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24/68
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Christmas break
Right now, as we all should be well rested after Christmas and New Year time, we have to remember though, that there were events occuring and the market will be likely pricing all things in with some delay now.
Since we might have gone a little bit out-of-zone as most of us likely spent great time with families and friends, I will try to give some compilation of the most important news (in my opinion) that could help to get us back in-zone faster.
In general, I'd just like to mention, we are likely to see increased volatility during the first weeks of the January, as many are coming back to the market with us alike. I advise to pick the trades carefully as we can earn really a lot now with the right choices or lose a huge sum with the wrong choices.
Well, for traders it is just about time to really get up now, together with markets!
Important events&data
  1. Turkish lira - the very first candidate for being the biggest mover this month or even this year. Breaking the most important data that came just on the very first days of the year 2017 according to that currency:
[list][/list]…
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Avnish26 avatar
Avnish26 20 Jan.

We just have to keep watch all the time. No holidays in forex world.

vikyllya avatar
vikyllya 20 Jan.

отличная статья!!

wisdom_consultant avatar

nice article and cat!

Sveetlana avatar
Sveetlana 20 Jan.

good job!

brilliant avatar
brilliant 25 Jan.

well done

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26/69
Ranking
Fundamentals still supportive!
Lira versus Yen did not go quite the way I had expected for November, mainly due to suprise US elections outcome. As it was not a fundamental reason for TRY or JPY, the general reaction just occured later - during the current week. 7th and 8th of december were when both lines I sketched previous month (resistance and downtrend) were succefully broken. I believed more and more that it had to happen as the situation evolved. There were no real fundamentally bad news from Turkey, except the President being against Central Bank's decisions. Finally, the negative terrorism and coup-like streak of news from Turkey seem to have ceased for a while, or even for a longer time.
We had Current Account deficit tightening to -1.68B (11 Nov), Budget Balance ameliorating to -0.1B (15 Nov, from -16.9B), most of rates in Turkey hiked on 24 Nov together with steady Manufacturing Confidence (103.7 24 Nov) and Capacity Utilization (staying 76.4% 24 Nov). On 29 Nov we have seen foreign arrivals decline stopped a little (-25.8% from -32.84%) signalling maybe a start of reversal of tourism stagnation. Trade balance also improved (-4.16B from -4.36B, 30 Nov), exports rose to …
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ak10 avatar
ak10 10 Dec.

Useful knowledge for trading.

Beto avatar
Beto 13 Dec.

Very technical and fundamental bias, really good job.
Only I think you could put at the end a very short conclusion about your theory to make it easy to all that people how do not like more even the technical analysis.
Best regards.

arjaq avatar
arjaq 13 Dec.

Beto  , what exactly do you mean? TRYJPY is not a very technical (still technicals do work here to a certain extent) pair in general, it moves basically driven by fundamentals or risk sentiment. What should a conclusion consist of here?

VictoriaVika avatar

Good luck in article contest, nice job.

k_morocco avatar
k_morocco 16 Dec.

great analysis , liked your fundamental point of view

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