In this article, I want to explain strategies and thoughts about FUNDAMENTAL CONTEST. Winning in this contest is not easy, and you should consider many elements. First of all, In the following chart I illustrate factors which are important in case of winning and predicting contest (this is our plan) then I explain each section with the help of charts, tables and pictures.


FRIENDS’ LIKES) this factor will help you to increase your score. In Dukascopy community there are lots of kind individuals whom you can ask for likes, and they will probably put likes for you. Sometimes you must like them in return (this is thoroughly fair). So this is easy but needs a little effort. Also it has a privilege to find friends from all over the world.


YOUR OWN PREDICTION) for participating in fundamental contest you should have both your own idea and your analysis. This is the base of your work. In this section I usually use the FOREX FACTORY website (http://www.forexfactory.com ) which gives me valuable information about economic news. Firstly, for each news there is a description which define the effect of news on currency. Here is a case in point:
Usual Effect Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency Released quarterly, about 55 days after the quarter ends;


Why Traders
Care
It's a leading indicator of economic health - businesses are quickly affected by market conditions, and changes in their investment levels can be an early signal of future economic activity such as hiring, spending, and earnings;
If you think actual will be more than forecast, it is good for currency (you can use previous and forecast data). Also if forecast is by far more than previous and the currency don’t receive its impact yet, it will have a great probability to receive the effect sooner or later. Such analysis depends on your experience. (I must say this market is not definitive so every possibility will occur). Also, this website gives you a historical news chart. Looking at the chart, it is more probable that we reach the forecast and perhaps above the forecast (it seems there is no way for that). So we should interpreting such data.
(In the chart blue is actual and brown is forecast)
There are also a large number of websites which you can use them in order to analyzing and predicting much more efficient. For instance, in the following chart, one website (http://www.tradingeconomics.com) predicts the news by its own economic model. So it is useful to consider such elements.


TECHNICAL ANALYSE)
this one is based on your technical analysis knowledge and experience about that particular currency which related to the news. For example, by a simple strategy, RSI divergence in oversold and overbought level one hour before news in 15min time frame. In the chart below, it is expected that cad-jpy will be bullish ,and if before the news it was bearish I would hit bullish button with high confidence because the news perhaps become a good reason to put the price in favor of my technical forecast.


Ms. /Mr. A STRATEGY)
it is like mirroring in social trading contest, use this section after forecasting by your own ability then if the result of your prediction is similar to the result of this section, press the bullish or bearish button with much more confidence. I recommended that without your own prediction don’t read this section. This is just kind of verification, but nice verification. For this strategy I need Excel and Dukascopy contest data.

The table above shows the first week of our one year period. Here is the result of top 20 in Dukascopy contest. You can see Ms. / Mr. A is highlighted with blue (Ms. / Mr. A is the best predictor). We also put our attention to other 4 winners (pink colour). We do this for all weeks from last 12 months up now. Also we need to have some others data like correct/incorrect prediction, points for comment that Dukascopy staff give them and etc. After that, merge data for each individual for over last 12 months like following table:

(Why multiply by number of participation? Because we don’t need someone who participate in one contest and predict all correctly). So by sorting X column and Point column separately, we will find that who is the best forecaster and commenter over past 12 months. So as a strategy we can consider Ms. / Mr. A (best one) predictions and comments. It is useful to read his/her comments and also what will be predicted by him/her. After that, we can also consider top 5 trend to see if it is their term to predict correctly or not.


IN the chart above, for week 24 our best forecaster in Dukascopy fundamental contest (Ms. / Mr. A1) do not predict accurately and his forecast is below the trend, also our best forecaster’s trend(linear regression) become descending (so it is time to forecast accurately). I want to say that, ‘I don’t expect Ms. / Mr. A predicts wrongly for two/three consecutive weeks so I rely on him much more for next week.’ Also A4 and A2 are above their uptrend but still they are among top 5. I mean if they are below their trend it is unusual because I don’t expect A1 forecast wrongly and have a descending trend as he is our best forecaster. This section is just a verification for your own prediction. This one may be highly affected if A1 won’t participate in the contest or doesn’t have any strategy and forecast by chance but still it could be a good consideration.

Right to decide) in this section, giving you a suggestion that don’t forecast your last two news until one hour before the news. This will give you a leverage. How? For example your rank is 2 and some others from rank 3 to rank 6 with similar correct predictions following you. And your last prediction is in contrast with all of them and if your prediction become false, your rank will be 6 and you win nothing. But if you have had your last news prediction you can predict like them and maintain your rank 2(you decide and control ranking). Also it could help you in another way, for example your rank is 2 and your followers can’t reach you if you predict your last forecast wrongly, but if your difference with the first rank is low you could be the first. How? It will probably happen if you predict opposite to the first rank. Perhaps it comes true (it is 50% -50% chance, without losing your rank 2, but perhaps reach rank 1 by 50%), have your chance. It also help you predict more efficiently because the chart will show you better when its time is close to the time of news.

Finally, who is Ms. / Mr. A? What do you think?
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