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7/58
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Introduction
In this article series I will go trough some of what in my opionion are the main factors to be considered in trading, based on my own personal views and experiences, and I will do in a kind of self - introspective way,so please, don't get stressed if for some reasons you find your self in opposite opinions.
Analysis
What are we talking about when we speak of analysis? Some years ago when I started trading, analysis meant this:
What do you see in this chart above? I tell you: it is a compression of data showing market movements during a certain period of time. In this case, every 4 hours, the program will draw the so called "candle" to give us a visual representation, but if we would be able to zoom enough out a tick chart, we would see exactly the same moves. I say this because, I suspect this concept is not really clear to many people: what you see is data compression! Candles are those things we can light up on a romantic dinner with our partners.
There is a level where is more convenient to buy, and there is a level where is more convenient to sell (or not to buy), but how do we determine that level? Is it really so c…
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Uladzimir avatar
Uladzimir 11 Oct.

хорошая работа

klizthiac avatar
klizthiac 14 Oct.

very good article

Ruteale avatar
Ruteale 16 Oct.

Good!

sonjatrader avatar

well done!!

Forex_champion avatar

good

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3/40
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A Simple Way to Scalp Forex Market

I’m not a guru ,I’m not an experienced trader .I have some knowledge ,but I’m still learning . In last 2
years I bought many “”strategies”” or “”systems”” .No work .The sellers claim to be 80 even 95 % winner ,their strategies .
So I decided to build my own Scalping Method . But , because I have daily job , I need one with 2 options:
1.Buy or Sell at Market Order(when I’m in front of my computer) ;
2.Set and forget .
First step is to see which pair have good volatility that day and the hours with best volatility .
If the price of Forex moves up and down rapidly over short time periods, it has high volatility ,breakout followed by trend . If the price
almost never changes, it has low volatility ,sideway or contraction .
For volatility we have many sites which offer graphic charts on hourly day volatility and for weekday .
Look at these picture :



Picture nr.1 is from 06:00 AM Picture nr.2 is from 23:00
(yellow bar is 06:00 -GMT) (yellow bar is 23:00_GMT)

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Mirela avatar
Mirela 23 Mar.

Can you post a few days example with Entry,Buy,Sell Order?

Relu21 avatar
Relu21 23 Mar.

If we have news with high impact,I will post every day from Monday to Friday.Thank you Mirela.

Mirela avatar
Mirela 23 Mar.

Ok, wait posts !!

Schaolin avatar
Schaolin 29 Mar.

good job

Faster avatar
Faster 4 Apr.

intersting nd informative

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23/43
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On the back of a more pessimistic outlook for the Euro zone economy by the European Central Bank (ECB), the Euro is set to lose ground against the US Dollar and the Aussie Dollar in the weeks ahead. Supporting this forecast are the strong bearish technical signals on the larger time frames of these pairs that point to the start of major downtrends, as investors and traders gradually move away from the single currency. With 2012 expected to end with the Euro zone in recession, the ECB decided to keep its benchmark interest rate at 0,75%, citing a lower than expected growth forecast for 2013 and increased downside risks to economic activity and inflation. The Governing Council of the ECB pointed to ¨uncertainties about the resolution of sovereign debt and governance issues in the euro area, geopolitical issues and fiscal policy decisions in the United States, possibly dampening sentiment for longer than currently assumed and delaying further the recovery of private investment, employment and consumption.¨ Indeed, data released earlier in the week supported this assessment, as retail sales for the Euro zone fell sharply in October by 1.2% - the largest cut back in this category of…
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DaddyPapi avatar
DaddyPapi 10 Dec.

Yeah, thats a tricky one. Given the impact of the US economy on the rest of the world, I think a resolution would be dollar negative. Even though it is going to be directly beneficial to the US, it wont be that USD positive until broader economic data in the US improves.

LinnuxFX avatar
LinnuxFX 10 Dec.

Nice article, and great analysis, good luck...

SpecialFX avatar
SpecialFX 11 Dec.

So many people keep saying for quite a long time that the euro must go down, and so far it either does not move or actually goes up :) Unemployment, austerity, low growth, all that has been going on for a couple of years now, and everything is already priced in. For the euro to go significantly down we need something new (like Greece being kicked out of euroland, for example), because without fresh bad news (that are not already priced in) I see no reason for the euro to decline significantly. EUR/USD is back above 1.3 even with all the latest data, the market is telling us something... ;)

DaddyPapi avatar
DaddyPapi 11 Dec.

Depends on your definition of a decline..100 pips, 300 pips, 1000, pips..and over what time period...since mid 2011 to its current price, it is down by 2000 pips..having gone down by as much as 3000 pips in July this year.. so technically speaking over the long term, it is already declining. Short-term, however, it is moving sideways in waves of 200-300 pips, rising and declining. My definition of a decline in this forecast is 300-pips from that 1.3000,.beyond that, who knows.

SpecialFX avatar
SpecialFX 11 Dec.

Yes, but since July it is up 1000 pips, when most people were predicting the euro to collapse due to Spain (eventually reaching parity with the USD), and since then things just got worse in Spain and the euro went significantly up. By decline I mean going below 1.2, because thats what I keep seeing in those doomsday scenarios. 300 pips to me is not a significant decline, but then again I trade long term, so 300 pips is not that much really and anything can cause it. My definition of decline would require something special, and I wont even mention those predictions of 1.05, parity, etc... :)

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10/43
Ranking
During the final week of trading in November on the Forex market, the Euro rallied on the back of the agreement that was finally reached for Greece early in the week. The appreciation in the currency was seen on the EURO JPY, EURO USD and the EURO AUD which reversed their respective short-term downtrends that had defined them due to the deteriorating economic outlook for the Eurozone. As I review these movements, I will use price action chart patterns to describe the technical aspects of these rallies and also point out the profitable opportunities that arose for aggressive short-term traders. EURO JPY Having formed and then hovered within an Ascending Pennant on the Daily Chart between September and November of this year, the pair finally broke out bullish to break the Resistance of 104.00 on November 20. This represented the continuation of the 700-Pip rally that started at the Support area of 100.90 on November 14 before closing the week at the current price of 107.00. DAILY CHART Before ending the week at this 107.00 mark, the pair had pulled back at that price before turning sharply to break the Counter Trend Line (CTL) to signal the resumption of the bullish breakout…
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Likerty avatar
Likerty 4 Dec.

SO where is the next 100 pip E/U trade, hmm?:)

DaddyPapi avatar

Looks like its gonna be on the downside..pulling back strongly at resistance area 1.3100..next week could have a setup for another 100 going bearish.

Nicco avatar
Nicco 19 Dec.

Well, Daddy, you missed analizing EUR/USD all things regarding USD!!! Other things excepting technical ones! At any analysis the USD forecast was declining, and, as an effect, EUR/USD must increase...

Nicco avatar
Nicco 19 Dec.

Of course, I'm your fan, an amateur...

DaddyPapi avatar
DaddyPapi 19 Dec.

Not sure I understand comment..it rallied this instance, but yes, analysis was purely technical without fundamentals. criticisms welcome..I aint perfect

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10/48
Ranking
During the
recently concluded Dukascopy trading contest in May this year, I traded my
favourite pairs using the chart pattern strategies that I have found to be more
than sufficient for trading success in both demo and live trading. This
strategy landed me the 23rd spot in the competition with only 16
trades for an accuracy rate of 63%.
 
As I review each
of the profitable trades during the month, I will explain the rationale behind
them using chart patterns such as Consolidations, Trend Lines and Counter Trend
Lines. These are the tools that I use to analyze the market without the use of
indicators or fundamental announcements since once accurately used, these tools
by themselves can correctly provide the signals for market direction, entry and
exit for traders.KEY CHART PATTERNS
& SIGNALS
 
Breaks of
Consolidation
 
Once Consolidation patterns are broken with a strong
closed candle, trades can be made in the direction of the breakout especially
if it coincides with the major trend. Naturally, false breakouts are also
possible.
 
Breakout Equivalent
 
Whenever Consolidation Patterns are broken, they
usually end at the distance that is equal to the width of the pattern broken.
This…
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DaddyPapi avatar

I am not in a position to know how all these traders will do this month versus last month..I dont their strategies nor how the market will play out this month.

scramble avatar
scramble 5 June

you did an excellent trading! well done in sharing it, people must understand how to follow the trend and what to look at. also me sometimes i try to fight the trend!
wish you best of profits in your trading :-)

LinnuxFX avatar
LinnuxFX 6 June

Congratulations for yours' analysis and winning trades, good luck for this contest too...

MrSami avatar
MrSami 6 June

nice article, good luck.

doctortyby avatar
doctortyby 27 June

You seem to be a good trader and I respect You. Congratulations for the great trading outcome.

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8/58
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Correlation
analysis is one of the most basic ways of establishing a relationship among two
or more variables in the areas of statistics and finance. By calculating the
degree of co-movement, the analyst can make use of this information without the
need to establish a directional cause and effect relationship. Such is the case
when it comes to the Forex market in which there are several currency pairs
that have strong correlations with each other. Once these correlations are correctly
identified, traders can optimize on their trading decisions in both the Forex
and other related markets for greater profits.
 
POSITIVE & NEGATIVE CORRELATIONS
 
Variables that
are positively correlated with each other move in the same direction over time,
while those that are negatively correlated move in opposite directions. For
positive correlations, the value of ´r´ when calculated will range from 0 to 1
with values closer to 1 indicating strong positive correlations. With negative
correlations, ´r´ will range from -1 to 0 with values closer to -1 pointing to
high negative correlation.  The closer
the values of ´r´ to 0, the less correlated the variables.  Some examples of correlated currencies in…
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ftnobre avatar
ftnobre 24 Feb.

I really enjoyed the article.

ritesh avatar
ritesh 26 Feb.

you and Rob Booker, both are a pro in trend lines. He uses close/open for trendlines, while you use highs/lows. +1

doctortyby avatar
doctortyby 26 Feb.

Currency correlations are of great interest for me.I also correlate Eur/Aud with Gbp/Aud,Eur/Jpy with Chf/Jpy,Aud/Usd with Gold,Usd/Cad with Oil,Nzd/Usd with Silver,Eur/Usd with S&P500.Keep it up my friend.

DaddyPapi avatar
DaddyPapi 26 Feb.

Thanks for the comments. Doctorby, those correlations are very useful as well especially the Euro Usd and the S&P.

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