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The British consumer confidence has suffered its biggest drop in more than 20 years.
Post referendum sentiment unveils doubts over how the British economy will behave as non-EU member.
A survey by market research group GfK revealed a deep fall in the confidence among consumers from -1 to -9, as shown in the Infographic (source:
The details of Britain’s exit are murky, at best. There are a lot of uncertainties over the period where the Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty will be triggered.
Unless these questions are answered and a clear path forward emerges, the pound outlook will remain posed for the downside.
There appears to be little in the way of technical support to stop the currency from breaching several support areas in the months ahead.
Property prices in the UK and in London specifically, have come under pressure in the run-up to the EU referendum, as well as following it.
Dukascopy Research products [1] revived that:

June was the worst month in seven years period for the Britain’s builders since construction PMI entered a
contraction territory, (...) slipping to 46.0 points, from 51.2 (...)
Mark Carney highlighted (...) [that the] central bank would have to provide more[/that]
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Sveetlana avatar
Sveetlana 29 July


voldemar avatar
voldemar 29 July

nice article

fxsurprise8 avatar

interesting views fella :)

Yulia10 avatar
Yulia10 31 July

good job

FXRabbit avatar
FXRabbit 26 Aug.

Very interesting article!

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What is Negative Interest Rate Policy?:

A negative interest rate policy is an unconventional monetary policy tool employed by Central Banks where the nominal interest rate is below zero hence the term negative. It is unconventional because instead of the depositors earning money for their deposits in Banks, the depositors are charged for their deposits in the banks. Negative interest rate do not directly impact small investors but can indirectly have effect from the spillover of banks having deposits at other big banks/central banks.
Why Negative Interest Rate Policy?

The policy of negative interest rate is employed when the central bank observes in its economy of the following :
  1. Low or no growth
  2. Deflation
  3. Hoard of money by people and business
Central Bank’s policy aim is to make people and businesses to spend and invest money instead of keeping money at the bank and to stop prices from falling, increase real production and output, and decrease of unemployment. Such loose and expansionary monetary policy is employed usually to deal with such stagnation in the economy.
When a Central Bank has set a negative interest rate, it means depositor will be charged for keeping their mone…
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zarina avatar
zarina 27 Feb.

You are waiting for the fall of the Euro ?

Nihad avatar
Nihad 27 Feb.

Good luck buddy

wisdom_consultant avatar

nice article

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Interest Rate is among the most important fundamental data that impacts the currency of a country. It's of vital importance for any trader to keep a watch on this important data for his or her trading activities. A change in Interest Rate viz. a hike or a cut could be a percursor to a long term bearish or bullish bias respectively on the currency.
Interest Rate is the also most important tool major Central Banks around the world like FED, ECB, BOJ, PBOC etc use to guide the economy and the overall markets to its desired goals. Interest Rates are set by Central Banks to majorly keep inflation within a limit and to promote or curb lending. For instance, if prices for essential items and inflation are ballooning in conjunction with better economic conditions, Central Banks will hike Interest Rate to curb money supply to control price rise and inflation.
How Rates are calculated? :
Board of Directors of Central Banks controls the monetary policy of its country. They set the short-term interests at which banks can borrow from one another. Central Banks gather various relevant economic indicators from its economy to decide on Interest Rates to keep as its is or to cut o…
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Natalia_Kisenko avatar

good job!

Jenny26 avatar
Jenny26 18 Feb.

nice article))

zarina avatar
zarina 19 Feb.

done a good article!

Olkiss70 avatar
Olkiss70 21 Feb.

useful work!

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In this article, GBP/USD will be analyzed both fundamentally and technically and as known nothing is impossible in Forex, so different scenarios will be drawn to express about the most probable scenarios with the GBP /USD.
What is affected the move of GBP/USD nowadays:
Fundamental Analysis:
GBP/USD is affected now by two different policies by both Bank of England (BOE) and United States Federal Reserve (FED) and also affected sometimes by UK internal issues like last Scotland independence and UK exit from European Union (EU), finally pound and other currencies is affected due to strong growth in US in the last months which make US$ to be favored.
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Natalia_Kisenko avatar

good analysis!

Kbelestro avatar
Kbelestro 16 Feb.


Olkiss70 avatar
Olkiss70 21 Feb.

useful information!

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ECB decided to leave rates unchanged in its last meeting in January. Reporting Fergal O'Brien [1],
ECB President Mario Draghi has said the Governing Council will review its stimulus in March amid signs that falling
oil prices will push the euro region’s inflation rate back to zero.

Euro unemployment rate decreased from 10.5% to 10.4% last December, bringing tiny signs of relief for ECB Governing Council. Unemployment rate dropped in Germany to 6.2%, the lowest level since 2013. In the opposite side Finland sees its unemployment rate jumping to 9.5%.
Reporting Chris Williamson [2], Chief Economist at Markit, January’s
Rates of growth continued to diverge markedly, (...) Italy’s growth rate looks to have slipped to just 0.3% and France,
once again the laggard, has returned to stagnation,

while Spain lead the gains with PMI signalling 0.75% growth rate.
Although some Euro zone economies are delivering a sustainable growth, other ones are still providing signs of concerns with steady growth, narrowing stagnation. Facing a mixed economic environment, markets will sharply watch ECB next meeting, holding for super (Mario) stimulus, levelling expectations into a supplementary purchase package.[/2][/1]…
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Nihad avatar
Nihad 24 Feb.

Super MARIO and what the YELLIN' is all about. Thx for this interesting outlook

fx_lmcap avatar
fx_lmcap 24 Feb.


Tasha_Mk avatar
Tasha_Mk 25 Feb.

good luck!!!

Melody avatar
Melody 25 Feb.

Nice report!

Govagent avatar
Govagent 25 Feb.

This is useful, thanks. saves me the effort of searching some information, great job ^_^

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In this article, GBP/USD will be analyzed both fundamentally and technically and as known nothing is impossible in Forex, so different scenarios will be drawn to express about the most probable scenarios with the GBP /USD.
What is affected the move of GBP/USD nowadays:
Fundamental Analysis:
GBP/USD is affected now by two different policies by both Bank of England (BOE) and United States Federal Reserve (FED) and also affected sometimes by UK internal issues like last Scotland independence vote which spread fears about UK unity, finally pound and other currencies is affected due to strong growth in US in the last months which make US$ to be favored.
  • Different policies by BOE and FED:

One year ago, BOE hinted about possible rate hike after improvement of employment and inflation which hit 2%, but after strong fall of inflation to below 0, BOE still not able to talk about possible rate hike before next midyear.
In different, US FED is ready to raise interest rate for the first time from years, FED delayed its first rate hike more than once in order to prevent broad US$ gains which may dampen US growth, this time rate hike is very near but if something horrible hit …
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Durden avatar
Durden 22 Sep.

Great article, well written and useful

A bearish opinion on Pound ; )

Airmike avatar
Airmike 23 Sep.

nice article

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The announcement
The Bank of England has decided to change it’s communication form and has squeezed in many releases into one announcement starting this month. The previous form of communicating was criticized for being inconsistent as information was divided into many releases across two weeks interval.
For the first time under the new order information was provided on the 6th of August. The Monetary Policy Committee vote took place as well as the minutes report, both on one day. The Monetary Policy Committee has voted against a rate hike with the votes divided 1 to 8, with 1 for and 8 against.
The consensus was at 2 to 9 with Ian McCafferty and Martin Weale voting for and possibly a third person as well. This outcome was disappointing for the market. The minutes have shown that there is a divide when it comes to the time of starting to cut down on the QE program. Additionally the inflation report was provided. The forecasts concerning inflation rate have been lowered for the rest of the year. The 2015 forecast has been lowered from 0.6% to 0.3%. It has also been mentioned that the downward pressures from low energy prices may persist until mid 2016. Howoever, by that time inflat…
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al_dcdemo 29 Aug.

Useful information, very well explained and written. Nice job!

WallStreet6 avatar


Olga18375 avatar
Olga18375 29 Aug.

Interesting post! Good job)

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Margoshka avatar
Margoshka 30 Aug.


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1.0 Introduction
Surely you have in your life watched at least one movie "Groundhog Day". Bill Murray finds himself in time loop.As same as him, I felt time loop whole week. I had feeling that GBP/USD trading setup plays out exactly as it did before. Price action, economic news, reactions were like in the past like Deja Vu effect. I started to watch charts from the past and in one moment I remembered. I saw similar setup in August 2013.
Figure 1: GBP/USD trading setup similar like as in the past
2.0 My trading setup before BoE Report
In August 2013., UK economy was in excellent shape. Like this year. All traders expected to see higher interest rate and in September 2013. everyone expected good news. A lot of traders hoped that the first week of August would bring new interest rate. As we can see on Figure 2, Bank of England didn't change interest rate and in one hour price went down more than 130 pips.
Figure 2: GBP/USD went down 130 pips after statement on August 2013.
GBP/USD very soon went higher on August 2013. I saw the same setup this Thursday in 2015. I wanted to sell GBP/USD because:
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raulafx avatar
raulafx 24 Aug.

Nice setup.

shekhasi avatar
shekhasi 26 Aug.

Forex is Deja Vu...

hossainis avatar
hossainis 26 Aug.

Excellent job.

khalidam avatar
khalidam 28 Aug.

Nice movie and article....My whole life is deja vu...

albertmakris avatar

Great work.

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I have decided to write a follow up to my previous article about GBP due to the fact that last week there was important news coming from the UK which gives insight into the upcoming monetary policy of the Bank of England.
The week in review
On the 14th of July we saw the release of the Consumer Price Index for June which disappointed as it retreated to 0.0% YoY and MoM from 0.1% growth in May. Although the reading was better than in April which saw a drop of -0.1% which was the lowest level in over 50 years, the retreat comes in as a hindrance to the plan of the BoE of embarking on a rate hike schedule. The core CPI, which measures price changes among energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, has slowed to0.8% from 0.9% in May.
These data releases gave a bearish perspective for the GBP. However, afterwards the governor of Bank of England MarkCarney said in his statement that the BoE expects inflation to pick up later this year when the effects of lower oil and food prices subside. Thus, the time for interest rate hikes, which are going to be gradual, is coming closer, however he did not specify when. He said, "the point at which interest rates may begin to rise is moving closer with the p…
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Milian avatar
Milian 28 July


pipx avatar
pipx 28 July

I was sure the cable would hit 1.6 and went long this month in the trader contest boy was I wrong :-) In August I believe it will. Lets wait and see

WallStreet6 avatar

Thanks:) Yes, I think it may continue to appreciate in August and maybe even hit the 1.60 level. Especially that today's GDP came on target. But later on I think it will go the other way:)

sarah_gio avatar
sarah_gio 29 July


Margoshka avatar
Margoshka 30 July

very interesting

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The Office for National Statistics produces two main measures of consumer price
inflation: the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) and the Retail Prices Index (RPI).
The RPI was introduced in 1947 and was made
official in 1956. The CPI was introduced in 1996 as the Harmonized Index of
Consumer Prices (HICP).
In May 1997, the new government handed control
over interest rates to the politically-independent Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee (MPC). In few
words, the committee is given the responsibility of adjusting interest rates in
order to meet the inflation target set by the Chancellor. (related article here)
In December 2003 the National Statistician
decided that the UK version of the HICP would be renamed the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) and the UK
inflation target would in future be based on the HICP, replacing the Retail Prices Index excluding mortgage
interest payments (RPIX).
The difference between the RPI(X) and the CPI
is a bit complex and out of the topic
of this article, where I will consider the CPI as the most important data,
since it is the BOE’s inflation target and also for length purposes.
Actually the CPI tracks th…
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scramble avatar
scramble 10 July

@jose: yes that's what i'm doing! since i have a huge lack in fundamental study, i will go deep and deep in all main aspects, showing main things after i understood them. this will certainly improve my perception in markets. prize or not ;-)

AdrianWS avatar
AdrianWS 11 July

Very nice article once again, keep up the great work :)

Ficlubi avatar
Ficlubi 18 July

Nice work! It helps me to understand a bit more the factor behind GBP. It will definitely helps my trading in gbp/jpy which so far need more improvement.

shaukat113 avatar
shaukat113 20 July

yet another good article from a trader how know the art of trading

projectx44 avatar

Great article!Forex Community is looking forward to reading your next article about trading...

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