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Analyse Sur La Livre Sterling Contre Le Dollar Américain

Yonggi7 Posted 14 Jan. in #Dollar #Analyse #Sterling #Livre #Américain

15/30

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En face du Dollar américain, la Livre Sterling se prépare à un renforcement vers le niveau de 1,3800 ...

Des rumeurs sur la Livre Sterling nous fait penser qu'une prochaine tendance haussière se vera au travers des actions de ces prix.

Devons-nous croire à ces annonces, ou devons nous simplement les ignorer?

C'est la question de plusieurs traders qui s'intéresse à la devise GBP/USD lorsqu'ils cherchent à connaitre quelle analyse fondamentale conviendrait le mieux...

Au cours de la fin de l'année 2017, et au début de l'année 2018, la monnaie britannique, ainsi que la monnaie européenne, ont eu un honneur de BULLISH sur l'ensemble du marché des devises FOREX...

En effet, ces derniers temps, il existe un contexte de marché et quelques nouvelles intéressantes sur la livre sterling.
[list][/list]…

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How to Profit from the Fed Rate Hike Cycle

Jignesh Posted 18 Apr. in #Dollar #Federal Reserve #Fundamentals #Monetary Policy #Fomc #Fundamental Analysis #Fomc Meeting #Federal Funds Rate #Fomc Decision

35/65

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We usually don't comment on other central bank decisions, but one has to say that the decision the Fed took was appropriate given the position of the U.S. economy... and it was perfectly communicated and flawlessly executed.

-ECB President Mario Draghi, January 2016
A technical trader once told me that fundamentals don't drive the markets and using it does not give traders an edge. He further stated that when the price moves in the opposite direction of what's expected, a fundamental analyst will say "it was priced in".
The fact remains that many, if not most new traders, will solely rely on technicals. Similar to all aspects of trading, fundamental analysis can be difficult to comprehend. As a result, it is also difficult to profit from it without a sound understanding.
While there are several aspects of fundamental analysis, the Federal Reserve made one thing very clear at their March meeting. I hope to convey this and how to profit during the Fed tightening cycle. This one piece of information should allow traders to profit that normally do not follow fundamental developments.
To provide a backdrop to the above quote from ECB's Draghi, it was made during a time where he had gre…

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AUD/CAD, AUD/CHF, AUD/NZD

foreignexchange Posted 23 Jan. in #AUD #Dollar #Australian

33/68

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CHART SCALE: Weekly
INDICATORS: Parabolic Sar, Money Flow Index, Linear Regression Slope
SUPPORT LEVELS : 1.0777
RESISTANCE LEVELS: 0.96810
PAIR ANALYSIS :
The AUD/CAD is in slightly bullish tendency after a rebounce at the channel resistance as indicated in fig 1. The pair pattern suggests a possible pattern around the support line. The Linear Regression Slope around 0.003 can be analyzed as slightly bearish tendency.The MFI and the Parabolic Sar can suggest the validity of the figure pattern and the indecision of the market. The chart analysis suggest the possibility of a slightly bearish retracement around the support line. (Fig 2).
A bearish crossing at 0.9702 can validate a significant bearish domination. The analysis suggests the possibility to open a sell position at 1.03687 with TP at 1.002 and SL at 1.077 .
FIGURE 1 shows the trendlines
CHART SCALE: Weekly
INDICATORS: Parabolic Sar, Money Flow Index, Linear Regression Slope
RESISTANCE LEVELS: 0.8001
SUPPORT LEVELS : 0.73001
PAIR ANALYSIS :
The AUD/CHF currency pair pattern is in a slighty bullish trend within a channel but it could be possible that it can be dominated by a trendless zone considering the two keys level pri…

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Is Trump Threatens the Bond Market and the Dollar ?

FXNOAD Posted 15 Nov. in #USD #Dollar #Forex #Eurusd #Market #Fundamental Analysis #Bond #Trump

31/65

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Is Trump threatens the bond market and the dollar coin
Some think that Trump's election victory It will be the end of the rising dollar and there will be a drop in some financial markets, Indeed, This is what happened but only for a few minutes, For someone has a deeper look In Trump policy and Economic data he would stick with the purchase of a dollar coin and he will know that the effect of this news will only be momentary and will not continue for a long time for the following reasons :
First Trump's financial policy aimed to reduce taxes and increase spending, It means an expansionary fiscal policy, It causes more support for economic growth but on the other hand increase the budget deficit and what happens when you increase the budget deficit? The government accepted the borrowing in the form of a bond issue, That is why we have seen a rise in the yield on US bond futures for ten years, and futures for two years It is now near the highest level on this year, When the yield on bonds rise the US dollar also rises
Investors also accept to buy bonds when there is a state of risk aversion and the search for safe havens and With the direction of Fed to raise interest rates It is e…

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El Famoso " London Fix "

independeceday32 Posted 2 Apr. in #Trading #Dollar #Forex #Euro #Currencies #Trades #London Fix

2/51

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Para la mayoría de traders que empiezan en Forex y para algunos veteranos el "London Fix" es un gran desconocido , últimamente tras unas investigaciones de una posible colusion entre algunos de los principales bancos que operan en forex se ha hecho famoso, la mayoría de retail traders desconoce de que se trata o como funciona, por lo que en este articulo voy a intentar explicar que es,porque tiene tanta importancia y como afecta al trading en forex ,todos los traders tendríamos que conocer estos datos ,ya que puede afectar a nuestros resultados en el trading.El articulo se desarrolla en formato de Q&A para que muestre un formato mas abierto y de lugar a otras opiniones que espero que mostréis en los comentarios.
¿ QUE ES EL "LONDON FIX" ?
Es el tipo de cambio de referencia que se establece todos los días a las 4 pm de Londres para las 21 divisas principales, popularmente es conocido como la fijación de Londres pero su nombre real es WM/Reuters benchmark rates , este tipo de cambio de referencia es realizado por las empresas World Markets y Thomson Reuters, para ello durante una ventana de 5 minutos , 2 minutos 30 segundos antes y 2 minutos 30 segundos después de las 4pm de Londres…

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экономические циклы. повысит ли фрс ставку? паритет евро.

Daniil_Stolnikov Posted 9 Nov. in #Dollar #Euro #Trader Contest #Cot #Dollar Index #EUR/USD #Interest Rate

38/66

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Как известно в экономике любого государства существуют экономические циклы — чередующиеся периоды рецессии и экономического подъема. То же самое можно сказать и о валюте отдельно взятой страны. Рассмотрим график пары евродоллар. Для более полного понимания все картины вернемся в прошлое и посмотрим на график пары с 79-го года:
На данном графике мы можем воочию увидеть причину текущих ожиданий рынка, а именно паритет евро с долларом США. Сегодня мы вплотную подошли к нижней границе канала к району 1.0 или к тому самому паритету. Иными словами вот вот наступит тот славный момент, когда пара евродоллар развернется и устремится далеко далеко вверх, примерно в район 1.8. И судя по всему это курс на ближайшие годы — лет 6-7.
Так когда же произойдет этот славный момент? И даст ли рынок исполниться мечте миллионов — паритету обоих валют? Для более конкретного ответа на данный вопрос обратимся к отчетам CFTC. Последние доступные на сегодня данные говорят нам следующее:
Итак из приведенных изображений мы видим, что по основным валютным парам доллар продан. Также продан он и непосредственно по индексу доллара.
Но что же происходит в мире и на рынке? Еще пару месяцев назад ФРС и ЕЦБ поумерил…

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The Greenback Rose against the Fed

MrLOSS Posted 2 Sep. in #USA #Dollar #Fed #Hike Rate

17/61

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Introduction

The euro is not going to give up, drawing strength in China, where the fall of the August business activity in the manufacturing sector to its lowest level for the past three years has been another reason for the sales of local shares. Shanghai composite in early trading fell by 5% and a probable intervention of the People's Bank lackeys helped stock indexes closed the session at a modest 1.7%. China's disease is likely to be picked up on European and US stock markets, expectations of subsidence which has allowed the "bulls" on EUR / USD came close for the thirteenth figure.

On the market are lively discussions about the status of the euro. Proponents of the theory of a reliable currency believe that investors for some time forgotten that regional monetary unit previously performs these functions. Now everything is back to normal. Indeed, the correlation between the EUR and JPY rose to its peak in 2007 amid a global rout in equity markets.
Rally of EUR / USD has been closely connected with the publication of data on business activity in Germany and in the United States, information on the reduction of unemployment in the euro area to the level of 10.9%, the minimum fo…

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Interpretation of the December Fomc Statement & Press Conference

Jignesh Posted 18 Dec. in #USD #Dollar #Yellen #Fundamentals #Fomc #Interest Rates #Fed #Forward Guidance #Labor Market

9/33

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INTRODUCTION
The FOMC Statement is a highly anticipated event, more so as the FED is nearing it's planned interest rate hike.
A lot of care is put into the exact wording used in the statement, so as not to cause excess volatility in the markets, or misleading information.
Trading this risk event is like playing a game of Poker with the FED, carefully analyzing every word trying to interpret the underlying message. Essentially trying to figure out the FED's cards, to determine when to go all in!
(figuratively speaking).
SUMMARY

This article is my personal interpretation of the FED Statement of Dec. Therefore the view here may differ from other publications on the web, as the statement does carry a larger degree of vagueness.
The objective of the article, is to provide trader's that are new to the fundamental side of trading, a view of how a press conference can be interpreted, and subsequently trade the obtained information.

Figure 1 - USDJPY 5M - Showing a bullish effect prior to, during and post FOMC
To sum up the statement in one sentence, the FED see's the economy continue to improve. Everything remains inline to raise interest rates as planned. This will likely occur mid

…

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Will Continue Being Strong Euro in 2014

independeceday32 Posted 24 Feb. in #Technical analysis #2014 #Dollar #Euro #Forecast #Fundamental Analysis #Strong #European Economy #U.s. Economy

15/29

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From October 2013 the contribution of the EUR-USD has entered in a range between levels 1,3850 and 1,3470, Although during the month of November, after strong data from the U.S. economy, there was a downward extension of range to 1,3300,the price soon reversed this fall and I send it back to the range.
During thefirst two months of this year the couple has kept the range and although in January seemed that the quote was southbound, weak data from the U.S. economy in January and February, will be only the weather?, have given strength to the euro to climb back to the top of the range.
To reallyknow if the euro is really strong , let's go to the kitchen and review the ingredients in this recipe.
FIRST INGREDIENT: FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS.

˃THE EUROPEAN ECONOMY is showing signs of improvement, and it seems that the recovery is stable, although risks of Europe appear to have been reduced, remains asymmetries with France and Germany to improve its economic data, but with problems on the periphery where the economy growth is still negative, especially in the case of Greece, where youth unemployment is very high (61%) also still having problems in Cyprus, Spain,Italy or Portugal.A bad unempl…

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The Usa Recovery against the Snb's Threshold in 2013

Arenoosh Posted 15 Mar. in #Dollar #Europe #Fibonacci #Fed #Elliot Wave #USD/CHF #Snb #Macroeconomic #Dow Theory

19/40

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In their “Monetary policy assessment of 14 March 2013”, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) decided to leave the exchange rate of CHF 1.20 per euro unchanged. The SNB said that “the minimum exchange rate is an important instrument in avoiding an undesirable tightening of monetary conditions. The SNB will therefore enforce this minimum rate with the utmost determination and, if necessary, is prepared to buy foreign currency in unlimited quantities for this purpose.” Last summer the SNB was a key mover of the global forex market. It was known to be buying tens of billions of euros each month, hoping to keep the franc weak to protect its exporters in the face of inflows from spooked overseas investors at the height of the eurozone crisis in May. Rumors abounded among forex investors that the SNB was buying Swedish krona and the Australian dollar. Bankers said there had been days when the SNB was the biggest single buyer of Australian debt. Figures released by the SNB later in the year confirmed the rumors; the proportion of “other” currencies on its balance sheet – the Australian dollar, Swedish krona, Danish krone, Singapore dollar and Korean won – rose. The IMF is considering switching CA…

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Fiscal Cliff - what the Fuzz Is Happening?

GicaEric Posted 24 Dec. in #Dollar #Fundamental #Us #Obama

21/43

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Fiscal Cliff - what the Fuzz is Happening?Hi everybody, I hope you're all OK. I know I promised that we're going to continue with the series of Candlestick Patterns, but coming to the end of 2012, thank God nothing Apocalyptic happened yet, we are due to another very important date. And that date is midnight 31st of December, 2012. This is the night where everything could change regarding the US economy, or the World for that matter.The budgetary troubles and debates all over the world's countries never get agreed upon with ease. The problem is that there's always somebody with a "better" idea of how to solve one country's fiscal issues. In a general normal case, basically the governing administration comes with a budgetary proposal on how the money's going to get spent, what kind of investments the country is going to make, what figures in terms of GDP, cost borrowing, inflation adjustment etc. is the country going to see for the near future. Then you got the opposing parties that basically "never" agree. Understanding that the democratic system provides a field for such debates and controversies, which whether it is healthful or not, that's totally debatable and another realm of …

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Impact of the Elections in Forex

de123 Posted 7 Nov. in #Dollar #Elections #Carries

12/28

Ranking

We all know, that the US had the election on the 6th.11.2012, and that the volatility was well expected around these day. Let us get to the point: In theory, usually the currency strenghten prior to elections date. As we could see the Eur/usd bottomed around 1.20 in summer, then a retracement to 1.31 aprox. And today till 1.275 aprox. a day after election. Now the currency should weaken, since the whole world know who won, (or at least we expect the real results). Therefore there is no need that the currency should attract the voters any more. So from fundamental point of view the currency should weaken, and the reversal trend on the monthly charts (majors/usd, and major yen carries) should continue. It may well happen the opposite p.s. few hundred pips down, so tight stops are welcomed here. Is it really important who won? It is not so important who won, ok. on a longer time frame it should be, a sign that Obama won, should be less dollar bearish as it would be if Romney won. But the main thing is that the forex market should normalize stabilize etc, if we can call it like that. Please note: Trading elections is the hardest NEWS to trade, and to master it needs experiences, s…

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The U.s. Dollar Uptrend & Qe3 False

Tom Posted 17 Sep. in #Dollar #Euro #Eurusd #Dollar Index #Cycles #Elliott Wave Analysis #Elliott Waves #Qe3

21/35

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In my prevous article dedicated to the euro I wrote about the coming recession. I thought the 1.274 level would be forbidding, but the price went higher. So the short term scenario is changed, but mid an long term are steady. The Euro will fall to 1.15 before 2013. Optimism is beyond the limit. Theese weeks are the last bullish weeks of the June-September uptrend Markets were too optimistic before Bernanke's speech and QE3 anouncing. They became more optimistic after that. Weekly surveys show about 30% of bulls on the dollar index, I guess there are less than 10% of them on daily charts. Market optimists can't understand obvious things: Bernanke promised $40 billions per month, the issue is that hundred billions of debt piramids are crushing every month and 40 billions is like a drop in the ocean... The invisible hand of market is still beating them.Both euro and dollar index are charting the ending diagonal. My mistake was that I saw the diagonal on the dollar index, but didn't on the euro. I forecasted level 80+- for DX on July 13, but I didn't understood that 80 on the DX would be equal to 1.30+- on the Euro/Dollar. The ending diagonal makes the target 1.06 more reliable.The DX.…

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EUR/USD Global Downtrend. Elliott Wave and Cycles.

Tom Posted 3 Sep. in #Dollar #Euro #Eurusd #Cycles #Elliott Wave Analysis #Elliott Waves #Qe3

20/35

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The EUR/USD is the most popular and technically easy currency pair on Forex market. I recommend this pair every rookie trader. As to me the first thing newbie should do on market is choosing forecasting instruments.I started trading in 2005 (when I was only 15). In 2006 I discovered Elliott wave principle for myself, I learned it and made many useful and correct forecasts. For example when gold price was only $600-700 I advised my parents and relatives to buy several gold bars (50 and 100 grams). And they all took my advice. Now gold costs about 1650-1700 and according to my new forecast it gonna grow to $2000, $5000 and $15000 before 2018.My next forecasting instrument is a public opinion. I mean various surveys, bullish percent and sentiment indexes. It's not too easy to make a right short-term forecast without any sentiment index.Just look on this weekly euro surveys. Sentiment indexes are good oversold/overbought indicators, more correct and accurate than every mathematic indicators.And the third one is a cycle analysis. You could predict price levels using Elliott waves with sentiment indexes, for time forecasting you should use a cycle analysis.This article is dedicated to th…

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My Thoughs about Eurusd

adask Posted 18 May in #Dollar #Forex #Euro #Analysis #Fundamental #Eurusd #Technical

30/67

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Euro - dollar (eurusd) is
the most liquid pair in Forex market. So it means that a lot of
traders look at it an trade it. Many traders like this pair because a
number of players traiding this pair is very large, so it means that
technicals work very well. In this article I am writing what I think
could happen with this pair this and comming few weeks. I will use
most popular analysis tools – Fibonacci retracements, lows, highs,
few support/demand levels and channels. Also I will not forget
fundamentals, that are really important now.
Fundamentals
I start with fundamentals to
build a general view. Currently everyone forgot United States of
America problems – jobless, bad manufacturing numbers, quantitive
easing and so on. So we cannot forget, that US still have a lot of
problems. But these problems cannot be compared with the one's in
Europe. Biggest issue is debt of countries. We all know Greece. Debts
are dangerous not only to countries, but also for banks, that hold
these debts. That's why Germany wants to „save“ the Greece. Many
of Germany banks lended to Greece names. And now, when Europe Union
agreed of aid package for Greece in exchange with austerity politics,
Greece populis…

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