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17/65
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После того, как данные по розничным продажам в марте в Великобритании оказались хуже ожиданий, курс GBP/USD вновь под давлением.
  • Инвесторы ошиблись, обнаружив, что продажи сократились на -1,8% в месяц, что говорит о том, что потребители начали резко сокращать расходы.

  • Поскольку в ближайшие месяцы инфляционное давление будет расти, даже когда темпы роста заработной платы не будут достигнуты, продажи, скорее всего, еще долго будут испытывать слабость.
  • С политической неопределенностью, порожденной всеобщими выборами, которые также могут ограничить внутренний рост в ближайшей перспективе, прогноз курса GBP/USD кажется медвежьим.
  • Если Тереза ​​Мэй продолжит поддерживать жесткую Брексит во время агитации, это может привести к ухудшению настроения по отношению к Стерлингу, учитывая, что рынки держат пари, что большее Консервативное большинство увеличит шансы на более мягкий выход из ЕС.
  • Между тем доверие к доллару США упало, так как шансы повышения процентной ставки в июне от Федерального резерва снизились.

[list][/list]…
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anashape avatar
anashape 19 Maj

well done!

yuliia_fortune avatar

Good!

Chilli avatar
Chilli 8 Cze

very good

shahrukh avatar
shahrukh 16 Lip

great analysis

shahrukh avatar
shahrukh 16 Lip

that's my girl, wish good luck

lubZostaw komentarz
33/65
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What the market has priced in already...

As we see, we are around the level of post referendum, when Brexit, especially hard Brexit was not certain at all. This is quite an optimistic and strong reaction from the market. The market has priced in almost a reversal in British approach.
No hard Brexit is just a hope

What we have to remember as traders is that right now it is just hopes priced in, without generally any hard facts to support them yet.
As it is used to be said 'sell the gossip, buy the fact'. The facts are still to be seen and assesed while gossip sold pretty well, giving disconnected with reality 180 degree sentiment change in the market.
Why disconnected? Well, maybe polls are not trusted recently, but this time they show Conservative Party being 20% ahead. That is quite a decisive prediction. Lead by Theresa May and her party, British would have hard Brexit almost assured, that is unless the party itself had huge internal differences in Brexit approach.
It seems that market just might have gotten a bit too excited again, this time to the upside.
The most positive scenario
Even if hard Brexit was somehow forgotten by the government, there still would be Brexit on the…
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mariailkiv avatar

хорошая статья!!

LizaQ avatar
LizaQ 24 Kwi

Great!

hrustiashka avatar

Good article. Thanks

antoniogreenblue avatar

Interesting

RahmanSL avatar

Useful article

lubZostaw komentarz
25/59
Ranking
Dear Valuable Reader,
Have you ever wondered which currencies receive the most trading action? The data for the following chart comes from a survey done every three years by the Bank of International Settlements (BIS).
Note that trading volume adds up to 200%, because each currency trade has a pairing.
The Chinese Yuan is now the 8th most traded currency in the world, for a total share of 4.0%.
That means its share has doubled since the 2013 BIS report:
But what is bitcoin’s trading volume like, relative to other currencies?
Bitcoin: In the last 30 days, about $3 billion of bitcoin has been traded, which averages out to $100 million per day.

Other Currencies:
The total amount of forex transactions per day is $5.1 trillion. The estimated daily turnover of just the Chinese yuan is $202 billion per day.
That means that the yuan has approximately 2,000x the volume traded of bitcoin, while total forex is 51,000x the size. In other words, bitcoin has a way to go to become one of the world’s most traded currencies.
Almost the traders in the world are trading now EUR/USD , which came in the 1st rank in 2016 for the most traded pair, by which reflects that it is the most volume of money fl…
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Illya avatar
Illya 31 Mar

Good!

Vlad73 avatar
Vlad73 31 Mar

good job

FXRabbit avatar
FXRabbit 31 Mar

Well written!

Verona888 avatar

Useful information!

SikmaN avatar
SikmaN 31 Mar

Успехов!!!

lubZostaw komentarz
21/59
Ranking
How did I come to conclusion that avoiding pairs with USD might be a good idea for some time?

Although I agree that US election definitely was a great, tradeable opportunity (though not an easy one), right now I see no certain direction that FX majors will go this month. After the election things went out totally out of control. We had several situation when USD moved opaque to data reads due to new President's decisions causing major upset and mayhem across the markets. Probably some will say it is their kind of environment to trade on - volatile, sometimes rapid. Yet everyone has to agree that we have a high risk of unscheduled and unpredictable events moving USD now in a rather unknown direction.
Sometimes it is better to play safe instead of lose looking for enormous moves, in other words, better safe than sorry. The conclusion to avoid USD pairs for some time comes logical as we should base our trades on past, meaning technical analysis or on extrapolation of past data, meaning fundametal analysis and both do not work as it should now. It is also difficult to base trades on Mr Trump since he uses to tell contradictory things.

Is there anywhere to run?

Yes, the…
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ak10 avatar
ak10 8 Luty

Rightly explained. Very useful.

antoniogreenblue avatar

Good explained. Related do GBP I like and trade the GBP/JPY ;)

Beto avatar
Beto 12 Luty

It seems to be nice work with cross pairs for now, good share of information and research.

FXRabbit avatar
FXRabbit 23 Luty

Well written!

al_dcdemo avatar

Great job!

lubZostaw komentarz
27/56
Ranking
GBP Flash Crash

Threads for landing GBP indicate a lack of knowledge and Lack of understanding of the market
Sure, a lot of threads opened for falling pound but strangely looking for an explanation and interpretation is in front of him because the market is just supply and demand
One of these articles and with respect for the writer, who I will not mention his name, who arrived to accuse of stealing the market. In fact this shows a lack of knowledge !!!!
We often hear about Black Swan And how it was born of a black father and white mother and white brothers, Why it was born black, we have no explanation, That's what we saw after falling pound in one second More than 5.6% after touching almost 1,195 levels And corrected at least minutes by approximately 4.46%, Leaving a gap between the lowest price and the highest price after correction by approximately 1%.
Is there an explanation of what happened ?
Is this what we call the Computer Glitch (technical problem in the computer or program) The officer of the equations of trading?
There are some call Erroneous Trade (false trade literal translation) as stated by Bloomberg, It is known that type of error was due for correction within hal…
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al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 21 Paź

Excellent work!

priceaction113 avatar

The BoE also want low rate of gbp

FXNOAD avatar
FXNOAD 24 Paź

Yes this is the next move after hard brexit @priceaction113

FXNOAD avatar
FXNOAD 24 Paź

Thank you @al_dcdemo

SvetLena avatar
SvetLena 25 Paź

very good!) thanks

lubZostaw komentarz
13/47
Ranking
The bank of England, contrary to some expectations, left an interest rate without changes, having used meetings for "blamestorming session" to preparation of actions in August. Japan has confirmed an additional packet of stimulation. Representatives of FRS were active. RBNZ throws up suspicions. David Cameron has sung. The European Central Bank will hold a meeting on Thursday.
Abe gives a green light
On Monday, the Prime minister of Japan, Abe, has confirmed that he has given instructions to the government to prepare a new package of stimulation. USDJPY has reached new maxima having started on rumors.
All bargained to week on this information. To a package of stimulation to be, will be, the yen has left on this track.
The bank of England left a rate invariable and left probability of its decrease in August
The pound has shown activity since Monday, and political news became the first geyner of growth.
Speech of the alleged new Prime minister, Theresa May who on Wednesday became the new head of the country has been announced. Originally Cameron had to remain with a steering wheel till September, but processes have accelerated, and David Cameron has sung to us at parting on Tuesday
P…
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Armands avatar
Armands 23 Lip

Not sure that Bank of England will decrease the rate, I suspect that they could use it for pushing up the GBP - expectations to lower the rate, but keep it the same again.

Aviator avatar
Aviator 27 Lip

good job

Klaudia25 avatar

отличная статья!

Sharpshooter avatar

Любопытно

Efegen avatar
Efegen 9 Sie

Let prices go up and down. Let the winds of trend come. So that we have more chance of getting some pips :) Amen

lubZostaw komentarz
10/52
Ranking
1. Introduction.

Les sujets de Sa Très Gracieuse Majesté devront se rendre aux urnes le 23 juin pour décider de quitter ou de rester dans l'union européenne. A défaut de pouvoir confronter les idées que le temps ne permet plus, les deux camps s'affrontent à coup d'arguments péremptoires. Tout le monde aura bien compris que l'enjeu de ce référendum va bien au-delà de l'avenir seul du Royaume-Uni dans l'union européenne.
Face aux déclarations des uns et des autres, les autorités européennes se veulent optimistes mais se gardent bien de tout commentaire qui pourrait retourner l'opinion publique. Les marchés, quant à eux, sont à la baisse face à des sondages indécis. Nous reviendrons plus en détail sur chacun de ces points.
2. Opinions

Les sorties du premier ministre britannique, David Cameron, ont été nombreuses ces derniers temps. Il a exhorté ses concitoyens à voter en faveur d'un maintien du Royaume-Uni dans l'union européenne en insistant sur les conséquences d'un Brexit.
Selon le premier ministre, une sortie de l'union aura l'effet "d'une bombe sur l'économie britannique"...."Nous aurons une décennie d'incertitude.... qui pompera l'énergie du gouvernement et du pays", en référe…
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Yulia10 avatar
Yulia10 21 Cze

nice article!

Faster avatar
Faster 22 Cze

nice article

vikyllya avatar
vikyllya 23 Cze

very good

JuliannaS avatar

So good and interesting

tomaca avatar
tomaca 26 Cze

Получилось очень интересно, пробили вверх канал и тут же резкое падение вниз, как вы и говорили, пробили вниз 1,3830, и теперь, так думаю все таки Британцы  будут укреплять свою валюту, как вы думаете?

lubZostaw komentarz
30/59
Ranking
Today’s session is expected to be uneventful with bank holidays in France, Germany and Switzerland and no significant economic data due until Empire State Manufacturing Index during the NY session. As always on Mondays I prepared the currency update so you can familiarize with the situation in the markets.
Currency Update
USD: NFP for April missed on the headline figure at 160k vs 202k expected. However, Average Hourly Earnings came in as expected at a solid 0.3% rise for the month, which bodes well for the inflation picture and prompted some upside in the USD post release. The Fed’s April 27 statement failed to provide any further clarity on when the Bank may raise rates. There was no indication in the statement that a rate hike is likely in June, with Fed fund futures pricing a less than 20% chance of a hike at that meeting. CPI for March slightly missed estimates with Core dropping to 2.2% y/y from a prior of 2.3% and for the month, missing estimates at 0.1% versus 0.2% expected.
EUR: Flash GDP for Q1 missed expectations at 0.5% q/q versus expectations of 0.6%, and at 1.5% y/y versus expectations of 1.6%. Inflation data for April has pushed the Eurozone back into deflation. CPI …
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Sennna88 avatar
Sennna88 20 Maj

Was it helpful in the end ?

hrustiashka avatar

Good analysis

s_amira avatar
s_amira 23 Maj

Interesting article

yaritza2 avatar
yaritza2 24 Maj

thank you!!!

klintons avatar
klintons 26 Maj

Good Job

lubZostaw komentarz
21/66
Ranking


1.0 Introduction

GBP has depreciated in the 7 months up to February substantially. This was most conspicuous on the GBP/JPY pair which
was down by over 20% and GBP/USD pair which has dropped by over 12% and reached a 7 year low at 1.3835. Afterwards
the GBP has bounced back up to around 161 and 1.44 and is currently trading at around 159 and 1.41 respectively.
The two main factors determining it’s further trend direction for the upcoming months will be the potential Bank of England’s interest rate decision as well as the referendum taking place on June 23rd and being decisive on whether United Kingdom will stay or leave the EU.
1.1 EU Referendum
The Fitch Ratings agency has issued a report stating that Brexit would “drive short-term disruption and long-term risks” and that the “precise impact would be highly uncertain”.The referendum factor is solely political and unpredictable, although BoE Governor Mark Carney has reassured that additional liquidity will be provided to the banking sector before and after the referendum in order to avoid any potential insolvency problems. However, as the campaign unveils we will probably see many turnarounds in polls and predictions and this wil…
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Daytrader21 avatar

Good job!!

WallStreet6 avatar

Thanks!

Goodini avatar
Goodini 1 Kwi

good article

driven avatar
driven 2 Kwi

Interesting article. Well done!

Kivetat avatar
Kivetat 19 Kwi

Very good job)))) Thank u for this informative and interesting article))))

lubZostaw komentarz
7/66
Ranking
  • Introduction

Le Brexit, composé des termes Britain et exit, désigne l'éventualité d'un retrait du Royaume-Uni de l'Union Européenne. La question n'est pas nouvelle et a été maintes fois débattue au Royaume-Uni depuis son intégration au sein de la CEE en 1973. La ferveur des débats ne porte pas sur l'attachement culturelle de ce pays à l'Union Européenne mais tient seulement à l'intérêt économique des Britanniques à se maintenir dans l'Union Européenne, et ce, en dépit du régime dérogatoire dont il bénéficie depuis son intégration. Rappelons pour l'exemple que le Royaume-Uni n'est pas dans l'espace Schengen et a conservé sa monnaie.
Le premier Ministre, David Cameron a entamé depuis longtemps des négociations avec les autorités européennes portant sur un ensemble de concessions en échange d'un maintien dans l'Union Européenne. En date du 19 février 2016, un compromis qui accorde un statut spécial au Royaume-Uni a été trouvé. Cet accord sera soumis à référendum le 23 juin 2016.
Les débats s'annoncent d’ores et déjà houleux avec en tête de file le Parti pour l'indépendance du Royaume-Uni et son représentant emblématique, Nigel Farage. De même, le maire de Londres, Boris Johnson, se po…
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Olkiss70 avatar
Olkiss70 25 Mar

useful work

Olkiss70 avatar
Olkiss70 25 Mar

do you think Brexit will happen?

Yulia10 avatar
Yulia10 25 Mar

great article!

isomere avatar
isomere 25 Mar

@Olkiss70: very low chance for it.

s_amira avatar
s_amira 8 Maj

So interesting!

lubZostaw komentarz
21/66
Ranking
С периодом в один месяц по британской экономике выходит определенный список экономических данных, которые обращают на себя внимание со стороны форекс-игроков и заполняют любой форекс-календарь, в выходе этих новостей есть свои закономерности и последовательности, которые соблюдаются на протяжении немалого времени.
Почти вся масса макроэкономических данных публикуется в 9-30 по лондонскому времени, небольшую часть этих данных предоставляет частная организация MARKIT, которая также публикует данные по экономикам европы. Другую часть экономических данных и более весомую, предоставляет государство в лице Office for National Statistic (ONS). На их сайте http://www.ons.gov.uk/ есть самая актуальная статистика по Великобритании, взятая из разных сфер жизни страны.
Экономический календарь от ONS
ONS начинает публикации с 4-5 рабочего дня, избегает понедельника и изредка может выпустить по 2 различной новости в одно время, первые данные выходят всегда по Industrial Production, также в начале месяца есть Trade Balance и Construction Output, в середине месяца в среду выходит Claimant Count Change - данные по безработице, во второй половине месяца Retail Sales, Consumer Price index, Public …
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Milian avatar
Milian 26 Lis

прекрасная работа!))  удачи в конкурсе))

isomere avatar
isomere 27 Lis

interesting view.

tdbatinkov avatar

well done

mcquak avatar
mcquak 3 Gru

good reading m8

llolor avatar
llolor 8 Gru

Interesting read

lubZostaw komentarz
30/43
Ranking
Hello all,
This is my first post and I hope it finds you good.
I am following the UK economy news for sometime and I found that the news and information are not good with respect to their economy. Please follow some of my views. The reason I have mentioned that the economic outlook of GBP looks little worrying because of the following fact,
Manufacturing and Production sectors are struggling. Factories and Outlets are reducing the workers since September which means the unemployment rate is growing. On the other side, UK has increased the biggest pay hike last month whereas the unemployment continue to rise because of the manufacturing sector dullness which is a big bubble in employment rate and salary ratio. One such jobless incident is, last month SSI Redcar steel plant stopped it's production and 1700 workers will be unemployed.
About housing sector, the price is continuously climbing high. But there are also several criticism over the housing and mortgage sectors, that it's is failed to meet the housing requirements of common people. Also two days earlier, there was a statement from UK banking sector about Household sector problems and financial downturn risk because of Mortgag…
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ijayakumar avatar
ijayakumar 14 Paź

I have created this content on Sep 29th, unfortunately I didn't submit it correctly and it's delayed post now!

Airmike avatar
Airmike 21 Paź

nice article

ijayakumar avatar
ijayakumar 21 Paź

Thanks!

Olga18375 avatar
Olga18375 28 Paź

Interesting!! Good luck friend!

Rita1808 avatar
Rita1808 28 Paź

Good work!

lubZostaw komentarz
21/61
Ranking

Currency fluctuations in the currency market is essentially caused by the appreciation or depreciation of currencies; at every point in time one currency in the market is either gaining in value (appreciating) or losing in value (depreciation).
The global economic scene is very diverse, with different economic activities and data being processed daily. Economies with strong growth and development tend to have appreciating currencies, while economies not perceived to be doing well tend to have depreciating currencies.
So a currency’s appreciating is directly tied to the state of its economy. When the USD (United States Dollar) is appreciating, what happens to the EURUSD?
The best way to visualize this is to use a scale. If the USD is appreciating over the EUR, it means the USD has more weight or demand than the EUR. So the market will go in the direction of the “heavier” currency.
However, some economies may choose to devalue their currency in order to spur economy growth.
An example is the Japanese yen (JPY), which the Bank of Japan regularly devalues through acts of intervention in the currency markets. By keeping the Japanese yen low, the currency is cheaper and attractive to f…
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SalviLeana avatar

Well done

Margoshka avatar

good

Airmike avatar
Airmike 21 Wrz

nice article

lubZostaw komentarz
17/53
Ranking
The announcement
The Bank of England has decided to change it’s communication form and has squeezed in many releases into one announcement starting this month. The previous form of communicating was criticized for being inconsistent as information was divided into many releases across two weeks interval.
For the first time under the new order information was provided on the 6th of August. The Monetary Policy Committee vote took place as well as the minutes report, both on one day. The Monetary Policy Committee has voted against a rate hike with the votes divided 1 to 8, with 1 for and 8 against.
The consensus was at 2 to 9 with Ian McCafferty and Martin Weale voting for and possibly a third person as well. This outcome was disappointing for the market. The minutes have shown that there is a divide when it comes to the time of starting to cut down on the QE program. Additionally the inflation report was provided. The forecasts concerning inflation rate have been lowered for the rest of the year. The 2015 forecast has been lowered from 0.6% to 0.3%. It has also been mentioned that the downward pressures from low energy prices may persist until mid 2016. Howoever, by that time inflat…
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al_dcdemo avatar

Useful information, very well explained and written. Nice job!

WallStreet6 avatar

Thanks:)

Olga18375 avatar

Interesting post! Good job)

foreignexchange avatar

great

Margoshka avatar

))yes!great

lubZostaw komentarz
13/58
Ranking
I have decided to write a follow up to my previous article about GBP due to the fact that last week there was important news coming from the UK which gives insight into the upcoming monetary policy of the Bank of England.
The week in review
On the 14th of July we saw the release of the Consumer Price Index for June which disappointed as it retreated to 0.0% YoY and MoM from 0.1% growth in May. Although the reading was better than in April which saw a drop of -0.1% which was the lowest level in over 50 years, the retreat comes in as a hindrance to the plan of the BoE of embarking on a rate hike schedule. The core CPI, which measures price changes among energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, has slowed to0.8% from 0.9% in May.
These data releases gave a bearish perspective for the GBP. However, afterwards the governor of Bank of England MarkCarney said in his statement that the BoE expects inflation to pick up later this year when the effects of lower oil and food prices subside. Thus, the time for interest rate hikes, which are going to be gradual, is coming closer, however he did not specify when. He said, "the point at which interest rates may begin to rise is moving closer with the p…
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Milian avatar
Milian 28 Lip

great)))

pipx avatar
pipx 28 Lip

I was sure the cable would hit 1.6 and went long this month in the trader contest boy was I wrong :-) In August I believe it will. Lets wait and see

WallStreet6 avatar

Thanks:) Yes, I think it may continue to appreciate in August and maybe even hit the 1.60 level. Especially that today's GDP came on target. But later on I think it will go the other way:)

sarah_gio avatar

+1

Margoshka avatar

very interesting

lubZostaw komentarz