Welcome Back my friends, to a new Trading week.
This Week's Article will contain the Weekly Analysis View for this Week (16-20Th of January) for the Major Pairs: EUR/USD , GBP/USD , USD/CHF , USD/JPY , USD/CAD , AUD/USD and NZD/USD.
The analysis has been made on 4 Hours charts in Analogy with 35 Pips Constant Range Bars Charts / 15 Pips Constant Range Bars Charts (USD/JPY).
You can Read my first 2 Articles for this Month where I have explained the Constant Range Bars Charts (based only on volatility and Price Movement) and I have made an Analogy with Time Based Charts.

1) Introduction to Constant Range Bars Charts,
2) Constant Range Bars Charts in comparison with Time Based Charts.

I also think You should Read My 12 steps to Make a trade, 12 Solutions to Discipline Yourself as a Trader, before You can successfully use my Analysis in you trading.  

As You may Know from my Previous Analisys I use the following instruments for my Weekly Analysis:

- Pivot Points (Daily , Weekly , Monthly) - the Main Pivots, Supports and Resistences,
- Simple Moving Averages (30,50,100,200 SMA) Crosses,
- Fibonacci Retracements (38,2 ; 50 and 61,8),
- Trendlines,
- Channels,
- Support and Resistences,
- Candlestick Fromations - trading signals,
- Crosses between 5 and 13 EMA on 1H, 4H and daily charts - trading signals.
- I also use Volumes (VSA), for confirmation of the trading signals.


Let's Proceed with our Analysis.

1) EUR/USD - Weekly View (16-20) 4 Hours Chart in Analogy with 35 Pips Range Bars Chart.




Eur/Usd is moving in a Downtrend on 4Hours chart, and Has found support at 1,264(last Week support pivot) after the Standard & Poors Rating Downgrades Roumours and Releases on Friday.

- Bullish Probability could retrace the price above 1,272(Weekly Main Pivot confluence with Daily Pivot-Monday) and reach 1,280(Weekly R1 confluence with 100 SMA and Downtrendline). This is an important Key-Level, which, if it would be broken, would take price further to 1.285(Resistence) and 1,297(Weekly R2, confluence with 200 SMA and 23,6 fibonacci retracement). This Key-Level holds the trend on 4 Hours chart.

- Bearish Probability without retracement would have to Break 1,264(support from last week) again and reach 1,2554(Weekly S1 Pivot) and further to 1,246(Weekly S2), before an important bullish retracement.

 


2) GBP/USD - Weekly View (16-20) 4 Hours Chart in Analogy with 35 Pips Range Bars Chart.




The price has a Bearish Movement inside a Bearish Channel, and has found support at 1,527(last Week Support pivot and Main support on higher time frames). The 30,50,100 and 200 Simple moving Averages confirm the Downtrend.

- Bullish Probability for a retracement could Break 1,534(Weekly Main Pivot confluence with 23,6 Fibonacci and Channel resistence) and Move further to 1,539(Fibonacci 61,8 retracement) and 1,545(Weekly R1 Pivot),confluence with Downtrendline and 100SMA) or even further to 1,550(200SMA confluence with 38,2 Fibonacci Retracement). This Key-Level could show signals of a trend Reversal for the higher Time-Frames.

- Bearish Probability without retracement would break 1,527(Support from last Week) and move further to 1,519(Weekly S1 Pivot) and 1,508(Weekly S2 Pivot), before a Bullish retracement.

 


3) AUD/USD - Weekly View (16-20) 4 Hours Chart in Analogy with 35 Pips Range Bars Chart.

  


Price is Moving in an Uptrend confirmed by the 30,50,100 and 200 Simple Moving averages on 4 Hours Chart.

- Bullish continuation without retracement should break the Main downtrend line and reach 1,0389(Weekly R1 Pivot). It could retrace to 1,0267(Weekly Pivot) first, and then continue the Upside Move to Weekly R1. Furhter resistence at 1,0499(Weekly R2) could be the Key-Level for a Bearish Retracement.

- Bearish Retracement should break down 1,0267(Weekly Pivot confluence with 100SMA and Uptrend Line) and continue further to 1,0156(confluence between 200SMA and Weekly S1 Pivot). this Key-Level holds the Trend on 4Hours chart. Price could  continue further to 1,0034(Weekly S2) and then turn around to north for a Bullish retracement and an Uptrend Resume.

 


4) NZD/USD - Weekly View (16-20) 4 Hours Chart in Analogy with 35 Pips Range Bars Chart.

 


The trend is Long and confirmed by the Simple Moving Averages, 30,50,100,and 200 SMA on 4 hours chart.

- Bullish Probability could reach 0,8016(Weekly R1) , retrace to Uptrend Line around 0,789(50SMA confluence with Weekly Pivot) and then resume long to 0,81(Weekly R2). This level could be the Key for a retracement back to the Uptrend Line.

- Bearish Probability should have to Break 0,789(Key-Level confluence between Uptrend Line, Weekly Pivot and 50SMA) and fall further to 0,781(confluence between 100SMA and Weekly S1) to reach 0,774(200SMA) and  0,768(Weekly S2). From this Key area price should retrace Long.

 


5) USD/CHF - Weekly View (16-20) 4 Hours Chart in Analogy with 35 Pips Range Bars Chart. 




USD/CHF price is moving inside an Uptrend Channel on 4 Hours Chart, confirmed by the 30,50,100 and 200 SMA.

- Bullish continuation without a Retracement could rise to 0,961(Weekly R1 Pivot) and move even further to 0,969(Uptrend Channel resistence confluence with Weekly R2 Pivot) before a Bearish Retracement.

- Bearish Probability could retrace to 0,951(Weekly Pivot confluence with 30 and 50SMA), break the level and move further South to 0,9437(100SMA confluence with Weekly S1 and Uptrend Channel Support Line).Under this Key-Level price could reach 0,938(200SMA) or even 0,933(Weekly S2). from this area price should retrace Long.

 


6) USD/JPY - Weekly View (16-20) 4 Hours Chart in Analogy with 15 Pips Range Bars Chart.




Price looks like it has resumed the Downtrend on the Daily and Weekly Time-Frames, Charts and started a Downtrend on 4 Hours chart, confirmed by the Simple Moving Averages. Price has already gone Bearish to 76,70(Weekly S1). But there is a substantial risk of a BOJ intervention against JPY, this week or the next weeks, corraborated with an intervention from the SNB against CHF. Imagine how we could predict the CHF/JPY pair with the two interventions in the same time.

- A Bearish Continuation could take price Lower to 76,48(Weekly S2), and move further this week sideways, inside a congestion area  between Weekly S1 and Weekly s2, with a possibility of a False Bearish Breakout to 76,40.

- Bullish Action would break 76,89(Key-Level, confluence between Secondary downtrend Line, 50SMA and Weekly Pivot Line), move upside to 77,10(100SMA confluence with Weekly R1) and higher to 77,28-77,40 area (confluence between Main downtrend Line, 200SMA and Weekly R2).


 


7) USD/CAD - Weekly View (16-20) 4 Hours Chart in Analogy with 35 Pips Range Bars Chart.

 


Price is Moving Sideways on the 4 Hours Chart.

- Bearish Probability would break 1,015(Weekly S1 confluence with Uptrend Line) Pivot and move further to 1,005(Weekly S2 Pivot). From this level it could retrace Long back to the Uptrend Line - now resistence.

- Bullish Probability could rise to 1,023(Weekly Main Pivot confluence with 200SMA) and move further to 1,027(Downtrend Line) and 1,032(Weekly R1). This could be a False Breakout  and price could Retrace Back down.

  


Thank You for the Precious time it has taken You to read this Article.
I'm waiting for your Feed-Back (Positive or Negative) to also see Your view for the Major Pairs.

Disclaimer: Please Take responsability for Your own trading decisions.

To Your Success,
Doctortyby (Tiberiu Rus)
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