Economic basis
As Central Banks slowly start to play on the piano of interest rates, interest rate differentials in different currencies become, again, attractive for carry traders.
A carry trade in its basic structure involves a credit in low yielding currency and the investment of this credit amount in a high yielding currency.
A naïve carry trade simply follows the rate differentials. A more sophisticated carry trade looks for reason and shelter. For example a special country has a well-defined exchange-rate-policy, meaning, that the exchange-rate for its domestic money vis a vis another country or a set (basket) of countries shall deviate only xy basispoints from a defined target rate.
For achieving such a goal Centralbanks apply interest rate policy. Historical examples are the European Currency Unit (the predecessor of the EURO) or the long-term peg of the Swedish Krona to a basket of currencies.
A current example are the efforts by the Swiss Centralbank trying to prevent further appreciations of the Swiss Frank, by dictating even negative interest rates.
The trade
Foreign Exchange contracts are a simple way to effect such an “Interest Rate Arbitrage”. Instead of exch…
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