On the morning of September sixth, Swiss National Bank (SNB) announced a minimal exchange rate of 1.20 for the pair EUR/CHF. This was expected, but rather unusual event in the forex market. Just after 08:00 GMT from the SNB announced that they will devote the necessary resources to support the franc at a level of at least 1.20 against the euro. The big overvaluation of the Swiss franc now poses a threat to the Swiss economy and carries a risk of deflationary spiral development. Even at a rate of 1.20, which is 8% above the today morning rate, the swiss frank is still overvalued, according to SNB and the devaluation should continue further. The SNB announced that there is consensus for buying unlimited quantities of foreign currencies (i.e. euro) if it is necessary to support this exchange rate.     The movement of about one thousand pips in only 25 minutes is such a rare event, that it is practically impossible. It could be indicated as a very unusual black swan. This is one of the many cases showing that the statistical science fail to predict the probability of such a big economic event, because they are out of the range of the normal probabilities. This wa…
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