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Guide on how to Recover from a Losing Streak

wmndave Posted 15 July in #Backtest #Guide On How To Recover From A Losing Streak #Devising A New Forex Strategy #Market Periodicity #Trading Forex In Summer #Dukascopy Visual Editor

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There is no happier moment in Forex than when every trade you make is profitable. The more profitable you are, the more confident you become and the more risks you take. It may even reach an extent that you may refer to yourself as a "forex god" at least i did for a time. But the day comes when the method that once worked lets you down on every instant or just a mistake not being up to date with the news. Nevertheless, a significant loss takes a lot from you; your money, your confidence, and above all your self-esteem. But after all these, here is away you may get back up;

Take time away from live trading
Take as much time as can and stay away from trading no matter how tempting the market maybe. It’s during this time you work on your self-control and gain the patience of knowing when to stay out of the trade. In a losing streak, at least two weeks away from trading will do you some good and your capital will be reserved.
Establish the reason as to why the strategy that once worked is failing
Sometimes traders lose just because of market periodicity. Take an instance of the summer vacation, most Wall Street traders are away thus the movement in the US session is so minimal. I pe…

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Automated Strategy and Historical Tester!

md1fk1 Posted 16 Apr. in #Visual Jforex #Backtest #Historical Tester #Best Practices

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What is it all About?
I have been trying to develop strategies in visual jforex – a visual platform to develop strategies. You can develop a strategy in less than 30 minutes but only after you play with the platform functionalities and know how to utilize the strategies. I will provide the basic functionalities (“Hello World” type) to get anyone started and then to see the output (back test) of the strategy. And off course some tips, tricks best practices which I found useful while working with strategies.
The main theme I will cover in this article is- How to back test your strategies so as to save time and not wait for real market if your strategy will work or not. Although there are functional document provided by Dukascopy but I missed to notice back test features anywhere in the documents. I will provide one simple strategy - if RSI above 70, sell or if RSI below 30 buy and then test this strategy on beautiful back testing (called Historical Tester) feature at jforex 3.0 trading platform.
Create Simple Strategy in Visual Jforex
The above very simple strategy (Just for illustration purpose) to get you started. It has simple logic:
[list][/list]…

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Is Ichimoku Strategy Still Profitable on Fx?

FXProsperHub Posted 13 Oct. in #Strategy #Article Contest #Ichimoku #Backtest #Free

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The name Ichimoku Kinko Hyo, which translates to "Equilibrium chart at a glance" aptly, describes the system.

Ichimoku Kinko Hyo has been used extensively in Asian trading rooms since Hosoda published his book and has been used successfully to trade currencies, commodities, futures, and stocks. Even with such wild popularity in Asia, Ichimoku did not make its appearance in the West until the 1990s and then, due to the utter lack of information in English on how to use it, it was mostly relegated to the category of another "exotic" indicator by the general trading public. Only now, in the early 21st century, are western traders really beginning to understand the power of this charting system. How it is to be used, as described below:

While Ichimoku utilizes five separate lines or components, they are not to be used individually, in isolation, when making trading decisions, but rather used together to form an integrated "whole" picture of price action that can be gleaned "at a glance". Thus, a simple look at an Ichimoku chart should provide the Ichimoku practitioner with a nearly immediate understanding of sentiment, momentum and strength of trend.

…

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The Simplest System on this Entire Website Made +8060 Pips

fxsurprise8 Posted 6 July in #GBP/USD #Article Contest #USD/JPY #AUD/USD #EUR/USD #System #Simple Strategy #Backtest #Trend Following #Simple Moving Average

4/47

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Traders spend a lot of time and energy trying to find the Perfect System. They argue that they will struck it rich once they find THE SYSTEM or if they’re discretionary, once they refine their trading enough. It has long been my assertion that risk control and diversification are much more important then the trading system itself.
I've argued that you don't have to be a genius trader in order to make money in the markets. In fact you can make money with remarkably simple trading systems. In this article we'll go over one system that has only 1 entry/exit trading rule. Yes you read that right, ONE. Here's a little preview of the results for this system.
Toward the end of the article I present a four-year backtest of this system on the four most liquid currency pairs EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD and AUD/USD. Here is the simplest system on this entire website.
Ten-Month Moving Average System
There is only 1 entry/exit rule. If price closes above the 10-month simple moving average, you buy. If price falls below the 10-month moving average, you sell. This is a Stop and Reverse System (SAR). Once your long gets the exit signal (price below 10 SMA) you close the position and initiate a n…

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This Simple Set-forget System Was Profitable in 2013/2014

fxsurprise8 Posted 10 Mar. in #EUR/JPY #Breakout #Profit #Simple #Backtest #Simple System

11/46

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According to my backtest, this strategy has been profitable for at least two years now. The strategy itself is very simple and literally takes less then 5 minutes PER WEEK to execute. If you have been trading for a while, you’ve probably encountered this system in one version or another on forex forums. It’s a simple weekly breakout strategy. After the markets open on Sunday at 23:00 CET (17:00 EST) we wait for the first 4 Hour candle to close. This happens at 3 AM CET on Monday, or 9 PM EST. Since I know I will get this question, if your broker has different 4 Hour settings, just use the hourly chart and draw a breakout box from 23:00 to 03:00.
For longs:
Place a Buy stop order at the high of the 4 Hour breakout box + 20 pips (+2 pips added for the spread)
For shorts:
Place a Sell stop order at the low of the 4 Hour candle - 20 pips
Rules
Here are the rules I used during the backtest. I tried to keep the rules simple and robust to avoid curve-fitting the data. The stoploss is placed at the opposite side of the of the breakout channel. If we are long we exit our trade when price breaks the low of the breakout channel and we simultaneously enter a short trade. But we only take …

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You'll Bankrupt, if you Believed Rsi's Oversold/overbought Signal

MobNaga Posted 8 Mar. in #Strategy #Eurusd #Breakout #Rsi #Divergence #Oversold #Backtest

2/46

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…

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Atr Maniacs

MobNaga Posted 8 Jan. in #GBP/USD #USD/JPY #USD/CAD #Indicators #EUR/USD #USD/CHF #Atr #Backtest

11/30

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Average true range (ATR) is a technical analysis volatility indicator originally developed by J. Welles Wilder, Jr. for commodities. The indicator does not provide an indication of price trend, simply the degree of price volatility

(by Wikipedia)

Introduction
In this article, we suggest that there is some correlation between the strength of price trend and Average True Range Indicators. We suspect that when that ATR goes down, then a price trend is likely to the end. And we describes that by 3 chapters in this paper.

How To Calculate ATR? Describes a more details of ATR Indicator which was used for this research.
Chart Pattern Analysis. This is an abstract explanation by standard chart patterns. Sections: Double Top, Triangle.
Back Test Analysis. This is a concrete explanation by the 759679 orders of 5 currency pairs back-test result(2004 - 2014). Sections: Trading rule, Filters, EUR/USD(152304). GBP/USD(149175), USD/JPY(152798), USD/CHF(150498), USD/CAD(154904), Summary.

Chapter 1: How To Calculate ATR?
At first, you needs to calculate a true range. The range of a day's trading is a high minus low price. And the true range extends it to yesterday's closing price if it was outsi…

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Could Sva-indicator Improve Your Average Gain Pips?

MobNaga Posted 14 Oct. in #Indicator #Backtest #Sva #Backdata #Decade-Backtest #Luckycharm #Overwork #Shortperiod-Longterm

13/19

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Introduction
Although it is a matter of taste, I can't feel the truth from some article based on very few past chart. I want to read an article which has something real for improve my trading. So, at first, I try to write a something like that. And I hope that many articles based on long term back test at short period chart will be show up on this contest...
It aside this article's research theme is Simple Volume Average Indicator. Many FX-websites says that "Look the volume". But is it true? Does volume indicator has a something meaning? I can't believe that without any back data. So I did check that with back-test in decade by myself.
Back Test Settings
At first, this chapter explains the strategy which was used for get the default back-test data.
Fig 1: Trading Rule Sample: BUY
Fig 2: Trading Rule Sample: SELL

Trading rules of the sample strategy for this research is “MinMaxBoxCounter”.
Chart is EUR/USD 5 minutes bar.
SL is 0.5% of the close price.
TP is 0.1% of the close price.
Filter is ALL_FLATS.

…

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Summary of Technical Analysis Product - Sva

MobNaga Posted 1 Oct. in #Indicator #Volume #Result #Backtest #Sva #Stap

14/19

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Hey SVA, I know what you did last decade…
Hi traders, do you check the Simple Volume Average-Indicator's value?
Just out of curiosity, I did researched performance of the SVA-indicator in the last 10 years. In this report, I will show you the truth of the SVA.
Back Test Settings.

Trading rules of the sample strategy for this research is “MinMaxBoxCounter”.
Chart is EUR/USD 5 minutes bar.
SL is 0.5% of the close price.
TP is 0.1% of the close price.
Filter is ALL_FLATS.
When close price was highest value of the last 26 bars it try to take a SHORT position. And, bar A is the bar which is 26 bar before. Bar B is the bar which has a second highest close price. Bar C is the bar which has a lowest close price. Bar D is the bar which has a highest close price.
When close price was lowest value of the last 26 bars it try to take a LONG position. And, bar A is the bar which is 26 bar before. Bar B is the bar which has a second lowest close price. Bar C is the bar which has a highest close price. Bar D is the bar which has lowest close price.

…

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Ema Crossover System Meets Visual Jforex

Daytrader21 Posted 1 July in #Dukascopy #Indicators #Programming #Visual Jforex #Backtest #Automated System #Ema Crossover

1/47

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Although I have an extensive programming background, for more than a few years I've stopped doing any programming and started pursuing other career job, so although I did forgot a lot of things I think I can handle the Visual JForex platform and describe you in details my simple EMA crossover system. The process of creating a strategy is what Dukascopy likes to see, so that was the main reason why I've decided to write this article.The main concept for this system is incredibly simple yet unbelievably effective and even if you don't have any programming knowledge, you should be fine by simple following the step-by-step guide from this article.Lets proceed first by giving a short summary of our strategy:Indicators we're going to use: 5EMA, 10EMA, RSI(10).Time Frame: Hourly (very important!).Pairs: Virtually any pair seems to work as this is strictly technical analysis. I recommend sticking to the main currencies and avoiding cross currencies.When to Enter a trade: Enter LONG when the 5EMA crosses the 10EMA from underneath and RSI must be above 50 to warrant entry. Enter SHORT when the 5EMA crosses the 10EMA from the top and RSI must be below 50 to warrant entry.When to Exit a trade:…

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Automating a Strategy - Pt3 - Adding Ingredients

scramble Posted 24 Apr. in #Strategy #Cci #Jforex #Java #Backtest #Visual Test #Equity Curve

30/46

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After the first implementations exposed in previous article, I am now to show more important aspect involved in automating a strategy and as promised, I will show the results I obtained after last arrangements. Collecting data When planning a strategy - will it be manual or automated - one key step is to collect all data obtained from tests, to quickly compare all results. So I invested some time to setup this simple table, using a program easily found for free on the web:Using such a simple table, helps to understand if and how an arrangement really affects/or not a strategy, relatively to previous results. And it also helps me to save a lot of words! Previous test I finished last article showing the results obtained from the very first tests. After some days of study on strategy behavior, I came to the conclusion to reduce the stop loss and the take profit trying to stabilize the profitability by getting more profitable trades. Results were slightly better than previous, so I decided to take this as starting point. Here below you see the equity curve, obtained directly from Jforex visual tester:The curve shows nothing new respectively to the raw data, but helps to visually …

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Trading with the Gmma Indicator and the Importance of Backtesting

SpecialFX Posted 19 Apr. in #Ema #Sma #System #Profitable #Backtest #Gmma #Multiple Moving Averages

1/46

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If there's one trading-related activity that I really enjoy doing is creating simple mechanical strategies that have a statistical edge, and can be successfully used by anyone, regardless of experience level in the world of trading in general, and Forex in particular. This month I took a look at a moving average indicator called the GMMA (Guppy Multiple Moving Average), and tried to come up with a profitable strategy, based on a few simples rules. ___________________________________________► Brief introduction into the GMMA indicator Even though this tool (developed by Australian trader Daryl Guppy) is not available in the Dukascopy jForex platform, you can easily apply it to your charts, because it simply consists of two groups of exponential moving averages (EMA). The faster averages are 3, 5, 8, 10, 12 and 15 EMA, while the slower ones are 30, 35, 40, 45, 50 and 60 EMA. The way you trade with the GMMA is not by the typical moving average crossover you would expect, but by analysing and interpreting the interaction between the two groups (for example, if the distance between them is compressing or expanding), and also among the different EMAs within each group. However, …

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Automating a Strategy - Pt2 – Backtest and Corrections

scramble Posted 18 Apr. in #Strategy #Jforex #Ema #15M #Backtest

26/46

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Premise In continuation of previous article Set main rules where I described main particularities of this simple strategy, I am now exposing main data obtained from some back-test and the arrangements I did in order to improve the stability and profitability. Back-Test First of all, I wish the strategy to produce as many losses as possible but in the same time, not to cause too much drawdown or (worst) completely destroy the account. Second, I need at least 100 executed positions so in this case a 3 month test should be enough. Third, once obtained the results I will have to understand how many times the strategy fails, why and when. Results Here are the 3 months back-test results:As we see, the strategy did not burn the account which is actually a good sign considering there is not even 1 single way to protect the downside risk (except the stop loss and default margin call). However, there is a large imbalance favoring the losing trades, indeed ending equity returned a value of 37.329$ meaning a 25% net loss caused by 97 losing trades. The strategy is based in a fast timeframe (15minutes) but considering the particularity of the rules, there are far more than expected losing…

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Automating a Strategy - Pt1 - Set Main Rules

scramble Posted 14 Apr. in #Jforex #Ema #Java #Backtest #Crossover #Ema Price #Ema Bounce

19/46

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PremiseI'm actually studying Java programming to improve my personal background. I started some time ago, but I had to postpone due to many difficulties and my knowledge is still at an elementary level, so in case you notice some mistakes on the code, please forgive me in advance. With this article I want to show how I automated a simple MA-based strategy. So I also take the opportunity to share it and to show my approach in detecting main factors and then all steps I considered while developing and testing the code.ToolsI decided to start coding the very first strategy I used because I have a good familiarity with all its good & bad aspects, and to use it in this article since gives a clear perception of the main aspects I'm presenting. However, the code can be modified to look for different MA periods in different timeframes and instruments.Instrument: EUR/USD;Timeframe: 15 Minutes;Indicators: EMA(14) & EMA(65);EssentialsThe strategy is simple and people could laugh thinking about it, while I really suggest to give it a deeper consideration.This is how the chart setup appears:The rule is clear: sell when green line (ema14) cross down the red one (ema65), buy when it cross up. But…

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Backtesting Traps

lkubanek Posted 11 June in #How To #Backtest #Backtest Problems

8/48

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This article is determined mainly
for beginning traders because experienced traders know traps of backtesting
process very well. But as I found, there is not very much information about it
in the literature or web pages about trading. Everywhere you can read that
backtesting is essential for your trading and that a lot of people are going to
underestimate it . But to be honest, I can’t remember a single good article where was written “How to backtest”
and of what to be aware during this process.
My thought on this theme starts when one friend
of mine asked me to show him how to trade. But trading isn’t something what
can be learn this way. You can’t
think that you can watch some
traders few times in action, learn his/her strategy and just copy it and be a good
trader. No no, not even exact science like mathematic can be learn properly so
easily. So I tell him that he should stop just reading about trading and start
doing it. Start with demo account, place some orders and start with backtesting
some basic thought (when you beginning you can start with whatever you want).
But beginners do not believe that trading can’t be learnt easily. So he
wanted me to show him my system.…

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