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15/44
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There is no happier moment in Forex than when every trade you make is profitable. The more profitable you are, the more confident you become and the more risks you take. It may even reach an extent that you may refer to yourself as a "forex god" at least i did for a time. But the day comes when the method that once worked lets you down on every instant or just a mistake not being up to date with the news. Nevertheless, a significant loss takes a lot from you; your money, your confidence, and above all your self-esteem. But after all these, here is away you may get back up;

Take time away from live trading

Take as much time as can and stay away from trading no matter how tempting the market maybe. It’s during this time you work on your self-control and gain the patience of knowing when to stay out of the trade. In a losing streak, at least two weeks away from trading will do you some good and your capital will be reserved.
Establish the reason as to why the strategy that once worked is failing
Sometimes traders lose just because of market periodicity. Take an instance of the summer vacation, most Wall Street traders are away thus the movement in the US session is so minimal. I pe…
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Achchuthan avatar

Good

Lady_in_Red avatar

nice article

Chaudhry77 avatar

nice work

mermaid avatar
mermaid 4 Aug.

Пойдёт.

Klaudia25 avatar

great

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30/65
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What is it all About?

I have been trying to develop strategies in visual jforex – a visual platform to develop strategies. You can develop a strategy in less than 30 minutes but only after you play with the platform functionalities and know how to utilize the strategies. I will provide the basic functionalities (“Hello World” type) to get anyone started and then to see the output (back test) of the strategy. And off course some tips, tricks best practices which I found useful while working with strategies.
The main theme I will cover in this article is- How to back test your strategies so as to save time and not wait for real market if your strategy will work or not. Although there are functional document provided by Dukascopy but I missed to notice back test features anywhere in the documents. I will provide one simple strategy - if RSI above 70, sell or if RSI below 30 buy and then test this strategy on beautiful back testing (called Historical Tester) feature at jforex 3.0 trading platform.
Create Simple Strategy in Visual Jforex
The above very simple strategy (Just for illustration purpose) to get you started. It has simple logic:
[list][/list]…
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AlinaMos avatar
AlinaMos 26 Apr.

good article

wind87 avatar
wind87 19 May

well done !

anashape avatar
anashape 19 May

i like the article!

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32/56
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The name Ichimoku Kinko Hyo, which translates to "Equilibrium chart at a glance" aptly, describes the system.

Ichimoku Kinko Hyo has been used extensively in Asian trading rooms since Hosoda published his book and has been used successfully to trade currencies, commodities, futures, and stocks. Even with such wild popularity in Asia, Ichimoku did not make its appearance in the West until the 1990s and then, due to the utter lack of information in English on how to use it, it was mostly relegated to the category of another "exotic" indicator by the general trading public. Only now, in the early 21st century, are western traders really beginning to understand the power of this charting system. How it is to be used, as described below:
  • While Ichimoku utilizes five separate lines or components, they are not to be used individually, in isolation, when making trading decisions, but rather used together to form an integrated "whole" picture of price action that can be gleaned "at a glance". Thus, a simple look at an Ichimoku chart should provide the Ichimoku practitioner with a nearly immediate understanding of sentiment, momentum and strength of trend.
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GUANYINDIZI avatar

wow, huge topic, write some more plz

klintons avatar
klintons 21 Oct.

Very well

priceaction113 avatar

good article regarding  Ichimoku

k_morocco avatar
k_morocco 26 Oct.

thanks u a lot , great presentation

FXProsperHub avatar

My pleasure :)... if you need guys to develop strategy for JForex let me know. I can help :)

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4/47
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Traders spend a lot of time and energy trying to find the Perfect System. They argue that they will struck it rich once they find THE SYSTEM or if they’re discretionary, once they refine their trading enough. It has long been my assertion that risk control and diversification are much more important then the trading system itself.
I've argued that you don't have to be a genius trader in order to make money in the markets. In fact you can make money with remarkably simple trading systems. In this article we'll go over one system that has only 1 entry/exit trading rule. Yes you read that right, ONE. Here's a little preview of the results for this system.
Toward the end of the article I present a four-year backtest of this system on the four most liquid currency pairs EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD and AUD/USD. Here is the simplest system on this entire website.
Ten-Month Moving Average System
There is only 1 entry/exit rule. If price closes above the 10-month simple moving average, you buy. If price falls below the 10-month moving average, you sell. This is a Stop and Reverse System (SAR). Once your long gets the exit signal (price below 10 SMA) you close the position and initiate a n…
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faisal777 avatar
faisal777 25 Aug.

good work

bibo avatar
bibo 5 Sep.

thanks for sharing with us

angelina_may avatar

interesting

TInna avatar
TInna 8 Sep.

great article! keep it up)

rashadali avatar

very good article )

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11/46
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According to my backtest, this strategy has been profitable for at least two years now. The strategy itself is very simple and literally takes less then 5 minutes PER WEEK to execute. If you have been trading for a while, you’ve probably encountered this system in one version or another on forex forums. It’s a simple weekly breakout strategy. After the markets open on Sunday at 23:00 CET (17:00 EST) we wait for the first 4 Hour candle to close. This happens at 3 AM CET on Monday, or 9 PM EST. Since I know I will get this question, if your broker has different 4 Hour settings, just use the hourly chart and draw a breakout box from 23:00 to 03:00.
For longs:
Place a Buy stop order at the high of the 4 Hour breakout box + 20 pips (+2 pips added for the spread)
For shorts:
Place a Sell stop order at the low of the 4 Hour candle - 20 pips
Rules
Here are the rules I used during the backtest. I tried to keep the rules simple and robust to avoid curve-fitting the data. The stoploss is placed at the opposite side of the of the breakout channel. If we are long we exit our trade when price breaks the low of the breakout channel and we simultaneously enter a short trade. But we only take …
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fxsurprise8 avatar

Thanks for your comment Airmike. While 125 trades may seem like a small amount, this is a weekly strategy. Doing a test with 1000 trades would mean back-testing the past 1000 weeks or since 1996. The Euro wasn't even around back then.

You can't use the same rules for short-term and long-term strategies.

ivanbgd avatar
ivanbgd 31 Mar.

Article is very nice for me !

driven avatar
driven 2 May

Sorry I didn't see this earlier so I could like and comment on it during the contest.

driven avatar
driven 2 May

I'm by no mean an expert on forex (still researching when I have the time), but there are a number of 'cherry picking' bells that go off in my head when I read this. Please don't take this as a harsh critique, this article is much better than most on here. But why do you use only one currency pair, and not even GBP or USD? Do you assume there is enough correlation that it applies to all, or did this just happen to be the one you tested? And as I'm sure you know, curve fitting is not just about maintaining general rules, you will inevitably find patterns if you go through enough data...

driven avatar
driven 2 May

...You could go to a casino and go through the red/black history at all the roulette tables and if there are enough of them you will find a number of patterns, but as we know there is no reason to think they will apply in the future. We know that from conceptually understanding how roulette wheels work. I guess my question here is: what is your conceptual model for why this patterns works? Do you assume there is an assimilation of information during the first 4 hours after a weekly open and then this information coalesces at this point? But why 4 hours and not 2 or 3?

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2/46
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VictoriaVika avatar

Insightful - very well done!  Keep up the good work :)

Airmike avatar
Airmike 9 Mar.

wow.  very nice statistical sample :)

MobNaga avatar
MobNaga 10 Mar.

thank you, Airmike, anna_t, and VV!!
Be honestly, this research is not for the the one-month or one-year wonder strategy. If you want to design such strategy as like as the pure gambling strategy for the high-rate currency pairs, you don't need this articles, all you need is the luck :))

Olga18375 avatar
Olga18375 11 Mar.

Good luck!! And useful article!! Well done

Likerty avatar
Likerty 25 Mar.

I wrote a series of articles some time ago about why traditional tech analysis tools are doomed to fail.. And these comonly accepted indicators, like RSI, MACD, ichimoku etc.. are just useless.. Its rather a distraction from all the info, that Price action on itself gives..

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11/30
Ranking
Average true range (ATR) is a technical analysis volatility indicator originally developed by J. Welles Wilder, Jr. for commodities. The indicator does not provide an indication of price trend, simply the degree of price volatility
(by Wikipedia)

Introduction

In this article, we suggest that there is some correlation between the strength of price trend and Average True Range Indicators. We suspect that when that ATR goes down, then a price trend is likely to the end. And we describes that by 3 chapters in this paper.
  1. How To Calculate ATR? Describes a more details of ATR Indicator which was used for this research.
  2. Chart Pattern Analysis. This is an abstract explanation by standard chart patterns. Sections: Double Top, Triangle.
  3. Back Test Analysis. This is a concrete explanation by the 759679 orders of 5 currency pairs back-test result(2004 - 2014). Sections: Trading rule, Filters, EUR/USD(152304). GBP/USD(149175), USD/JPY(152798), USD/CHF(150498), USD/CAD(154904), Summary.
Chapter 1: How To Calculate ATR?
At first, you needs to calculate a true range. The range of a day's trading is a high minus low price. And the true range extends it to yesterday's closing price if it was outsi…
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VictoriaVika avatar

Nice analysis on. Great one for using in Forex markets!  Wait the next one exiting article. 

brunodanzer avatar

very good, this data is really very interesting

MobNaga avatar
MobNaga 18 Jan.

thanks,

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13/19
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Introduction
Although it is a matter of taste, I can't feel the truth from some article based on very few past chart. I want to read an article which has something real for improve my trading. So, at first, I try to write a something like that. And I hope that many articles based on long term back test at short period chart will be show up on this contest...
It aside this article's research theme is Simple Volume Average Indicator. Many FX-websites says that "Look the volume". But is it true? Does volume indicator has a something meaning? I can't believe that without any back data. So I did check that with back-test in decade by myself.
Back Test Settings
At first, this chapter explains the strategy which was used for get the default back-test data.
Fig 1: Trading Rule Sample: BUY
Fig 2: Trading Rule Sample: SELL
  • Trading rules of the sample strategy for this research is “MinMaxBoxCounter”.
  • Chart is EUR/USD 5 minutes bar.
  • SL is 0.5% of the close price.
  • TP is 0.1% of the close price.
  • Filter is ALL_FLATS.
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WallStreetBlog avatar

Thank you very much!!!!

Jignesh avatar
Jignesh 31 Oct.

Good job on being so thorough in your back testing.  I like the honesty as well with including all the data, positive and negative.  A very genuine article.

Stix avatar
Stix 31 Oct.

Thank you, MobNaga. I think it is a lovely Article and very well presented. I couldn't find Simple Volume Average Indicator on the JForex platform - I would be curious to see it for myself, perhaps on other pairs. The BackTesting is appreciated. Thanks again and best wishes ! :) :)

MobNaga avatar
MobNaga 31 Oct.

Thank you guys & ladies for trying to understand my poor English :)))
P.S. I checked the JStor. Oops, It seemed there isn't a something like Volume-Average-indicator. Sorry, I uploaded that in JStore. Please waits acceptance... (But, It is very simple strategy. It is same as SMA(Volume))

annamart avatar
annamart 4 Nov.

+++ Thank you, MobNaga.

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14/19
Ranking
Hey SVA, I know what you did last decade…
Hi traders, do you check the Simple Volume Average-Indicator's value?
Just out of curiosity, I did researched performance of the SVA-indicator in the last 10 years. In this report, I will show you the truth of the SVA.
Back Test Settings.
  • Trading rules of the sample strategy for this research is “MinMaxBoxCounter”.
  • Chart is EUR/USD 5 minutes bar.
  • SL is 0.5% of the close price.
  • TP is 0.1% of the close price.
  • Filter is ALL_FLATS.
  • When close price was highest value of the last 26 bars it try to take a SHORT position. And, bar A is the bar which is 26 bar before. Bar B is the bar which has a second highest close price. Bar C is the bar which has a lowest close price. Bar D is the bar which has a highest close price.
  • When close price was lowest value of the last 26 bars it try to take a LONG position. And, bar A is the bar which is 26 bar before. Bar B is the bar which has a second lowest close price. Bar C is the bar which has a highest close price. Bar D is the bar which has lowest close price.
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Olga18375 avatar
Olga18375 14 Oct.

Well done! Good and useful article!!

VictoriaVika avatar

Great work, and best wishes with this article!

MobNaga avatar
MobNaga 16 Oct.

Thanks

ilonalt avatar
ilonalt 16 Oct.

interesting information, buy in fact, i'm not using any indicators in my trading

MobNaga avatar
MobNaga 16 Oct.

Yes, I know, indicators are just lucky-charm...But it is very working at EUR/USD :)

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1/47
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Although I have an extensive programming background, for more than a few years I've stopped doing any programming and started pursuing other career job, so although I did forgot a lot of things I think I can handle the Visual JForex platform and describe you in details my simple EMA crossover system. The process of creating a strategy is what Dukascopy likes to see, so that was the main reason why I've decided to write this article.The main concept for this system is incredibly simple yet unbelievably effective and even if you don't have any programming knowledge, you should be fine by simple following the step-by-step guide from this article.Lets proceed first by giving a short summary of our strategy:Indicators we're going to use: 5EMA, 10EMA, RSI(10).Time Frame: Hourly (very important!).Pairs: Virtually any pair seems to work as this is strictly technical analysis. I recommend sticking to the main currencies and avoiding cross currencies.When to Enter a trade: Enter LONG when the 5EMA crosses the 10EMA from underneath and RSI must be above 50 to warrant entry. Enter SHORT when the 5EMA crosses the 10EMA from the top and RSI must be below 50 to warrant entry.When to Exit a trade:…
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foxybaby avatar
foxybaby 19 Dec.

running on live account

Daytrader21 avatar

foxybaby Please before running it on the live account do some backtesting to see how it has behaved for the last few months. I thing it still needs some improvements.

Nihad avatar
Nihad 3 Mar.

Thanks for the wonderful effort and I suggest you record a youtube video and post it here along, the available videos by DK are primitive. Additionally, any help on building an INDICATOR Block?

Daytrader21 avatar

Nihad Thanks, unlike you I find dukascopy videos very helpfully. I'm not sure I quite understand your question, please can you be more specific?

Senno88 avatar
Senno88 4 Sep.

Is it possible to download this strategy somewhere?

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30/46
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After the first implementations exposed in previous article, I am now to show more important aspect involved in automating a strategy and as promised, I will show the results I obtained after last arrangements. Collecting data When planning a strategy - will it be manual or automated - one key step is to collect all data obtained from tests, to quickly compare all results. So I invested some time to setup this simple table, using a program easily found for free on the web:Using such a simple table, helps to understand if and how an arrangement really affects/or not a strategy, relatively to previous results. And it also helps me to save a lot of words! Previous test I finished last article showing the results obtained from the very first tests. After some days of study on strategy behavior, I came to the conclusion to reduce the stop loss and the take profit trying to stabilize the profitability by getting more profitable trades. Results were slightly better than previous, so I decided to take this as starting point. Here below you see the equity curve, obtained directly from Jforex visual tester:The curve shows nothing new respectively to the raw data, but helps to visually …
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scramble avatar
scramble 26 Apr.

yes efegen, the first picure is intentionally partial-obfuscate: all data are shown in the following paragraphs! tks :)

jlongo avatar
jlongo 29 Apr.

I'm a litle sceptical about using MA's with the current market flow, and obeying to too much parameters sooner or later we can't get the expected results. But is a good starting point and we are always learning :)

scramble avatar
scramble 29 Apr.

yes jose i know, MAs have some important problems. results obtained after last arrangements are very interesting anyway.. personally i didn't believe to reach such. let's see what forward tests will give! and yes... we are always learning! this strategy has been a great school for me! :) tks

AdrianWS avatar
AdrianWS 29 Apr.

good work and great to see that you are taking the time to learn to code, so useful in life! nice mini series you've got going, maybe next month try some really complicated multi indicator strategy :)

scramble avatar
scramble 29 Apr.

more likely i will crash my head while trying to understand how to restructure the open-position block (already a chair today was going...) :D eheh tks for your support :)

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1/46
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If there's one trading-related activity that I really enjoy doing is creating simple mechanical strategies that have a statistical edge, and can be successfully used by anyone, regardless of experience level in the world of trading in general, and Forex in particular. This month I took a look at a moving average indicator called the GMMA (Guppy Multiple Moving Average), and tried to come up with a profitable strategy, based on a few simples rules. ___________________________________________► Brief introduction into the GMMA indicator Even though this tool (developed by Australian trader Daryl Guppy) is not available in the Dukascopy jForex platform, you can easily apply it to your charts, because it simply consists of two groups of exponential moving averages (EMA). The faster averages are 3, 5, 8, 10, 12 and 15 EMA, while the slower ones are 30, 35, 40, 45, 50 and 60 EMA. The way you trade with the GMMA is not by the typical moving average crossover you would expect, but by analysing and interpreting the interaction between the two groups (for example, if the distance between them is compressing or expanding), and also among the different EMAs within each group. However, …
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Dieselfx avatar
Dieselfx 30 Apr.

thanks for ur support, good luck to u too in this contest ;)

DumbAsArock avatar

Never too late for another +1

khalidamassi avatar

good work, I liked it +++

apsu avatar
apsu 1 May

good

foxybaby avatar
foxybaby 22 Mar.

not good. Looking at the equity curve in your backtesting. Winning trades until around trade 60. Afterwards constant loss until trade 120. If the trades are evenly distributed over time, then you have made profit between 2003 and 2007. From 2007 onwards there were only losses t come. If you start today, you would have to expect a losing strategy.

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26/46
Ranking
Premise In continuation of previous article Set main rules where I described main particularities of this simple strategy, I am now exposing main data obtained from some back-test and the arrangements I did in order to improve the stability and profitability. Back-Test First of all, I wish the strategy to produce as many losses as possible but in the same time, not to cause too much drawdown or (worst) completely destroy the account. Second, I need at least 100 executed positions so in this case a 3 month test should be enough. Third, once obtained the results I will have to understand how many times the strategy fails, why and when. Results Here are the 3 months back-test results:As we see, the strategy did not burn the account which is actually a good sign considering there is not even 1 single way to protect the downside risk (except the stop loss and default margin call). However, there is a large imbalance favoring the losing trades, indeed ending equity returned a value of 37.329$ meaning a 25% net loss caused by 97 losing trades. The strategy is based in a fast timeframe (15minutes) but considering the particularity of the rules, there are far more than expected losing…
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scramble avatar
scramble 26 Apr.

@efegen: my bad! few days ago was updating the page, i was sure i clicked the "publish" button before exiting. now updated!!! TKS :)

scramble avatar
scramble 26 Apr.

@doc: definetly i believe that having a nice strategy running in account is a good opportunity! in my case i'm looking to develop a short term one, and focus my self on med/long term trades. don't forget to give an eye on jforex visual :)

jlongo avatar
jlongo 29 Apr.

It's nice to have all type of articles explaining our possible errors and how to see them, this series contains valuable information :) Keep the good work!

scramble avatar
scramble 29 Apr.

tks jose! indeed my hope with this article is to show what in my opinion is the meaning of the word "testing": it's not just testing what a strategy did in last 1500years using some setups based on ideas, collect data to print a possible picture, so decide if use or not that strategy... "testing" imo means to clearly understand where are bad problems, if there is a reasonable solution and how to build it!

Metal_Mind avatar
Metal_Mind 27 July

very nice !! bravo !! LIKE

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19/46
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PremiseI'm actually studying Java programming to improve my personal background. I started some time ago, but I had to postpone due to many difficulties and my knowledge is still at an elementary level, so in case you notice some mistakes on the code, please forgive me in advance. With this article I want to show how I automated a simple MA-based strategy. So I also take the opportunity to share it and to show my approach in detecting main factors and then all steps I considered while developing and testing the code.ToolsI decided to start coding the very first strategy I used because I have a good familiarity with all its good & bad aspects, and to use it in this article since gives a clear perception of the main aspects I'm presenting. However, the code can be modified to look for different MA periods in different timeframes and instruments.Instrument: EUR/USD;Timeframe: 15 Minutes;Indicators: EMA(14) & EMA(65);EssentialsThe strategy is simple and people could laugh thinking about it, while I really suggest to give it a deeper consideration.This is how the chart setup appears:The rule is clear: sell when green line (ema14) cross down the red one (ema65), buy when it cross up. But…
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scramble avatar
scramble 29 Apr.

tks @likery and @alifari! much appreciated :)

charmtrader avatar

wow! I am really impressed...great job!!!

charmtrader avatar

+10

scramble avatar
scramble 29 Apr.

tks charm :) much appreciated!

scramble avatar

funny to have about 20-25fb likes, and see that they are not counted in total popularity.

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8/48
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   This article is determined mainly
for beginning traders because experienced traders know traps of backtesting
process very well. But as I found, there is not very much information about it
in the literature or web pages about trading. Everywhere you can read that
backtesting is essential for your trading and that a lot of people are going to
underestimate it . But to be honest, I can’t remember a single good article where was written “How to backtest”
and of what to be aware during this process.
    My thought on this theme starts when one friend
of mine asked me to show him how to trade. But trading isn’t something what
can be learn this way. You can’t
 think that you can watch some
traders few times in action, learn his/her strategy and just copy it and be a good
trader. No no, not even exact science like mathematic can be learn properly so
easily. So I tell him that he should stop just reading about trading and start
doing it. Start with demo account, place some orders and start with backtesting
some basic thought (when you beginning you can start with whatever you want).
But beginners do not believe that trading can’t  be learnt easily. So he
wanted me to show him my system.…
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doctortyby avatar
doctortyby 27 June

You are right my friend, it is very important to eliminate subjectivism from the Backtesting Process

Nizamcr3dit avatar

Expertly done

Forex1234 avatar
Forex1234 28 June

Very useful here.

Fxswingking avatar

Very good and insightful

lkubanek avatar
lkubanek 30 June

Thank you all people

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