Welcome Back... this is the 4th Part of January's Major Pairs Weekly Analysis Series based on 4 Hours Time Frame charts and 35 Pips Constant Range Bars Charts. Last week my Major Pairs' Analysis has had
about 85-90% Accuracy for the Price Projection. As You know from my
previous analysis I make projections based on Price Action and
Technicals for both the Bullish and Bearish Probabilities. Check Out the
Success Ratio on My Price Projections for Last Week and then proceed to
Read My Analysis for Next Week (23-27th of January).
Read My 12 steps to Make a trade, 12 Solutions to Discipline Yourself as a Trader, before You can successfully use my Analysis in you trading.
I have Explained the Constant Range Bars Charts (based only on Price Movement and Volatility) in my first two articles fromt his Month:
1) Introduction to Constant Range Bars Charts,
2) Constant Range Bars Charts in comparison with Time Based Charts.
This week's Article will contain the Usual analysis for the Major Pairs on 4 hours charts and 35 Pips Range Bars Charts (Updated through Comments Throughout the Week for the 1 hour Charts) for: Eur/Usd, Gbp/Usd, Aud/Usd, Usd/Jpy, Usd/Chf, Usd/Cad, Nzd/Usd.
I use the following instruments in my Analysis:
- Pivot Points(Daily, Weekly, Monthly), supports and resistences,
- Simple Moving Averages (30,50,100 and 200),
- Fibonacci Retracements,
- Trendlines and Channels,
- Candlestick Formations,
- Volumes Analysis.
As You now Last Week was a clear example of the Myth "Sell the Roumour, buy the Fact" at Least for Eur/Usd and the other correlated pairs (like Usd/Chf and Gbp/Usd). But if We follow the Fundamentals the Rise of the Euro could be temporary, and should be followed by a "Waterfall" in the near Future.
In this Week Analysis I have included the Projections from Last Week to see the Level of Accuracy straight from the Charts.
1) Eur/Usd Weekly View (23-27th of January), 4 Hours chart in analogy with 35 Pips Constant Range Bars Chart.
Last Week Eur/Usd price has moved on the Long side, reaching the 200SMA resistence on 4 Hours Chart, confluence with 23,6% Fibonacci retracement Bullish and Last Week's Weekly R2 Pivot - 1,299 Key-Level.
Bullish Probability could first retrace close to 1,283(confluence Between Weekly Main Pivot, 100SMA and 38,2% Fibonacci Retracement Bearish from last week), and then continue upside, breaking the 1,295(200SMA) and continue Long to 1,304(Weekly R1 Pivot) and further to 1,321(Key-Level, confluence between Weekly R1 Pivot and 38,2% Fibonacci Retracement Bullish). This could be a great level to Short for a Lower retracement, or a trend Reversal for the Short Term Uptrend.
Bearish Probability should have to break the 1,283(Key-Level confluence between Weekly Main Pivot, 100SMA and 38,2% Fibonacci Bearish) and Continue Further to 1,268(Weekly S1 Pivot confluence with Downtrend Line Support) or even 1,2625(Last Support from Last Week). If this Level will be Broken price could Reach 1,247(Weekly S2 Pivot) and Then Retrace Upside to the Last Support.
2) Gbp/Usd Weekly View (23-27th of January), 4 Hours chart in analogy with 35 Pips Constant Range Bars Chart.
Bullish Probability could first retrace to 1,547(confluence between Weekly Main Pivot Line and 100SMA on 4 Hours Chart) and then Break Long 1,550(Key-Level confluence between 200SMA , Downtrend Line, 61,8% Fibonacci Retracement Bullish and Monthly Pivot) and Move upside to 1,565(confluence Between Main Downtrend Line and Weekly R1 Pivot). Further, Price could even reach 1,576(Weekly R2) before it would retrace Down back to the trendline.
Bearish Probability under 1,550(Key-Level, confluence between 200SMA, Downtrend Line, Monthly Main Pivot Line and 61,5 Fibonacci) could also Breach through 1,547(confluence between Weekly Pivot and 100SMA) and reach first target at 1,539(Key-Level, confluence between 38,2% Fibonacci, 50SMA and Main support on Higher Time Frames).The Bearish Continuation from this level could take price to 1,536(Weekly S1 Pivot), further to 1,533(Fibonacci Retracement 23,6%), and even reach 1,527(Main support). Price could Make a False Break-Out to 1,517(weekly S2 Pivot) and Retrace Back Long.
3) Aud/Usd Weekly View (23-27th of January), 4 Hours chart in analogy with 35 Pips Constant Range Bars Chart.
Aud/Usd is Moving in an Uptrend confirmed by the Simple Moving Averages (30,50,100 and 200 SMA on 4 hours Chart).
Bullish Probability. Price could rise to 1,055(Weekly R1 Pivot) and then retrace Back to 1,045(Monthly R1 Pivot) and 1,040(Weekly Main Pivot Line confluence with the Uptrend Line) . From here Price could resume the Uptrend and reach again 1,055(Weekly R1 Pivot) , break it and go further to 1,064(Weekly R2 Pivot) , and then retrace Back down.
Bearish Probability could break 1,040(Key-Level, confluence between Uptrend Line and Weekly Pivot), fall to 1,032(confluence between Weekly S1 Pivot and 100SMA) and further to 1,024(confluence between 200SMa on 4 Hours Chart, Uptrend Line and Downtrend Line on Higher Time Frames). Price could form a False Break-out to 1,016(Weekly S2 Pivot) and then retrace Back up.
4) Usd/Chf Weekly View (23-27th of January), 4 Hours chart in analogy with 35 Pips Constant Range Bars Chart.
Bullish Probability. Price has found support at 0,9336(Monthly Main Pivot Line) and could Break upside 0,942(Weekly Main Pivot Line confluence with 200, 100 and 50 SMA on 4Hours Chart) and move further upside to 0,953(confluence between Weekly R1 and Downtrend Line). If it will Break 0,958(Uptrend Line now resistence) it could reach 0,968(Weekly R2) before retracing back down.
Bearish Probability should have to break 0,9336(Monthly Pivot) and 0,9300(Support) to reach 0,926(Weekly S1) and 0,915(weekly S2) before a bullish retracement or an Uptrend Continuation.
5) Usd/Jpy Weekly View (23-27th of January), 4 Hours chart in analogy with 15 Pips Constant Range Bars Chart.
Usd/Jpy has resumed the Downtrend on Higher Time Frames and has retraced Last week back to the Main Downtrend Line.
Bullish Probability could Break the Downtrend Line around 77,345(Key-Level, confluence between weekly R1 and 200SMA on 4 HOurs Chart) and continue upside to 77,717(Weekly R2 Pivot) before a Bearish retracement back to the DownTrend Line.
Bearish Probability could Break 76,95(Weekly Main Pivot Line close confluence with 30,50 and 100SMA on 4Hours Chart) and then Continue to the next support at 76,575(Weekly S1 Pivot confluence with secondary Downtrend Line). From here we could see a Sideways Move between the two Pivots, with a possible False Breakout to 76,177(Weekly S2 Pivot).
For Nzd/Usd and Usd/Cad I will post only the Charts and Projections. The explanations will follow Later this evening in the Comments section of the Article.
6) NZD/USD Weekly View (23-27th of January), 4 Hours chart in analogy with 35 Pips Constant Range Bars Chart.
7) USD/CAD Weekly View (23-27th of January), 4 Hours chart in analogy with 35 Pips Constant Range Bars Chart.
Disclaimer: Please Take responsability for Your own Trading decisions.
Thank You for reading My analysis. Feel Free to comment.
To Your success,