BRENT



CHART SCALE: Weekly


INDICATORS: Parabolic Sar, Money Flow Index, Linear Regression Slope


RESISTANCE LEVELS: 50.298 - 52.913


SUPPORT LEVELS : 46.603



PAIR ANALYSIS :




Brent W1 chart have shown a bearish/trendless tendency as indicated in fig 1, the pair candle close around the middle Bollinger Band. In this TF the linear regression slope and the cycle seems to support with a greater probability of having a bullish retracement even if the market tendency should prefere the sellers.
This W1 analysis for that reasons suggest a bullish indication with W1 first objective around the 52.913 zone.The W1 objective could integrate the SMA_100. A bearish objective in a W1 scale could be considered at the 46.603 price zone.
On a D1 scale the candle close between the SMA_200 and the SMA_100. In this context the trend is considered with a bullish rally. The objective for this tf could be indicated at the SMA_100 objective zone. In this scale the Volume analysis shows a no positive derivative but in value still greater than the October 2016 (reference system for a trendless/indecision indication). So technically also the D1 scale suggest a bearish analysis with a possibility of a bullish retracement.
Indications for a bearish retracement can be evaluated considering a Volume value around the October 2016 average, a positive behavior of the candle low and a turn of the MFI index (bullish crossing of the MFI value can be approximately indicated at 25-30).
A support for the bearish objective could also considered in view of the fundamental analysis which there is the possibility of a FED decision to a +0.25% in the interest rate value. In this way could suggest the USD buying opportunity.















SILVER


CHART SCALE: Weekly


INDICATORS: Parabolic Sar, Money Flow Index, Linear Regression Slope


RESISTANCE LEVELS: 18.25


SUPPORT LEVELS : 16.7



PAIR ANALYSIS :




XAG/USD W1 chart have shown a bearish trend as indicated in fig 1 (Bearish trend w1), the pair (differently from the Gold chart) did not cross radically the Fibonacci level at the 17.3 zone while crossed the support line indicated at the elliptical figure. The week closed around the Fibonacci technical 17.3 level (Fig 2). That closing in the W1 chart did not reached the Low Bollinger Band, the price level crossed bearish the SMA_9 and the Volume are in positive derivative (23/10/2016, 30/10/2016, 07/11/2016) Fig 3. The prices bearish crossed the SMA_200 and the SMA 9 but not the SMA_100 and SMA_50. Considering the Gold analysis in https://www.dukascopy.com/fxcomm/technical_analysis/?action=blog&nickname=foreignexchange&post_id=117977 it seems that the behavior of the commodity has been technically from the gold in consideration of the Fibonacci objective level reached around the closing at 17.3. This could support in this TF a different (greater) probability of having a secondary bullish retracement even if the market tendency should prefere the sellers. In D1 scale it could be possible to have another different argument compared with the Gold analysis, the Low Bollinger Band is not berish crossed at the past candle close (only the low candle crossed it). This W1 analysis for that reasons suggest of a bearish indication with W1 first objective around the 1212-1210 zone.The W1 objective could integrate the SMA_100 and the Fibonacci retracement line, fig 2. A second bearish objective in a W1 scale could be considered at the 1077 price zone. On a D1 scale the candle close below the Low Bollinger Band as indicated in fig 4 and also below the SMA_200, SMA_100, SMA50, SMA_9 and with a bearish Parabolic Sar dynamics. In this context the trend is considered with a bearish domination. The objective for this tf could be indicated in the 17.01 zone. In this scale the Volume analysis shows a no positive derivative but in value still greater than the October 2016 (reference system for a trendless/indecision indication).
























GOLD


CHART SCALE: Weekly


INDICATORS: Parabolic Sar, Money Flow Index, Linear Regression Slope


RESISTANCE LEVELS: 1369.983


SUPPORT LEVELS : 1200 - 1210.01


PAIR ANALYSIS :


XAU/USD W1 chart have shown a bearish trend as indicated in fig 1 (Bearish trend w1), the pair crossed the support line indicated with the first elliptical figure and also crossed bearish the 1251 price level that represented the Fibonacci level (considering the low at 29/11/2015).
The week closed around the technical 1225 price level. That closing in the W1 chart did not reached the Low Bollinger Band and the SMA_100. The prices crossed bearish the SMA_50 and the Volume are in positive derivative.
This W1 analysis for that reasons suggest the possibility of a bearish indication with W1 first objective around the 1212-1210 zone.
The W1 objective could integrate the SMA_100 and the Fibonacci retracement line, fig 2. A second bearish objective in a W1 scale could be considered at the 1077 price zone.
On a D1 scale the candle close below the Low Bollinger Band as indicated in fig 3 and also below the SMA_200, SMA_100, SMA50, SMA_9 and with a bearish Parabolic Sar dynamics. In this context the trend is considered with a bearish domination. The objective for this tf could be indicated in the 1210 zone. In this scale the Volume analysis shows a no positive derivative but in value still greater than the October 2016 (reference system for a trendless/indecision indication). So technically also the D1 scale suggest a bearish analysis.
Indications for a bullish retracement can be evaluated considering a Volume value around the October 2016 average, a positive behavior of the candle low and a turn of the MFI index (bullish crossing of the MFI value can be approximately indicated at 25-30).
The possibility of a bullish secondary retracement can support the 1251 zone level objective.
The candle low and the candle close can suggest the design of two new trendlines that could support the analysis as indicated in fig 4, the suggestion integrate the possibility of a slightly bullish retracement in correspondence of the second lower support line.
In this analysis it is assumed a bearish objective to 1210.1 area. A support for the bearish objective could also considered in view of the fundamental analysis which there is the possibility of a FED decision to a +0.25% in the interest rate value. In this way could suggest the USD buying opportunity. The Fibonacci lines in Fig 5 can also indicate the possible secondary retracement.
Figure 6 can describe an hypothetical possible pattern.



Good Trading




FIGURE 1 Trendlines






FIGURE 2





FIGURE 3






FIGURE 4




FIGURE 5





FIGURE 6

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