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Trader colleagues , in this article i'll steal a little of your time (no much, time is money! ) for a look on USDCAD and his seasonality.
Seasonality?! Don't forget that men do always same things, and currency too , i hope , but stop talking and go on. (sorry for my english , i know...)
First chart , USDCAD daily from 01 April - today
Surely setup of this cross is bull , in medio-long term , but we try to forecast a possible trend in the next weeks, start from this period but back in time! in these last seven years.
Second chart, USDCAD average 7 years 2009-2015 , 01 April - 31 August
It sounds familiar ?! This trend feature USDCAD from seven years in the same period , 1 April to 31 August. You not belive me?
Ok, i show you the next chart..
Third chart , USDCAD WEEKLY 2009-2016
How you can see from that, the seasonality is clear, not same al 100% but similar almost enough.
My idea "We be in a movement like "Cup and handle" in long term , and now we are on base of possible handle!"
This signal may be the start of a new trend long!
Of course , colleagues , the seasonality not is a cristal ball! But i believe that we should spent few minutes and think on "possibility " to risk little…
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TRAD3R avatar
TRAD3R 16 June

USDCAD 130,27 !!!! :P

Natalia_Kisenko avatar

well done!

brilliant avatar
brilliant 17 June

nice observations , good luck

Durden avatar
Durden 30 June

Probably you can find some support with the Hidden Markov models.
The cycles could be studied analitically with that models.
Thanks for the article and good trading

TRAD3R avatar
TRAD3R 30 June

Thanks u Durden , "Hidden Markov models" , thank you for the tip :)

orto leave comments
What is the Number One Mistake I Did During Last Week Trades Daily analysis summary sheet My daily analysis starts with looking the charts and drawing major support and resistance lines, Fibonacci, few indicators including moving average, stochastic and linear regression. I do like to check the technical that I see with Daily Technical Analyses that publicly given on major websites. I found that just merely looking the technical does not help but working with them and picking them and comparing it with previous and next day technical points and drawing conclusion out of it is crucial. Just same as normal business requires a labor, forex requires same even more. I try to look the majors, GOLD and Indexes and its moves. I do also look the news during Asian, European and North American sessions. Even checking all this still makes mistakes. One of recent mistake, I did was just merely believed the news around EURO, which were reporting that Euro face pressure, Spain problems, UK weak industrial outputs etc. I did not know or consider that all these news were already had been taken account by big institutions and priced and when news came it had only discounting effects. In result, my…
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doctortyby avatar
doctortyby 18 Oct.

You are improving your writing style from the previous articles. I like the fact that you have put charts to better illustrate your ratios. What I strongly believe you could improve is the format of the text because right now it is kind of dificult to read. Maybe split the paragraphs into pieces.Keep writing keep improving

SpecialFX avatar
SpecialFX 26 Oct.

In order for something to be statistically valid, you need to have a high number of samples, hundreds at least. 20 trades is not enough to determine if cutting loses short is good or not, you cannot make any assumption based on so little data :) By the way, the idea of cutting loses short also assumes you are letting your winners run until the end of the trend, which means no fixed take profit orders, use trailing stops instead. Otherwise what you are doing is cutting your loses AND your winners short, so the strategy may not work as it should :)

doctortyby avatar
doctortyby 30 Oct.

I agree with Special Fx. Efficient Backtesting needs at least 300 Entries and signals to be profitable on the long term in different market conditions.

limitless avatar
limitless 31 Oct.

good luck congratulation

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