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26/43
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I find it useful to look at the big picture from time to time. In technical analysis terms that usually means inspection of weekly and/or monthly charts. However, I rarely get to see analysis of "ultra-high" timeframe charts, so I decided to make few attempts of my own. Last week I analysed long term charts of the Euro. Here's the link in case you missed it: https://www.dukascopy.com/fxcomm/fx-article-contest/?A-Long-Term-Technical-Look&action=read&id=2626.
Today, I'll have a look at yearly and quarterly Yen charts. Both are covering the period from 1971 to 2015. Since platform's historical data for this pair is currently available from 1986 only, I had to fill in the missing data manually. I've drawn the candles using "Short Line" chart objects.
Yearly chart:
Quarterly chart:
Following the end of the Bretton Woods System (1971), during which the value of yen was fixed at 360 per dollar, the pair embarked on a long term downtrend which lasted until 1995 (although one might argue that it still lasts). After that, the pair entered a wedge-like sideways consolidation but it did broke below 1995 low in the 2011-2012 period. The low was set near 75 and the pair turned back up from ther…
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Airmike avatar
Airmike 12 Oct.

nice

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 13 Oct.

To clarify the second paragraph of the article: there is no historical data missing and Dukascopy is one of few brokers that I came across that provides the data going that far in the past and that's more than enough in most cases. But I think it would be awesome to have (daily) historical data from 1971 on all the majors and the respective crosses.

Vitalinka_Pavlenko avatar

Interesting post! Well done! Good luck!

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 31 Oct.

Thanks to all for your great comments!

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10/45
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INTRODUCTION

Despite being technical analysis indicators, the powerful Fibonacci tools are widely used even by fundamental analysis traders. Unlike the common lagging indicators, they can predict future price levels . I leave the debate of whether this is a self-fulfilling prophecy or a bias toward a law in nature to others. Those tools will be explained in this article one by one.
FIBONACCI & THE FIBONACCI NUMBER SEQUENCE
Fibonacci was a thirteenth-century talented mathematician who described the numerical series now named after him. In the Fibonacci sequence of numbers, after 0 and 1, each number is the sum of the two prior numbers. Hence, the sequence is as follows: 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233, 377, 610 and so on extending to infinity. Each number is approximately 1.618 times greater than the preceding number.
THE GOLDEN RATIO
This figure 1.618 is called Phi or the Golden Ratio. The inverse of 1.618 is 0.618. The golden ratio appears everywhere in Nature from the micro scale to the macro scale. Things that are based on this divine proportion are beautiful and shapely and things that do not contain it look ugly and seem suspicious and unnatural.
FIBO
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MohadAjaj avatar
MohadAjaj 28 Feb.

great explanation

Mohamed16 avatar
Mohamed16 28 Feb.

good article

corneliu avatar
corneliu 28 Feb.

good luck!

VALTRAD avatar
VALTRAD 28 Feb.

Тема действительно освещена развёрнуто.

Nihad avatar
Nihad 28 Feb.

Very informative. There is no magic in it, the secret lies in that from long time ago floor and pit traders used it as Support & Resistance levels. Therefore, traders all around the world respects these levels fully. You will always find the price action is very slow when approaching any level, that's respect

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18/35
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OVERVIEW OF THE EUR/USD MARKET After a sustained seven year uptrend, the EUR/USD market reached an all time high of 1.6038 in July 2008. Since then, the market has been in a long term consolidation for about four years. Within this range, EUR/USD has been alternating between bear and bull markets lasting from a few months to about one year. Figure 1 illustrates the long term behaviour of EUR/USD. Figure 1: EUR/USD monthly chart The pinkish curve on the above and other charts in this article; represents the 21 period simple moving average. The high point of the current EUR/USD bear market started on 4th May 2011 after the previous bull market topped at 1.4940. Following a mid-term consolidation between May and August, the market made a bearish breakout in September 2011 - which can now be recognized as the first wave of a classic Elliott’s wave formation. The various waves of this formation are illustrated on Figure 2 and labelled in black. Figure 2: Elliott’s waves in EUR/USD downtrend as seen on weekly chart It is apparent from the weekly chart above, that the market has completed the fifth major wave of the bear market and embarked on corrective wave A. Note the dive…
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alifari avatar
alifari 24 Sep.

Nice article with chart explanation

scramble avatar
scramble 24 Sep.

I think this analysis is complete since points out some important FACTS occuring in last few weeks and gives a good idea on what could happen in the near future. Well done.

pichou avatar
pichou 24 Sep.

o totally agree. in my august article i said the low for the year was 1.2042

captain avatar
captain 25 Sep.

yes pichou, that could very well be the low for the year

DaddyPapi avatar
DaddyPapi 27 Sep.

Interesting article...shows how people view same charts differently..I think that the main reason it didnt reach that 261.8% is because it hit the support of the monthly consolidation which I draw as a horizontal line at 1,2334..also, I see another bearish trend line starting at 1,4938 and the monthly consolidation resistance still keeping it bearish

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40/67
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Looking at this AUD vs JPY
chart you will notice where I have placed the letters A, B, C & D in red.
We will discuss what these letters mean as we talk about 1 to 1 ratio or AB =
CD. You can see how the market declined from point A to point B, then retraced
to point C before continuing the decline to our projected area at D. How did we
get this projected area at D before the market even gets there? We are
expecting the move from C to D to be as long as the previous move from A to B. In
other words if A to B was 100 pips move down then we are expecting the move
from C to D to be roughly around 100 pips. How can this help you in your
trading? This gives you a target area to take profit and allows you to maximize
your profit rather than getting out too early. Now we do know that nothing is
100 percent guaranteed with the forex market but this is something to add in
your arsenal when trading.
There are a few qualities to look for when trying to identify
this pattern or to validate the pattern. Once you have a retracement from point
B the point C can not be formed higher than point A. Usually you will have a
retracement to one of the Fibonacci retracement levels.  A retrace…
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scramble avatar
scramble 14 May

simple things are always best ones when trading! i'm not an ichimoku fan, but about the AB=CD price evolution i would have spent some more words, with some more examples. just my idea :-) anyway i like the way you make it simple!
good luck

RobertBric avatar

I started with ABCD trading where AB=CD. I realised quickly that in order to optimise trading something more was needed. This is when I included the wave structure into the equation via Elliott Wave analysis. However, ABCD is a good simple way of introducing traders into the behaviour of the markets. All the very best with ABCD trading

alifari avatar
alifari 19 May

This is one of the pattern I use in my trading +1

doctortyby avatar

The ABCD pattern works only in certain market conditions, usually in a trend and especially in the direction of the Major Trend. +!

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36/100
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      Week-end Analysis -19-23.12 - Daily and 4H    This is the second article from My week-end Analysis Series (Technical and Fundamental), Analysis that I UPDATE (almost) DAILY, through the comments of the article for each Pair analysed, and also in my Trading blog and in the comments of the Trades.      You can read my first article, as a model, of how a Week-end analysis should look like, here:Week-end Technical Analysis for Next Week in Dukascopy Contest      This week We will analyse  the most important Currency Pairs pairs traded in Dukascopy Trading Contest:- EUR/USD,- GBP/USD, - AUD/USD, - NZD/USD,- USD/JPY, - USD/CHF, - USD/CAD,As a Reminder from last week, My Week-end Technical Analysis is based mainly on:- Dialy Pivot Points, Supports and Resistences,- Weekly Pivot Points, Supports and Resistences,- Monthly Pivot Points, Supports and Resistences,- Fibonacci Retracements,- Trendlines,- Channels,- Crosses between Simple Moving Averages on 4H, 1H, and daily charts( 30,50,100 and 200 SMA) - for trading signals,- candlestick formations - trading signals,- crosses between 5 and 13 Exponential Moving Averages on 1H, 4H and daily charts - trading signals.- I also use indicators…
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doctortyby avatar
doctortyby 23 Dec.

FRIDAY UPDATE - USD/JPY: If price breaks Daily S1 Level standing at 78,04, could reach 77,918 (Daily S2), or even weekly Pivot Main Line(77,85). Upside resistence 78,12 (Weekly R1 and Daily Pivot Confluence), and further 78,24 (Daily R1). Happy Holidays everyone and Happy Trading

doctortyby avatar
doctortyby 23 Dec.

FRIDAY UPDATE - USD/CHF: Is accumulating strenght trending inside a congestion area. A break under daily S1 (0,93) or upside 0,9386 (Weekly Pivot) would signal higher amplitude moves. Neutral Right now on this pair.Happy Holidays everyone and Happy Trading

doctortyby avatar
doctortyby 23 Dec.

FRIDAY UPDATE - USD/CAD: this pair had the highest amplitude price action yesterday (about 70 pips). Price is trending in a downtrend on 1H chart with the first support at Daily S1 (1,0182), next 1,015 (daily s2 confluence with uptrendline on higher time frames). If price will break that trendline, look for signals for a higher amplitude bearish move. Upside we have an important Resistence area between 1,0225 and 1,0238 (Monthly Pivot Main Line and weekly S1). Happy trading and Happy Holidays

musmus avatar
musmus 29 Dec.

nice article.congratulation

Drackyboy avatar
Drackyboy 31 Dec.

frumos articol+1

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8/100
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   Hello My Friends,This week I have decided to start a series of week-end "silent" technical analysis. Most traders start trading on Monday Opening, based entirely on "Gap filling" or "naked trading" Price Action, acting by emotional trading decisions. I said Monday opening because in my country, Market opens exactly at 00.00 o'clock on Monday.I personally, strongly believe that a Minimum "cold" Technical Analysis, for a better understanding of price action is needed. Surely this analysis has to be correlated with fundamental analysis and news announcements, to find the higher probability of successful trading in the right direction.Always we are required to Follow the Market, and wait for clear technical signals for a higher probability of bearish or bullish moves of the price. Of course we have to pay attention to news announcements that occure during the week-end.Let's Proceed with our analisys.I will make the tecnical analysis for the currencie airs that I mostly trade:- Eur/Usd,  - Gbp/Usd, - Eur/Gbp, - Eur/Chf, - Eur/Jpy,   - Usd/Jpy,  - Usd/chf, - Usd/Nok, - Usd/Sgd, - Aud/Jpy,  - Usd/Sek, - Chf/Jpy, - Usd/Cad, - Nzd/Usd,  - Aud/Usd.I will also make a brief analysis of USD …
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MyiDEA avatar
MyiDEA 18 Dec.

good wishes for this competition...and you..

men79 avatar
men79 18 Dec.

Yeah, really interesting ...

Eclipse avatar
Eclipse 20 Dec.

Very good analysis. Thank you doctortyby +1

Eclipse avatar
Eclipse 20 Dec.

Best wishes:)

musmus avatar
musmus 29 Dec.

very good article +1

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