Forex mkt price movement and volatility are compounded weekly monthly quarterly and yearly. This week I will write on technical and trend development for the week16/05/2016 as I take a look into the trending currency pairs; price action, what has happened in the mkt in past week and what may likely be installed for the week ahead.
A review on the US dollar index as we all understand that all major currencies trade against the US dollar, so I found it informative to take a look at the US dollar index from week to week to determine its weakness and strength also gauge mkts trend direction for the week .
Dollar index continued uptrend as predicted after trending retracement at 93.50 to close at 94.60 last week. Major economic data from the US last week showed US retail sales rising at the fastest pace in a year at 0.80% excluding autos. The retail sales control core increased 0.90% beating estimates of a 0.40%. while retail sales Excluding autos jumped 0.80%, above the forecasts of 0.50%.
Comparing the dollar against the bracket of major currencies , The dollar emerged the top gainer last week while other currencies traded in negative territory with Nzd Aud and Yen been to worst losers last week .
This week much volatility trend is expected as we await US inflation report due for release on Tuesday also the mkts will largely focus on the minutes from the April FOMC meeting due on Wednesday , If the minutes is dovish could keep the dollar pressured lower.
It is also important to keep notes on several speeches by Fed members scheduled next week with the most important being Dudley (voter, dovish) who speaks on Thursday which is expected to bring some volatility to the markets.
From technical and trend point of views the dollar index is currently trading uptrend above senkou span bull cross , chikou span is above the price curve , price is above kumo cloud and tenkan sen / kijun sen strong bull cross
I expect the dollar to be moderately bullish this week trading around 95.00 .
Weekly Trend change events (T.C.E) and impact
Technical development to watch on Aud cad and Usd sek
WEEKLY TREND CHANGE EVENTS
USD Consumer Price Index
( m/m|y/y )
USD U.S. Fed Releases Minutes from April 26-27 FOMC Meeting
AUD Employment Change
12 ............ 26.1
CAD Consumer Price Index
( m/m|y/y )
...|1.7% ........... 0.2%|1.3%
Aud cad remains in bearish territory after breaking strong support level at 0.9470 trading downtrend last week .
Non Major economic data were released from both Australia and Canada last week but the currency pair continued downtrend on weaker Australian dollar.
This week Aud cad is expected to continue downtrend as Australian dollar depreciate further. Major trend change event from both Australia and Canada will surely have a great impact on the mkt trend , AUD employment change will be due for release on Thursday , the monthly employment report from Australia is expected to show net monthly job gains of 12k, less than the previous month of 26.1k while The Australian unemployment rate is also expected to rise to 5.80% from 5.70%.
From Canada, Inflation data is due on Friday and CAD CPI (yoy) is expected to rise at 1.7% more than the previous of 1.3% . Generally If a weaker than expected report from Australia is released Aud cad will continue downtrend.
From trend perspective the currency pair is currently trading below senkou span bearish cross , chikou span is below the price curve , price below the kumo cloud and tenlkan sen / kijun sen strong bearish cross .
Aud cad may continue downtrend trading around 0.9300 , 0.9270 this week .
Usd sek strongly resumes uptrend on stronger US dollar , Major economic data from Sweden last week shows that April inflation did not offer any surprises as CPIF printed 1.4% and the CPI 0.8% y/y as expected .
This week the Usd sek may continue uptrend as there are Not much of trend change event due from Sweden during the week .
From trend perspective the currency pair is currently trading above senkou span bull cross , chikou span is above the price curve , price is also above the kumo cloud and tekan sen / kijun sen bull cross .
My technical forecast for the week remains at 8.3290.
As Ichimoku practitioner I will continue to take a look into the trending currency pairs from week to week and share my point of views about the mkts ,
This week I will keep watch on Aud cad and Usd sek considering Trend change events and impact, probabilities and potential trend directions for the week.