Greetings dear traders in the Dukascopy Community. This week we will watch the Key Levels on the 4 Hours charts for the Major Pairs: Eur/Usd (Fiber), Gbp/Usd (Cable), Usd/Chf (Swiss Franc), Usd/Jpy (Yen). After we will identify the main Key Levels that we have to watch for the Price Action Movement, we will be able to compose the bullish, bearish and mixed scenarios charts.

   First of all You have to read the article that explains the Key Levels that I use in my Technical Analysis, to better understand the probabilities scenarios formation.

   The main  instruments that we use for our analysis are :
  • Monthly Pivots (Main, S1, S2, S3 and R1, R2, R3),
  • Weekly Pivots (Main, S1, S2, S3 and R1, R2, R3),
  • Simple Moving Averages - SMA - 30, 50, 100 and 200,
  • Fibonacci Retracements,
  • Supports and Resistences,
  • Trendlines and Channel Trendlines (During the Trends and Sideways Movement).
   I strongly believe that a technical analyst cannot predict the future Price Movement with high accuracy based only on the Hystorical price movement. That is why I propose multiple scenarios in my Analysis, Bullish scenarios, Bearish scenarios and Mixed Probabilities (when the Key Levels fail). All these probability scenarios have in common the Key Levels that show certain Supports and Resistences for the Price Action. But in my opinion, a successful trader has to be prepared both for Key Level confirmation or failure, and has to be able to trade all the clear Probability Scenarios. This is my belief and I will continue my path until I will find a clear proof that I am wrong.

   Let's proceed with our weekly view analysis:

1). - a) Eur/Usd - 4 Hours Chart (08.05.2012) - Bullish Probability Key Levels:
  • 1.300 - 1.303 area - confluence between the hystorical level and support from 16th of April and the Monthly S1 Pivot, (2nd Level Key Level),
  • 1.307 - 1.308 area - confluence between the main Weekly Pivot and the Friday close which formed a Gap on Sunday, (1st Level Key Level),
  • 1.318 - 1.320 area - Important confluence between the Monthly Main Pivot, the Weekly R1 Pivot and the 200 SMA, (2nd Level Key Level),
  • 1.325 - dynamic resistence from the Downtrend line,
  • 1.339 - 1.341 - Important resistence, confluence between the Monthly R1 Pivot, the Weekly R2 Pivot, the two dynamic resistences from the secondary Uptrend lines, and the Resistence from 3rd of April, (2nd Level Key Level).
1). - b) Eur/Usd - 4 hours Chart (08.05.2012) - Bearish Probability Key Levels:
  • 1.295 - Last Support from Sunday,
  • 1.285 - 1.282 area - confluence between the Weekly S1 Pivot and the Monthly S2 Pivot.

   Probability Scenarios Charts:

  • Bullish and Bearish Probabilities:
   

  • Mixed Probabilities:


  


2). - a) Gbp/Usd - 4 Hours Chart (08.05.2012) - Bullish Probability Key Levels:
  • 1.618 - confluence between the Weekly main Pivot and the 30 and 50 SMAs, (2nd Level Key Level),
  • 1.624 - confluence between the Weekly R1 Pivot and the Resistence from the 1st and 2nd of May, (1st Level Key Level),
  • 1.630 - hystorical level and resistence from the 30th of April,
  • 1.636 - Weekly R2 Pivot.
2). - b) Gbp/Usd - 4 Hours Chart (08.05.2012) - Bearish Probability Key Levels:
  • 1.611 - confluence between the Monthly main Pivot and the 100 SMA, (1st Level Key Level)
  • 1.605 - confluence between the Weekly S1 Pivot and the support from the 3rd of April, (1st Level Key Level),
  • 1.597 - 1.600 area - Important confluence between the Weekly S2 Pivot, the 200 SMA, the hystorical level and the support from the 13th of April and 27th of March, (2nd Level Key Level),
  • 1.592 - Monthly S1 Pivot,
  • 1.587 - Weekly S3 Pivot,
  • 1.582 - Supports from the 5th, 10th and 16th of April. (2nd Level Key Level).

   Probability Charts:

  • Bullish and Bearish Probabilities:
  

  • Mixed Probabilities:


 


3). - a) Usd/Chf - 4 Hours Chart (08.05.2012) - Bullish Probability Key Levels:
  • 0.919 - 0.921 area - confluence between the Weekly Main Pivot, the Monthly R1 Pivot, and the Resistences from the 6th, 9th and 10th of April, (2nd Level Key Level),
  • 0.925 - Resistence from the 16th of April,
  • 0.927 - Resistence from Sunday,
  • 0.934 - 0.936 area - Important confluence between the Weekly R1 Pivot and the Monthly R2 Pivot, (1st Level Key Level).
3). - b) Usd/Chf - 4 Hours Chart (08.05.2012) - Bearish Probability Key Levels:
  • 0.918 - Friday close, and the close of the Gap from Sunday opening,
  • 0.911 - Important confluence between the Monthly Main Pivot, the Weekly S1 Pivot, the cross between the 100 and 200 SMAs, and the Support from April 12, (2nd Level Key Level)
  • 0.905 - Support from the 1st of May,
  • 0.900 - Hystorical level and the Support from the 3rd of April, (1st Level Key Level)
  • 0.896 - Confluence between the Monthly S1 Pivot and the Weekly S2 Pivot, (1st Level Key Level).
Probability Charts:
  • Bullish and Bearish Probabilities:


  • Mixed Probabilities:


 


4). - a) Usd/Jpy - 4 Hours Chart (08.05.2012) - Bullish Probability Key Levels:
  • 80,00 - 80.12 area - Important confluence between the Weekly Main Pivot, the Hystorical level, 50% Fibonacci Retracement from the Daily Chart, and the cross between the 30 and 50 SMAs, (2nd Level Key Levels),
  • 80.30 - 80.40 area - confluence between the Weekly R1 Pivot and the Resistence from the 16th of April, maybe even a future confluence with the 100 SMA (2nd Level Key Level),
  • 80.99 - 81.00 area - Important confluence between the Monthly Main Pivot, the Weekly R2 Pivot, future confluence with the 200 SMA, and 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement from the Daily Chart, also a resistence from the 13th of April,(2nd Level Key Level)
  • 81.38 - Weekly R3 Pivot,
  • 82.25 - confluence between the Monthly R1 Pivot and the 23.6% Fibonacci from the Daily chart,(1st Level Key Level)
4). - b) Usd/Jpy - 4 Hours Chart (08.05.2012) - Bearish Probabilty Key Levels:
  • 79.70 - Supports from the 1st and 6th of May, (1st Level Key Level)
  • 79.43 - Weekly S1 Pivot,
  • 79.15 - 79.05 area - confluence between the Weekly S2 Pivot, and the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement from the Daily Chart, (1st Level Key Level)
  • 78.68 - 78.46 area - confluence between the Weekly S3 Pivot and the Monthly S1 Pivot, (1st Level Key Level)
Probability Charts:
  • Bullish and Bearish Probabilities:
 

  • Mixed Probablities:


 

This is all for this week. Watch for the Fundamentals on Thursday.

Disclaimer: Please take full responsability for your own trading decisions.

To your success,
Doctortyby - Tiberiu

Translate to English Show original