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China’s second-quarter GDP soared at 6.7% slightly higher than the 6.6% growth rate analysts expected.
On the other hand, warnings over debt-fueled growth have become increasingly regular, which promptly caused S&P and Moody’s reaction, cutting the country’s sovereign credit outlook to negative in March:
  • China’s Credit Rating by Moody’s: Aa3; negative outlook; revised on Mar 02 2016;
  • China’s Credit Rating by S&P: AA-; negative outlook; revised on Mar 31 2016.
Bloomberg News [1] reported that current Chinese debt levels:
highlights concern among global investors that the ruling Communist Party will struggle to overhaul Asia’s
largest economy at a time when capital is flowing out of the country and debt levels have climbed to an
unprecedented 247 percent of gross domestic product - [regard chart 1 and infographic 1]

CHART 1 - China Total Debt as percentage of GDP (available on [1])

INFOGRAPHIC 1 - Credit in China (available on [7])

George Soros has already warned about China’s risks to the overall economic stability, meanwhile Chinese supporters argue that the country is different due to its sheer size and the ability of a one-party government to exert an unprecedented control over the economy.
There are evidences of st[/regard][/7][/1][/1]…
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marina2016 avatar
marina2016 22 Aug.

Согласна с многими, здесь рассуждающими)

Marenno avatar
Marenno 23 Aug.

good work!!!

Daniil_Stolnikov avatar

Интересная информация! Не следил последнее время за Китаем и не был в курсе про их проблемы! Что ж сейчас ситуация во всем мире не легкая, и Китай является одним из драйверов. Ситуация накаляется. Дело к выборам. Осенью ждём большущий ух!!! Кроме шуток

Sharpshooter avatar

Спасибо за информацию. Полезная статья. За Китаем следует посматривать. Он определить будущее, похоже...

Olkiss70 avatar
Olkiss70 31 Aug.


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US retail sales climbed 0.5% in May surpassing 0.3% forecasted by analysts. The Commerce Department said that retail sales gauged 2.5% compared with the same period a year ago.
Dukascopy Research Products [1] revived that:
US Federal Reserve was forced to keep the target range for the Federal Funds rate flat at 0.25-0.50% after its June
14-15 meeting (...) Domestic data has been uneven recently, with mild payrolls report considered to be the key
trigger for accepting the status-quo.

On the short-term basis, several overseas risks are still weighing on Fed’s decision to hold rates steady. Britain's vote to leave the EU, China’s lack of demand and miscalculated debt levels, Brazil’s political crisis and Japanese bond yields deepening further into negative territory.
The effect of a Fed interest rate hike could dampen the economic outlook, posing serious risks for equity markets.
Ray Dalio interviewed by Bloomberg Reporter Erik Schatzker [2] earlier this year said that the Fed’s next big move:
This point of view seemed me unappropriated at the time, however at the current standings, I give up my own bets on Fed’s rate hikes and curb myself to Mr. Dalio’s point [/2][/1]…
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BhimSha56166409 avatar

Great and Intresting

tangell avatar
tangell 28 July

good job

Sveetlana avatar
Sveetlana 29 July

useful informations

voldemar avatar
voldemar 29 July

nice article

FXRabbit avatar
FXRabbit 26 Aug.

Very interesting article!

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1. Introduction.
Les politiques de coopération entre la Chine et la Russie ont connu une accélération depuis les sanctions imposées à la Russie par l'union européenne et les États-Unis. L'ensemble de ces mesures visent à limiter l'exposition de ces deux pays face au dollar américain, plus encore, de s'affranchir à terme des plates-formes de négoce internationales actuelles et d'intéresser d'autres pays à cet ambitieux projet.
Nous passerons en revue quelques aspects de ces changements tels que le système de transactions monétaires internationales, les bourses d'échanges et les conséquences pour le dollar américain en tant que monnaie d'échange internationale.
Le réseau SWIFT est un système international, fondée en 1973 à Bruxelles et qui permet aux banques d'échanger des fonds par voie électronique. Ce système a considérablement réduit le coût des transactions et augmenté la rapidité des échanges par rapport au télex.
Faisant suite aux menaces de limiter l'accès de la Russie au système de transactions monétaires internationales, le gouvernement de Vladimir Poutine a mis en place son propre système d'échange entre banques russes. En parallèle, la Banque popula…
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Cristobal avatar
Cristobal 17 June

Very Good !!

SvetLena avatar
SvetLena 19 June


hrustiashka avatar

Very good article. Thank you!

Faster avatar
Faster 22 June

very good article

vikyllya avatar
vikyllya 23 June

very good

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An oil production freezing deal will be discussed on April 17th in Doha, Qatar.
Oil producing countries intend to freeze production without Iran’s support, who refuses to freeze or cut its output after years of sanctions.
The current global production is achieving record highs, prompting analysts to argue that an output freeze deal might not have a real impact in the oil market. International Energy Agency data’s (chart 1 & chart 2) points to an average production excess in 2015’s 4th quarter of 2 million barrels per day.
Eva Sjekelova [1] reporting Neil Atkinson, a senior executive at the International Energy Agency:
A freeze on production is perhaps rather meaningless. It's more some kind of gesture which perhaps is aimed
... to build confidence that there will be stability in oil prices.

Oil prices have been rebounding lately from January’s lows, relying almost on production freezing intentions. A dovish Fed, a weaker dollar and tiny recovery signals from China have boosted the process. Myra P. Saefong and Jenny W. Hsu [2] on China's oil consumption:
In February, China’s crude imports rose nearly 25% on-year to 31.8 million metric tons, equivalent to roughly 8
million barrels a day
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fx_lmcap avatar
fx_lmcap 18 Apr.


Mariia avatar
Mariia 21 Apr.

Interesting information

wisdom_consultant avatar

well written!

rajib217 avatar
rajib217 23 Apr.

Nice explanation

fxsurprise8 avatar

oil looks a bit high here

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The recent fall in oil prices is causing a downturn in stock markets all over the world.
Oil companies facing negative balance sheets are being pushed into labour force cuts and to delay future investments.
Times are also though for US shale oil producers. They have once deposited hopes that Saudi Arabia could bring some balance to the market. After the latest “freezing” negotiation developments, their last hopes might have completely vanished. Reporting Ellen R. Wald, [1] Modern Trader Magazine columnist:
Saudi Arabia can produce a barrel of oil at a cost of about $2. Even the best shale producers cannot produce a
barrel of oil for less than $50 a barrel. (...)

OPEC is not coming to bail out the shale oil producers. (...)

Saudi Arabia does not feel their pain (...) [it] may even welcome these minor inconveniences (...) [moving national]
economy towards some diversification.

Times are tough for shale producers and bankruptcies and asset sales are increasing. (...) Any relief producers
thought would come (...)
has not materialized.

OPEC member Saudi Arabia and non-OPEC Russia reached a principle of agreement on February 16th to freeze oil production at January's levels. Joining the Saudi[/moving][/it][/1]…
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wisdom_consultant avatar

very nice article! thank u!

EliasOmar avatar
EliasOmar 22 Mar.

well done bro ..

art_Alena avatar
art_Alena 24 Mar.

very good article!

angelina_may avatar

i like your pictures))

Olkiss70 avatar
Olkiss70 31 Mar.

good article!

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The beginning of this year was remarkable in a way that never before have stock exchanges around the world, commodities, and currencies like the NZD and AUD taken such a dive in the first weeks of January.
All of this happened due to the growing concerns on the Chinese economy and its impact on global economic growth, demand for commodities, and the transactions carried out with its largest trading partners.
In this article I will explain the interdependencies between China and the rest of the world, be it in commodities or currencies. The data is for the year 2014 as we still do not have official annual data for year 2015. There are a lot of numbers in this article, but this is the only way to communicate the importance of this country to the global economy.

Gross Domestic Product

It is the most populated country in the world with a population of 1.37 billion (further “B"), which makes up 19% of the total world population. Therefore, every one out of five people on this planet is Chinese!
China is the second largest economy in the world (the first one is USA) with a GDP for 2014 standing at USD 10.3 trillion (USD further as “$” and trillion further as “T"). You c…
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Airmike avatar
Airmike 29 Jan.

nice fundamental research

fx211pips avatar
fx211pips 29 Jan.

Airmike, thank you for your comment.

alias1980 avatar
alias1980 29 Jan.

very informative , thank you!

WallStreet6 avatar

nice overview of the Chinese economy

fx211pips avatar
fx211pips 29 Jan.

Alias1980, WallStreet6 thank you for these inspiring comments.

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En date du 30 novembre 2015, Le conseil d'administration du Fonds monétaire international (FMI) a approuvé l'entrée de la devise chinoise, le yuan, dans l'unité de compte des droits de tirages spéciaux (DTS).
Ce faisant, le FMI reconnaît pleinement la devise chinoise comme monnaie de référence mondiale. C'est pour Pékin une grande réussite politique en ces temps d’incertitude sur la croissance de son économie. Cette décision ne prendra effet qu'à l'automne 2016, le temps pour l'organisation d'inclure cette devise dans son unité de réserve. Le yuan rejoindra alors le dollar américain, l'Euro, le Yen et la Livre Sterling.
Nous analyserons dans cette article les raisons d'une telle décision et les perspectives pour la devise chinoise. Commençons avant tout par ventiler le nouveau panier de devises du FMI.
Les droits de tirages spéciaux.
Les droits de tirages spéciaux sont un instrument monétaire crée par le FMI en 1969 pour remplacer l'or dans les échanges internationaux. En effet et compte tenu de la croissance mondiale, l'or disponible se révéla insuffisant. Il est apparu alors nécessaire de créer un instrument pour augmenter la valeur de l'unité de …
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lelipuzik avatar
lelipuzik 20 Jan.


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Natalia_Kisenko avatar

good job!

Methodman avatar
Methodman 21 Jan.

Analyse pertinente! Bon travail.

miriam1313 avatar
miriam1313 21 Jan.

great article, will read and learn about yuan!

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The global financial markets are in quandary and China is at the centre of it all. Like the epicentre of a massive earthquake the shocks are being felt far and wide, and like the eye of a storm, it is gathering momentum by the day.
This article looks at how the slowdown in the Chinese economy is affecting the global economies and financial markets with particular interest on how the traders in the various Dukascopy contests can trade the events. The Chinese economy grew an annual 6.9% in the third quarter of 2015 the weakest since first quarter of 2009.

GDP growth

China is the world’s most populous country, and is fast becoming a global economic powerhouse with an estimated GDP of USD 10.3 trillion in 2015. China's economy is now the world's second largest economy by nominal GDP and the world's largest economy by purchasing power parity according to the IMF. Until 2015 China was the world's fastest-growing major economy, with growth rates averaging 10% over 30 years. However the Chinese economy has been slowing down in 2015. At this juncture we should not that the Chinese economy is not in recession but the rate of economic growth has reduced.
Recent third qu…
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Rita1808 avatar
Rita1808 26 Oct.

good job!

Yulia_Krasitskaya avatar

спасибо за интересную статью!

Airmike avatar
Airmike 28 Oct.

nice article

Margoshka avatar
Margoshka 28 Oct.


Stix avatar
Stix 29 Oct.

Thank you, llolor,... Very relevant and I enjoyed reading it. Best wishes ! :) :)

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Introduction:I intend to take a deep look into the long term outlook for the AUD, not just incorporating technical analysis, but looking into the fundamentals and key drivers from a multitude of asset classes to decide where we go from here. To start with, by long term I mean far more than a year, and am considering events going 3+ years into the future, and while I understand this may not teach you how to make 25 pips a day or something rather trivial like this, it will show you how I gain a bias to the long term direction of a currency. Even if one does not utilise some of these ideas to trade very long term, they can all be used intra-day and for swing trades so it is applicable to all in my opinion. Interest rate differentials:A key driver for any currency is the interest rate differential - this is why monetary policy statements from various central banks are so key and this is very much the case for the Aussie dollar. As we can see below, there is a strong relationship between the 2 Year yield spread, a broad look at the interest rate differential. Here we can split this chart into 4 distinct sections. The first being from 2000 through to 2003, this is where the Yield spread …
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apsu avatar
apsu 9 Sep.

interesting point of view! what program you used to make the graphics?

AdrianWS avatar
AdrianWS 9 Sep.

@apsu, I use Thomson Reuters Eikon

Likerty avatar
Likerty 10 Sep.

well, its in the technical correction mode now anyway.:) 5 year time scale doesnt help much in everyday trading decisions isnt it?:) ANyway - interesting article to read!

AdrianWS avatar
AdrianWS 14 Sep.

@likerty, depends what type of trader you are. For the scalper - of course they're not going to care. But a position trader for sure is going to care.

ilonalt avatar
ilonalt 27 Sep.

interesting article! good luck! I have some long trades of AUD and I'm still waiting to close :)

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Introduction:The unmissable Bank of Japan (BoJ) meeting on Thursday the 4th of April has put in place a huge "shock and awe" level of QE, they have promised to purchase Japanese Government Bonds (JGB), ETF's and REIT's in order to increase the monetary base and help raise inflation.A breakdown of what the BoJ is actually doing is listed below;BoJ to buy 7 Trillion Yen of JGB's per month, all maturities up to 40 year bonds. Thus extending the average maturity to 7 years from 3 currently.BoJ to purchase "low risk" ETF's at a pace of 1 Trillion yen per year and REIT's at 30 Billion yen per year.2 year time zone to achieve 2% CPI Y/Y target.The overall aim of these measures is to double the monetary base, and hopefully, they believe, because of this they will start to see inflation. The current CPI Y/Y currently stands at 0.7% and has been almost stagnant for the past 18-20 years.Japan CPI Y/Y. Thomson ReutersAs you can see, they are aiming to target 2% (the yellow line) in a relatively short time frame, even though there is a 2 year target, if there is no improvement in the next 6-9 months there will be politcal pressure mounting._______________________________________________________…
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alifari avatar
alifari 28 Apr.

Excellent Article +1

valentine avatar
valentine 29 Apr.

Finally i get the chance to read a truly in-detail article, not only crap "hmm x is going down, its good to sell". More articles like this please! Thanks!

AdrianWS avatar
AdrianWS 29 Apr.

cheers for the positive feedback guys :) not sure if I'll write these detailed articles much more, dukascopy don't seem to like them and they require a lot of effort, they seem to prefer trading strategies or coding, so depending on how this does I might write an article on potential housing bubble in singapore / new zealand as per request from a webinar but we'll see!

Thanks anyway.

xau avatar
xau 30 Apr.

Very professional i may say, hope to be at this level some day. All strategies dies at some point, but such analysis is everlasting. Thanks for your effort.

valentine avatar
valentine 30 Apr.

This article has to get in top 3, after dukascopy rating! I hope at last their rating will sort the actual quality of articles posted this month.

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Introduction:The Australian Dollar is perhaps one the most popular pairs for traders, its nature is fairly simple and provides good opportunities for scalpers and swing traders alike. Crucially in this world with no yield, AUD can pocket you ~3% a year, great for some investors.Because of this yield, the AUD is very prone to changes in risk sentiment and therefore on an intra-day basis is highly correlated to US and European Stock indices. However, the most alarming thing about this pair is the lack of activity in recent weeks, especially since the start of October where the average Rate of Change has been under 1% per day. This compared with the same time last year where there were times of +2% per day.Long Term:As shown here, AUDUSD is at a crucial checkpoint, as in the next few days to weeks the Aussie will breakout and set the trend for the next 6 months or so. While technically the trendlines are neutral there is a bearish divergence suggesting there is a greater chance of a downside move. However this is entirely subjective to the moves that will be see is US equities. More so a member of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has said this;RBA John Edwards - " The currency is m…
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AdrianWS avatar
AdrianWS 17 Dec.

Price action is still in consolidation, the levels mentioned above are getting even more crucial, furthermore on a side note AUD CoT positioning is extremely long which means a sharp fall in risk can cause some heavy long covering and stop tripping.

AdrianWS avatar
AdrianWS 26 Dec.

AUD broke down lower - but has stalled at 50% fib level and has held 200MA this is likely to be the case until Next year. So 1.043 seems like a decent target as that's a monthly pivot and as such could be a good way to end December.

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