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AUD/USD Forecast and Effects of Dollar Fluctuations
AUD/USD Forecast: May 2018
Tuesday, 1 May 2018 6:08
The Australian dollar has broken down during the last couple of weeks of April, slicing through major uptrend line that goes back to late 2015. This is a very negative sign, and even though we did bounce a bit towards the end of the month, I think we will probably see resistance near the uptrend line once we approach it again. If we stay below the uptrend line, I suspect that we will then eventually go to the 0.75 handle, and then break down below there to go to the 0.7250 level. Pay attention to the yields in the United States, because if they do rise that will send this market much lower. There is a lot of noise just below though, so I think that even if we break down it will probably be more of a grind than anything else.The alternate scenario of course is that we break above the 0.77 handle, and that should send this market much higher, perhaps towards the 0.80 level. That would also prove the market breaking through the uptrend line as a “false breakdown”, which of course is something that shows just how bullish the market is. Currently, I think that we have a lot of volati…
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AngleRMS avatar
AngleRMS 21 June


bhavinvanza avatar

Thanks angle

Aaamira avatar
Aaamira 21 June

good one!

JaiBabaKi avatar
JaiBabaKi 22 June

cool article!

AlisaVictoria1881 avatar

Good article!

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Доброго времени суток друзья. Сегодняшняя статья будет описывать торговые идеи о трех валютных парах и сырьевом активе Brend. На этой недели выйдет блок информационной статистики которая окажет влияние на валютные пары представленные ниже.
Фундаментальный Анализ
Индекс делового оптимизма в промышленности (июл)
Индикатор делового климата (июл)
Индекс настроений в экономике (июл)
Индекс совпадающих индикаторов (июн)
Индекс опережающих индикаторов (июн)
Заседание комитета по кредитно-денежной политике Банка Японии
Иностранные инвестиции в японские акции (июл 17)
Инвестиции в иностранные облигации (июл 17)
Индекс потребительских цен (кв/кв) (Q2)
Индекс базовой инфляции РБА методом усечённого среднего (г/г) (Q2)
Индекс потребительских цен (г/г) (Q2)
Индекс базовой инфляции РБА методом усечённого среднего (кв/кв) (Q2)
Индекс PMI Markit в производственном секторe (июл)
Cоставной индекс деловой активности Markit (июл)
Индекс деловой активности в секторе услуг Markit (июл)
Продажи новых домов (м/м) (июн)
Продажи новых домов (м/м) (июн)
Комментарий ФРС по кредитно-денежной политике
Решение ФРС США по процентной ставке
Годовые данные по ВВП (Q2)Предварительный
Евро по прежнему…
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RahmanSL avatar
RahmanSL 24 July

Nice work my friend :)

FXRabbit avatar
FXRabbit 29 July

Good article!

Natalia_Kisenko avatar

Very nice article!

Lady_in_Red avatar

Good job. very interesting ideas

JuliannaS avatar
JuliannaS 15 Aug.

то что мне сейчас нужно )

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Доброго времени суток друзья. Статья будет описывать торговые идеи о четырех валютных парах.
На этой недели выйдет блок информационной статистики которая окажет влияние на валютные пары представленные ниже.
Фундаментальный Анализ
Изменение уровня заработной платы (г/г) (апр) пред. -0,4%
Инвестиции в иностранные облигации (июн 2)
Иностранные инвестиции в японские акции (июн 2)
Прогноз развития событий от Eco Watchers (май) пред. 48,8
Индекс текущей ситуации от Eco Watchers (май) пред. 48,1
Индекс активности в сфере услуг (м/м) (апр) пред. -0,2%
Индекс товарных цен от ANZ (май) пред. -0,2%
Сальдо счета платежного баланса (Q1) пред. -3,9B
Решение Резервного Банка Австралии по процентной ставке пред. 1,5%
Сопроводительное заявление Резервного Банка Австралии
Индекс активности в строительном секторе от AiG (май) пред. 51,9
Валовой внутренний продукт (г/г) (Q1) пред. 2,4%
Валовой внутренний продукт (кв/кв) (Q1) пред. 1,1%
Экспорт (апр) пред. 2%
Импорт (апр) пред. 5%
Торговый баланс (апр) пред. 3 107M
Ипотечные кредиты (апр) пред. -0,5%
Инвестиционные заимствования для строительства домов (апр) пред. 0,8%
Индекс деловой активности Ivey (май) пред. 58,5
Индекс деловой активност…
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anna_n avatar
anna_n 12 June

как много тут всего!

dariadryga avatar
dariadryga 13 June

Очень полезное исследование!

khalidamassi avatar

Seemed good, +1

WallStreetBlog avatar

Muy interesante!

Sharpshooter avatar

Интересно вышло)

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Dans cet article je vais analyser quelques paires de devises sur le weekly et le daily time frame en vue de d'avoir une vision globale des mouvements qui peuvent se dessiner les jours prochains.
  • EURUSD: un trend baissier qui s'approche d'une zone de support.

Sur le weekly la paire évolue toujours dans un trading range qui a débuter Mars 2015, la récente baisse de la paire l'a amener tout près de la de support à 1.07, qui représente la borne basse du trading range.
Sur le daily nous constatons un très fort momentum, mais comme sur le weekly se mouvement est déjà arrivé à une zone de support.
L'achat de l'EURUSD quand il montrera un comportement bullish est très justifié. Sur le daily il suffira de quelque chandelier de reversement, sur les lower time frame il faudra attendre les premiers higher low.
  • AUDUSD: Zone d'incertitude

Sur le weekly la paire est dans un trend baissier très soutenu qui l'a conduit au alentours d'une zone de support de 0.68.
Le trend baissier risque de se convertir en trading range puisque la paire a construit son premier higher low et a casser le lower high à 0.7380.
En ce moment la paire est tout prés du 0.7830.
Sur le Daily la paire s'inscrit dans u…
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thedoctor avatar
thedoctor 31 Oct.


sonjatrader avatar

Well done!!

k_morocco avatar

VictoriaVika thedoctor sonjatrader thanks you a lot for your support and kind words

wmndave avatar
wmndave 16 Nov.


FXRabbit avatar
FXRabbit 23 Nov.

Good article!

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English text
K-line daily candle chart
Trend Analysis AUDUSD AUDUSD daily, the pressure level is 0.7670 straddle the dividing line, such as a breakthrough, the bullish 0.78. Since the Reserve Bank of Australia cut interest rates, the Australian dollar has been in a post-up instead of defensive, unable to break the short-term pressure, it is possible to fall into decline.
The first support position: 0.7550
The second support position: 0.7450
If not effectively support, then fell into a pressure position
1 hour K line candles

AUDUSD AUDUSD, 1 Xiaoshi candle chart analysis of trends in the upward trajectory
SELL①: at 12:00 on August 5, touch on the track, provides a good short-selling positions, operational risk with stop-loss is minimal sharp decline in touch 0.7590 to obtain support under the rail
SELL②: August 9 02 points, touching the lower rail, and below the support trend was confirmed SELL①
How to successfully find SELL① time and price position within time? See below:
10 minutes K-line diagram candle

10 minutes K Line candles: at 12:00 on August 5th, the Australian dollar fell, and below the rising trend line, MACD is also in departure from breaking under the 0 axis, the succ…
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sharpsense avatar
sharpsense 31 Aug.

looks very professional

HOME avatar
HOME 31 Aug.

GammaBurst Thank you for reading

HOME avatar
HOME 31 Aug.

sharpsense Thank you for reading

vikyllya avatar
vikyllya 3 Sep.


bibo avatar
bibo 12 Sep.

brilliant idea

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Who from all of us at least once tried to prevent the market trend?
And I am not talking about target INTRADAY or of some BROKERS spot , I'm talking about speculating the market trend of the following weeks or even months!
In the last weeks I have done different season testing on many cross with stops until 20 years, though some are less evident than others, all the cross have shown repetitive behaviors!
Important times in the same period of the year, for years! Who has read my previous article on CAD, (you can find it HERE) knows what im talking about.
Actually this feature we know it already and is not a new, in fact as we know
the economic phases of the nations repeats and the coin represents an economic expression of that nation.

But how can we use this feature in FOREX?
Easy, the more a cross behavior happens in time, the more is the chance it will happen again!
With the accurate observations and technical analysis we can speculate the trend of a cross with accuracy and then position our self accordingly! Before the movement starts!
As you can guess the potential of this kind of analysis are evident, the chances of earning are incredible!
In the meanwhile express your opini…
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TRAD3R avatar
TRAD3R 23 June

thanks marina2016 ))

zarina avatar
zarina 24 June

Хорошая работа , интересная статья !

valter avatar
valter 24 June

Очень интересная статья!

TRAD3R avatar
TRAD3R 24 June

thanks :) zarina valter

Faster avatar
Faster 24 June

good work

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Review of the last week
Beginning last week marked the continuation of pressure on the dollar for the last nfp who was disappointed and I went out to the data of only 38k in relation to the expected 165k. But as Sunday progressed dollar is coming back all the losses and the finals Sunday press the advantage in relation to other currencies.
Although the euro was one of the currencies that have strengthened the most against the dollar in the nfp despite good data that marked last week and especially more than expected gdp in the EU, euro is start to loosing momentum on the end of the week. Reason for that we can find in brexit polls where Britons will decide to stay in EU or not. Last polls shows that ,,leave” have some advantage and that bring risk for both UK and EU. Because of that euro and pound was on the big pressure on the two last days of the week.
Usdcad was very choopy last week and the main reason for that is that oil was on the crucial resistance and some false breakout and bouncing from resistance level of 51.6$ lead huge volatility on usdcad. This pair fall around 150 pips last week but that can be worst for usd because in the last two days usd recover on almost all …
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Sennna88 avatar
Sennna88 16 June

Great and detailed analysis. What is your opinion of this pair after Australian employment report ?

klintons avatar
klintons 16 June


JuliannaS avatar
JuliannaS 25 June

Detailed and good written .  I like to read it

Olkiss70 avatar
Olkiss70 25 June

very nice

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Review of last week
Last week began with the BOJ meeting minutes which was not volatile for the yen pairs and we got the conclusion that the economy of Japan improving gradualy, however it did not help the yen to be held in relation to other currencies and was the weakest currency in the last week among the majors. In the EU we had weak data particularly in the industrial production and GDP of EU, which was below expectations, while perhaps the only positive point was that Germany had somewhat better than expected inflation and trade balance that far exceeded expectations. Also, the euro was one of the weakest currencies and compared to usd fell and broke through some key supports.
On Thursday we had the BoE, pound was very choppy but after expectations of lower inflation and moderate dovish stance of Carney continued to decline. Rise of oil prices in the last week did not help commodity currencies and they were all in the red compared to usd. Based on the above, we conclude that the US dollar was the strongest currency in the last week after a week of declined from the low this year.
This week we will analyze one of the commodity currency compared to usd which is now in a very st…
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bokafx avatar
bokafx 29 May

Good view on AUD and nice article

Nika_1952 avatar

Good professional look.

Helena_Prekrasnaj avatar

good analysis and almost a sure forecast))

fxsurprise8 avatar


Govagent avatar
Govagent 1 June

Good article ^_^

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In this article AUDUSD will be analyzed both fundamentally and technically and as known nothing is impossible in Forex so different scenarios will be drawn to express about the most probable scenarios with the AUDUSD.
What is affected the move of AUDUSD nowadays:
Fundamental analysis:
AUDUSD is affected now by two different policies by both Reserve bank of Australia (RBA) and United States Federal Reserve (FED) and also affected strongly by commodity prices which strongly hit Aussie in the last year, finally Aussie and other currencies is affected due to strong growth in US in the last months which make US$ to be favored.
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WallStreet6 avatar


VALTRAD avatar

Первый сценарий тоже считаю наиболее вероятным.

khalidamassi avatar

Thanks everyone for support

khalidamassi avatar

Scenario 1 still preferred for me as 0.7400 holds.

Natalia_Kisenko avatar

very good article!

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Introduction:First To All , Here My Article about Cross Currency Related ,so You can Lose all Your Money If You Not Follow Proper Money Management and Trading Rules.We Know Forex Trading is Very Risky Online Earning Method ,so we must be First Learn it and Try To For Earn.
Sell Strategy For High Rate Currency:Emotion Has no Value During Forex trading ,Here You Invest Your valuable money for Earning ,Today Here I Described about High Rate Currency or Cross Currency Trading Technique.Many Trader Open Position Before Market Rollover time For Hunting Swap By High Rate Currency Pair ,But I think It is Very bad Practice ,Your Daily Target 10$ or More But Your risk More than 300$ .If You Open Sell Position For hunting swap by USDZAR ,USDTRY,USDRUB ,All of Position will Be open With Big spread ,and if market movement against Your Position ,what will be result?You can expect 90% Market will be opposite of Your Position !Why?Why?Why?
Most Of The Bank Sell High Rate Currency or Cross Currency ,So We Can See High Rate Currency or Cross Currency Always sell Rally Mode and Your Lose will be 10 Time Bigger of Your swap ,so It is Not Better always sell High Rate Currency or Cross Currency ?
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bdfx avatar
bdfx 19 Feb.

Thank You For Good Comment

Olkiss70 avatar
Olkiss70 21 Feb.

good and useful work!

williamb avatar
williamb 22 Feb.

good work

bdfx avatar
bdfx 22 Feb.

Thanks every body

Nihad avatar
Nihad 27 Feb.

Good luck buddy

orto leave comments
Now Forex Trading Not Only Popular But also Very attractive Online Based Earning Method From Home.Any People Can Start Forex Trading From Home If He/She Has Minimum English Skill and Computer or Smart Phone Operating Knowledge,But It is Very Easy to Start But Very Hard For Earning.
Over Trading
Over Trading is Big Problem For All Trader ,Most Of The Time we Influence By Over Trading and End Of The Day We Lose Our Profit and Part Of Our Own Capital.But It is Big Question Why Forex Trader Like Over Trading?
Firstly Control Your Emotion During Forex Trading ,we know Human emotion is The Big Reason For Over Trading.Forex market is the Biggest Market in the World ,Here we need Invest Our Own Money and use Our Own Talent For Earning ,so Forex Trader Need satisfy-cation Of Daily Profit and Use Follow Trading Rules Properly
Money Management
Forex market Is Big Single Market,So Every Forex Trader Need Follow Money management Rules.But It is True many Forex Trader Has No Enough Idea or Knowledge about Money Management But We know Money Management is Main Key Of Trading Success .Without Money management Forex trader lose all capital Within Few day . I think Money Management is th…
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Airmike avatar
Airmike 13 Jan.


Skif avatar
Skif 27 Jan.

good job buddy

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Introduction of this mannerThere are millions of traders who want to reach a profit on their investments, but since it is a zero sum game, and there are a lot of big banks, and so on, you must do everything you can not to be on the loss side of the market movements.The more the knowledge is the more the profit? No, there is no sure money in these circumstances. If it was, someone would use a big fund with a vast leverage and would get all the money of the investors.. But it is impossible, and it shows the impossibility of sure trade, too.What about the basis?Today, I am going to share a useful manner of trading the forex market.The principles what I used as base to this manner:If a monkey opens positions in the market, with 10 pips profit and 10 pips loss, it will be probably a successful trader, for a time, and some time later makes a loss and again profit, it will go around the base capital, and proceed nowhere. Sometime show +-10-20% profit/loss, but then turn back.If you do the same with a strategy, tied to some MA, or pivot points, it will be not the same. What will happen? Theorically, you will not have larger chance to be successful. If you had, it would be the same what I h…
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Lincoln avatar
Lincoln 10 Oct.

Thanx for sharing your opinion. There in no easy trade.. :) It is a must to analyze the situation for a long while before make any trade, so I can just suggest to watch what is happening and be ready to act. If there is no plan, there is no trade.

doctortyby avatar
doctortyby 16 Oct.

You seem to be imporving your writing style. I like the aspect of this article and of course the information provided is very useful. I also recommend long term analysis and trading with low risk and a good reward risk ratio. But the SL has to be large enough to leave room for the price to move before taking your forecasted direction.

Lincoln avatar
Lincoln 16 Oct.

Thanx, I have been learning english just for 10 months, I spend a lot of time to try to write as understandable as possible.. It is good to hear that I am improving, It is on my way to prove, and share my opinions, and I wish the best for you, your article and webinars are excessive, I hope you all the best!

pichou avatar
pichou 17 Oct.

forex is not a zero sum game. it is a negative sum game. the brokers keep the spread

Lincoln avatar
Lincoln 17 Oct.

Yeah absolutely, this is one of the most important pricliples on what my articles based on. If I am not mistaken I wanted to share this view as well. It is on the side of long term trading that the expenses are much more smaller.

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    "When market conditions change, I change my mind" (J. M. Keynes)      Greetings dear traders. Today we are going to make our usual analysis for 5 of the major pairs: Eur/Usd (Fiber), Gbp/Usd (Cable/Pound), Usd/Chf (Swiss Franc), Usd/Jpy (Jap. Yen) and Aud/Usd (Aussie). We will also try to cover some of the commonly market conditions for a trend.   To better understand a trend we have to start from the definition: The general direction of the market price for a certain trading instrument (currency pair, commodity, bond, stock).   If we want to identify a trend we have to look at the charts and see if we can find some simple signs:Higher Swing Lows and Higher Swing Highs for an Uptrend,Lower Swing Lows and Lower Swing Highs for a Downtrend.   Trends Classification:Major Trends (Primary Trends) - are ascending or descending trends, interrupted by corrections (Sell-offs in Uptrends and Rallies in Downtrends), last from several months to several years. Intermediate Trends - can develop in the direction of the Major Trend or in the opposite direction (in this case it is considered a correction), last from several weeks to several months.Minor Trends (Sell-Off or Rallies) …
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kkforex avatar
kkforex 22 May

I feel Aussie has broken the weekly trendline last week and this week it will test it at 0.9980 and then continue down till 0.9650 Also Euro and GBPJPY might test broken neckline on dailies this week. Nice analysis 1+

LinnuxFX avatar
LinnuxFX 22 May

Nice article, do you used it in webinar? Good Luck...

belman avatar
belman 25 May

Great rank and analisis, good and nice weekend to you +1

MyiDEA avatar
MyiDEA 28 May

good article....

egidijus avatar
egidijus 28 May

Interesting article. Good luck! +1

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Quiet start on Sunday - In turn will wait for London to Break momentum and when the DAX breaks through its prior high or low of Friday i would jump  for 40pips 1:1trading ratio.Trade on the enevelope bands 0f 60 : 0.1 when there is a break out above the DAX  look to the AUDUSD. At the moment aussie follows the stock very well on correlation.DOW & DAX are in a correction and will continue its rally in the Bullish Trend.US retail will fuel things up - if we get 1.1 or more 0.1 or lessactual number trade the USDJPY pair using the limit order system or then the 1min60sma should then be considered when the limit order value has been breached.UK CPI has not surprised in
a while. The track record is border line for the limit order system. The 1
minute 60sma is the best bet. Best trade the GBPUSDUnemployment Claimshave not surprised in a very long time but would
be a great limit order candidate in the event there is a trade signal. One
caveat is the UK MPC minutes (specifically the QE vote count) are released
simultaneously and they could throw a monkey wrench into the price action.
Consider the limit order system in light of the minutes’ headlines
(specifically the QE vote count), in the …
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EURUSD - EURUSD roes sharply this week from 1.2640 to 1.2930 a substantial rise.Most believed to be on the back of short covering but the recent COT report suggests otherwise as it hit Record Shorts of -160K from -155K Net Short contracts.Fundamentals - Greece, Italy and Germany are running the markets recently andfor the foreseeable future, with Europes debt crisis being far more important than any US news. Greece is dangerously close to the edge with its next major debt repayment date being March 20th. If Greece doesn't pay it could trigger a credit event meaning CDS's have to be paid and this could lead to greater problems than 2008 and lehman brother.You just have to look at Greek 1 yrs ( yielding 390% and 10yrs ( at 34%Those figures are entirly unsustainable and greece will most likely Default.Technicals - We saw EURUSD brake up above a desecding trendline and rise to just short of 1.300 - a major pyschological level - which if broken will lead to massive short covering which could potentially push up 200+ pips.we appered to have bottomed at just above 1.26 with a fa…
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DaddyPapi 23 Jan.

Nice article, I have a similar outlook for the AUD USD and the EURO AUD & EURO CAD (my next article). But I think the EURO USD is gonna head back bearish for the same economic reasons as the other EURO pairs and the high correlation between EURO USD still hasnt hit the support of the Monthly Chart´s triangle as yet..

kkforex avatar
kkforex 24 Jan.

I guess euro is going to head back down after 1.3150..when USDX tests around 78.

doctortyby avatar
doctortyby 25 Jan.

The Euro has not gone bearish Yet. Everybody is waiting to short the Euro. Good Fundamental and Technical Analysis.+1 I make my analysis on both bearish and bullish scenarios.

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