected the move of GBP/USD nowadays:
Fundamental Analysis:
GBP/USD is affected now by two different policies by both Bank of England (BOE) and United States Federal Reserve (FED) and also affected sometimes by UK internal issues like last Scotland independence vote which spread fears about UK unity, finally pound and other currencies is affected due to strong growth in US in the last months which make US$ to be favored.
  • Different policies by BOE and FED:

One year ago, BOE hinted about possible rate hike after improvement of employment and inflation which hit 2%, but after strong fall of inflation to below 0, BOE still not able to talk about possible rate hike before next midyear.
In different, US FED is ready to raise interest rate for the first time from years, FED delayed its first rate hike more than once in order to prevent broad US$ gains which may dampen US growth, this time rate hike is very near but if something horrible hit …
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Durden avatar
Durden 22 Сент.


Great article, well written and useful

A bearish opinion on Pound ; )

Airmike avatar
Airmike 23 Сент.

nice article

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