Greetings dear Dukascopy Community. Last week I was caught in an offline project and I was not able to update my weekly analysis for the major pair. I appologize for that. This week I will post the Weekly view Analysis for the 4 Hours Time Based charts and the 35/20 pips Constant Range Bars charts in this article and I will also update the Monthly View Analysis from Friday, conducted on the Daily Charts for the Major Pairs.(in the comments section).
Before We start our analysis You should read my article from last month : Key-levels Explained for Range Bars+weekly Analysis for Major Pairs.(to help You understand better the analysis that We will conduct in this article)

In any moment given, We have to remember always that no matter what probability we can calculate for the future movement of the price, there is also a chance that the price action could turn against the higher probability. That is why I consider that the probability is always 50-50% for the price to go bullish or bearish. It can only be safe to be prepared always for the both scenarios. If You toss a coin 10 times and You get heads 8 times, and tails 2 times, for the 11th roll, the probability will be 50-50%, unless the coin is rigged. The same with roulette. Remember this important aspect in order to calculate your risk management properly.

Let's proceed with our analysis:


- 1) Eur/Usd - Weekly View - 19-23rd of March - 4 hours Chart in analogy with 35 Pips Range Bars Charts:

 

  


Bullish Probability - Price has broken the Downtrend Line but has found resistence at 1.319(61.8% Fibonacci, close to the future confluence between 200 and 100 SMAs on the 4 Hours chart). Further the price could retrace back to 1.312 (Weekly main Pivot, confluence with the 50 SMA), and then continue upside to reach 1.324(50% Fibonacci, confuence with weekly R1 Pivot), and rise further to 1.326 (Monthly Main Pivot). The next resistence could be 1.330-1.331 area (Weekly R2 Pivot, confluence with 38.2% Fibonacci).

Bearish Probability - Under the weekly Pivot (1.312, confluence with the 50 SMA on the 4 hours chart), the price could find support at 1.306 (Key confluence between Weekly S1 Pivot and Downtrend Line, now support), retrace back to the weekly pivot and then continue further dwnside to reach 1.304(Monthly S1 Pivot) and 1.30 Support. Further support could be 1.294(Weekly S2 Pivot).



- 2) Usd/Chf - Weekly View - 19-23rd of March - 4 hours Chart in analogy with 35 Pips Range Bars Charts:

  

  



Bullish Probability - Price has broken the Uptrend line on the 4 Hours chart last week. If it will find support around 0.913 (50% Fibonacci and confluence between 200 and 100 SMAs on the 4 hours Chart), it will rise back up above 0.918 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) and continue bullish above 0.921 (Weekly Main Pivot). Further resistence is 0.925-0.928 area (Key confluence between Monthly R1 Pivot and Uptrend Line, and Weekly R1 Pivot). If this key area will be broken and confirmed, price will move further upside to 0.933 resistence and 0.940(Weekly R2 Pivot).

Bearish Probability to confirm the breakout from Friday, will break 0.913 (Key Level confluence between 50% Fibonacci Retracement and 100 and 200 SMAs cross), and it will reach first the 0.908 support area (Key confluence between Monthly Main Pivot, Weekly S1 Pivot and 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement). This is an important Key Level to watch for a strong bearish move to reach 0.902(weekly S2 Pivot) and 0.893 Support.



- 3) Gbp/Usd - Weekly View - 19-23rd of March - 4 hours Chart in analogy with 35 Pips Range Bars Charts:

 


  


Bullish Probability - Please keep into Your attention the fact that Cable has been moving sideways in the last few weeks and it is accumulating strenght. Price is standing above 1.585 (Monthly Pivot) at the moment and it could reach 1.592 (Weekly R1 Pivot) very soon. From this resistence level price could retrace back to 1.585(Monthly Pivot) and then continue further upside to break the uptrend line (now dynamic resistence) and reach 1.602 (Weekly R2 Pivot).

Bearish Probability - If the price will go back under 1.585 (Monthly Main Pivot), it could find the first support around 1.577-1.579 (Key confluence between Weekly Main Pivot and 100 and 200 SMAs on the 4 Hours Chart), and then maybe move further downside to 1.571 (Monthly S1 Pivot) and 1.567 (Weekly S1 Pivot). If this key area will also be broken price could only be stopped by the 1.56 Support or the Key Level - 1.550 (Key confluence between Monthly S2 Pivot and Weekly S2).



- 4) Aud/Usd - Weekly View - 19-23rd of March - 4 hours Chart in analogy with 35 Pips Range Bars Charts:

   



  


Bullish Probability - Price has broken the Downtrend Line on the 4 Hours chart, and has retraced to 1.059 (Key Level, confluence between Monthly S1 Pivot and 61.8 % Fibonacci Retracement). If the price will find support at  1.054 (Weekly Main Pivot, confluence with 50 SMA), the the bullish breakout will move further upside to reach 1.063(confluence between 50% Fibonacci Retracement and 100 SMA), and then 1.067-1.069 Key Area (Key confluence between 38.2 % Fibonacci Retracement, 200 SMA and Weekly R1 Pivot). Further resistence is the 1.072-1.074 area (confluence between Monthly Main Pivot and Weekly R2 Pivot).

Bearish Probability - if the Breakout of the 1.059 Level (Key Level confluence between Monthly S1 Pivot and 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement) will prove to be a false breakout, then the price will break 1.054 (confluence between Weekly Pivot and 50 SMA) and move further downside to 1.048 (Weekly S1 Pivot) and 1.043 (Monthly S2 Pivot and Support). Further support could be 1.035 (Key confluence between Downtrend Line, now dynamic support and weekly S2 Pivot).


- 5) Usd/Jpy - Weekly View - 19-23rd of March - 4 hours Chart in analogy with 20 Pips Range Bars Charts:




    



Bullish Probability - The Yen is currently moving in a Parabolic Uptrend. We have to be careful if We want to chase the uptrend, because when it will turn back bearish, it will be a waterfall strong move. If the 83.20 - 83.29 Area (Key confluence between Monthly R1 Pivot, Weekly Main Pivot and 30 SMA) will hold as support then price will move further upside to reach 84.18 - 84.43 Area (Resistence and Weekly R1 Pivot). further resistence could be 85.30-85.41 Area (Key confluence between Monthly R2 Pivot and Weekly R2 Pivot).

Bearish Probability - If the 83.29-83.20 Key Support Area (confluence between Weekly Main Pivot, 30 SMa and Monthly R1 Pivot) will be broken and confirmed, price could fall under 82.82 (confluence between 50 SMA and 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement) to reach first the 82.22-82.40 Key Area (confluence between 50% Fibonacci, Weekly S1 Pivot and Uptrend Line support). Next Support could be 81.97 (Key Level, confluence between 100 SMa and 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement). Further support could be the Key Level that holds the uptrend on the 4 Hours chart, 81.99 (Key confluence between 200 SMA and Weekly S2 Pivot).



- 6) Usd/Cad - Weekly View - 19-23rd of March - 4 hours Chart in analogy with 20 Pips Range Bars Charts:

 



  




- 7) Nzd/Usd - Weekly View - 19-23rd of March - 4 hours Chart in analogy with 35 Pips Range Bars Charts:

   



 


For the Kiwi (Nzd/Usd) and Loonie (Usd/Cad) pairs I will write the Analysis in the comments after the Article will be posted, because I am limited to 1500 Words in this article.

Disclaimer: Please take responsability for your own trading decisions.

Best Regards,
Doctortyby - Tiberiu
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