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Fundamental Analysis GBP/USD/JPY/NZD

Martell Posted 22 Apr. in #GBP #Forex #Trader Contest #Gbpusd #Trader #Gbpjpy #Gbpnzd #Tradersblog

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После того, как данные по розничным продажам в марте в Великобритании оказались хуже ожиданий, курс GBP/USD вновь под давлением.

Инвесторы ошиблись, обнаружив, что продажи сократились на -1,8% в месяц, что говорит о том, что потребители начали резко сокращать расходы.

Поскольку в ближайшие месяцы инфляционное давление будет расти, даже когда темпы роста заработной платы не будут достигнуты, продажи, скорее всего, еще долго будут испытывать слабость.

С политической неопределенностью, порожденной всеобщими выборами, которые также могут ограничить внутренний рост в ближайшей перспективе, прогноз курса GBP/USD кажется медвежьим.

Если Тереза Мэй продолжит поддерживать жесткую Брексит во время агитации, это может привести к ухудшению настроения по отношению к Стерлингу, учитывая, что рынки держат пари, что большее Консервативное большинство увеличит шансы на более мягкий выход из ЕС.

Между тем доверие к доллару США упало, так как шансы повышения процентной ставки в июне от Федерального резерва снизились.

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GBP/JPY

Martell Posted 22 Mar. in #Forex #Trader Contest #Gbpjpy

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С технической точки зрения , сейчас отличная точка для открытия Long. Это показывает график H1 .
Цена лежи на уровне поддержки 138.500 , цель 140 - 140.500 .
Точку входа подтверждают индикаторы Stohastic и Bollinger Bands , завтра выходит статистика по Великобритании , по прогнозам она толкнёт пару вверх. Есть , маленькое НО . С фундаментальной точки зрения в длинной перспективе возможен пробой уровня 138.500 и тогда возможно очень большое падение вниз . Это подтверждает несколько фактов
По данным CTFC, крупные спекулянты продолжают активно продавать GBP . В Чикаго , объем продаж на фьючерсном рынке перескочил за годовой максимум. Спекулянты очень активно продают.
В заключении , в рамках внутридневной торговли сегодня - завтра надо открывать Long , если ваша цель длинная инвестиция , то лучше внимательно проанализировать ситуацию, возможно большое движение вниз .
На графиках H1 и М5 показаны точки входа
…

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Les Journées De Très Haute Volatilité: Gbpjpy Comme Exemple.

k_morocco Posted 22 Nov. in #Gbpjpy #Range #Daily Range #Volatilité #Risque #Gestion Du Risque

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581.Introduction
Le trading est une activité très hautement stressante, une des sources de ce stress est l'incertitude qui est la règle dans le forex.
Cependant pour un trader un minimum de confiance et une certaine connaissance de la nature du risque encouru est nécessaire.
Dans cette optique j'ai décidé d'étudier dans cet article la paire GBPJPY, connue pour être une des plus volatiles du forex, pour essayer de dégager des conclusions utiles au trader.

2.Matériel et méthode
L'étude portera sur le range daily de la paire GBPJPY, les données utilisées ont été extraites de la base de données historiques Dukascopy.
Le traitement des données a été fait après avoir importé les données dans le tableur Open Office.
La première partie de l'étude porte sur la fréquence des jours de grand range, et leur répartition dans le temps.
La deuxième partie se focalise sur l'étude des jours dont le range dépasse les 700 pips pour essayer de trouver des patterns.
Une conclusion et des recommandations pratiques seront déduites en fin.

3.Présentation des données
Les données ont été extraites à partir de la bases de données historiques Dukascopy, en utilisant l’outil Historical Data Manager.
Le résult…

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Analyse Technique De Quelques Paires De Devises

k_morocco Posted 24 Oct. in #Eurusd #Support #Audusd #Reversal #Usdmxn #Gbpjpy #Analyse Technique

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Dans cet article je vais analyser quelques paires de devises sur le weekly et le daily time frame en vue de d'avoir une vision globale des mouvements qui peuvent se dessiner les jours prochains.

EURUSD: un trend baissier qui s'approche d'une zone de support.

Sur le weekly la paire évolue toujours dans un trading range qui a débuter Mars 2015, la récente baisse de la paire l'a amener tout près de la de support à 1.07, qui représente la borne basse du trading range.
Sur le daily nous constatons un très fort momentum, mais comme sur le weekly se mouvement est déjà arrivé à une zone de support.
L'achat de l'EURUSD quand il montrera un comportement bullish est très justifié. Sur le daily il suffira de quelque chandelier de reversement, sur les lower time frame il faudra attendre les premiers higher low.

AUDUSD: Zone d'incertitude

Sur le weekly la paire est dans un trend baissier très soutenu qui l'a conduit au alentours d'une zone de support de 0.68.
Le trend baissier risque de se convertir en trading range puisque la paire a construit son premier higher low et a casser le lower high à 0.7380.
En ce moment la paire est tout prés du 0.7830.
Sur le Daily la paire s'inscrit dans u…

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Brexit: Preview

Sennna88 Posted 22 June in #Trader Contest #Gbpusd #Jforex #Gbpjpy #Brexit

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In the aftermath of the 2015 general election and amid growing calls from the UKIP (UK Independence Party), but also from his own Conservative party, the Prime Minister David Cameron promised to hold a Referendum on whether the UK should stay in the EU or leave. The Referendum, which is scheduled for 23 June 2016, is the first one after 1975, where the Brits voted to stay with the EU. To make things clear, the question is formulated as: "Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?"
Back in January, Cameron announced a "big win" in his negotiations with the EU, while his critics said his deal will make little difference and nothing but the "Leave" can save UK from the EU. One of the elements that Cameron strongly argued is that the UK will keep the pound as its currency and will not join single-currency community (19 out of 28 EU countries have adopted Euro as their currency).
Both sides have campaigned strongly to advocate for "Leave" or "Remain". On the latter side, the charge has been led by former Marks and Spencer chairman Lord Rose, but more importantly from the three UK's biggest parties: The Conservatives (Prime Minister David…

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Continuation Patterns: Triangles

Sennna88 Posted 13 Apr. in #Forex #Usdjpy #Patterns #Eurjpy #Gbpjpy #Ascending Triangle #Descending Triangle #Continuation #Symmetrical #Triangles

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Triangles represent one of the most popular patterns. Traditionally, they fall under the “continuation patterns”. Together with flags and pennants, these patterns indicate that the trend is pausing or in the consolidation mode before resuming in the same direction after a period of time. Once the breakout from the triangle happens, it is usually done in an accelerated manner. There are three types of triangles: the ascending triangle, the descending triangle and the symmetrical triangle.
The ascending triangles
In general, an ascending triangle indicates that the market is bullish and currently consolidating. In order to form the ascending triangle, the price has to be supported by a horizontal upward line, while the resistance line is either completely or relatively flat. As the price is going slowly up and the triangle lines converge, the chance of the breakout to the upside increases. Once the price breaks out (picture 1), that may present a signal for the entry point.
Picture 1. The ascending triangle on EURJPY Daily chart
One of the additional tips may be to look at the volume when the break out happened, i.e. the more volume accumulated within that particular candle, the mor…

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GBP/JPY Vulnerable to Brexit

Sennna88 Posted 4 Apr. in #Gbpusd #Gbpjpy #Referendum #Triangle Pattern #Brussels #Brexit

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GBP/JPY vulnerable to BREXIT
Since the referendum for BrExit has been confirmed by British PM Cameron for June 23, the market movers turned their focus to all GBP pairs. Aside major GBP/USD, the currency exchange rate for the pound against the yen is another fan favorite of the first half of 2016. Fundamentally, there are two key reasons to sell the pound on any decent rally:
1) BrExit. Many traders see this as an opportunity for the "sell the rumours buy the news". Similar to the Scottish referendum, the pounds has been aggressively offered in anticipation of the posible "yes" vote. The recent YouGov polls have "no" at 52%, while "yes" has 44% support of the British public, showing how close the referendum results may happen to be. I fully expect the pound to be under pressure until June 23rd, especially during the month of May, when the campaign intensity picks up.
2) Europe attacks. The recent Paris and Brussels attacks showed us how vulnerable global market actually is. Instead of hitting the euro, actually it was the pound as the worst performer on the day of Brussels attacks, as British skeptics used this as an opportunity to advocate for the exit. Since the yen is serving as…

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June Chronicles 3

fr33m4n Posted 19 June in #Technical analysis #Eurusd #Gbpusd #Gbpjpy #Technical Indicators

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It is very funny how some trends “sneak” past us simply because we are not looking at the right thing, or too engrossed in the wrong thing.
But there are so many markets to trade!!
So many opportunities to make money!!
While the above statements are true, in this business it is not effective to be a Jack-of-all and a master of none. Focus is essential for success during trading. Many trading blogs advise new traders to specialize in few particular pairs, because every pair is different and unique.
The Gbpjpy market does not move in the same way as the Eurgbp market. If we were to compare the volatility of both markets, we would discover that they are miles apart. So it is good to focus on the right pairs and the right trading tools; to get the most out of trading the forex market. This is the first lesson I learnt as a forex trader. The pairs I watch are the Eurusd, Gbpjpy, Eurjpy and Gbpusd.
For charting analysis, I have found that the four-hourly chart has the best representation of price movement, and that good entries can be taken off the hourly charts. You can trade off the four-hourly charts directly, but it is good to try and fine-tune trading entries.
My methodology in…

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What Ever Happened to the Carry Trade? (part 1)

fxsurprise8 Posted 19 Dec. in #Audjpy #Carry Trade #Gbpjpy #Carry #Rollover #Subprime Crisis #Mortgage Crisis #Forex History #UK Interest Rate #Japan Interest Rate

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What ever happened to the carry trade? Back in the middle of 2007 I was just a year into my trading "apprenticeship". I just had just blown my first account and was trying to find the perfect system that will make me a millionaire overnight. I knew a friend who was just starting out in trading, lets call him Bob. "Bob" got into forex trading by hearing about the "Carry Trade".What is the "Carry Trade" ?A "Carry Trade" is executed when you borrow a currency that has a low interest rate, like the Japanese Yen and at the same time you buy a currency that has a high interest rate. You make a profit of the interest rate differential between the two currencies, also called Carry or Rollover.The prime example for a so called "funding currency" for the past decade has been the Japanese Yen. The Bank of Japan has kept interest rates in the near zero range for close to 15 years now. See the chart below for this.As can be seen on the chart, Japan's interest rates stayed in the 0%-0.5% range all throughout the past decade. Even to this day Japan has one of the lowest interest rates of the world ranging at 0%-0.10%.Back in 2007 there were a lot of currencies with "high" interest rates. The more…

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Buy 5 December 2011 Gbpjpy and Usdjpy

Drackyboy Posted 2 Dec. in #Analysis #Usdjpy #To #Gbpjpy #By #Drakyboy #On #Megabuy #And

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MEGA BUY MONDAY 5 december 2011 (ON USDJPY AND GBPJPY) BOJ will make a intervention their minister told that this action will hapen veryy soonFriday, the Statistical Office of Employment in the U.S. announced that in March there was an increase in the number of jobs in non-agricultural sector with 162,000, however, the unemployment rate remained at 9.7%. Although the number was below forecasts (which were 184 000), it seems to signify a return to creating jobs in the U.S. economy still being healing.Among the positive effectsIn almost all industrial sectors has been an increase in employment. Notable sectors in this regard is the construction (which grew by 15,000 jobs), the production (which employed 17,000 employees), and temporary employment (which was an increase of 40,000) . This figure is notable especially because it confirms that employers have sought a revival of activity.Among the negative effectsIn March, long-term unemployed (over 6 months) increased by 414,000 (to 6.5 million). Overall, long-term unemployment affects 41% of unemployed people seeking jobs, a figure that illustrates how hard it back into the labor market.Market reactionIncreasing the number of employees…

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Fundamental Analysis GBP/USD/JPY/NZD

GBP/JPY

Les Journées De Très Haute Volatilité: Gbpjpy Comme Exemple.

Analyse Technique De Quelques Paires De Devises

Brexit: Preview

Continuation Patterns: Triangles

GBP/JPY Vulnerable to Brexit

June Chronicles 3

What Ever Happened to the Carry Trade? (part 1)

Buy 5 December 2011 Gbpjpy and Usdjpy

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