- Market sentiment is 52% bearish
- 60% of pending orders in 1000-pip range are set to BUY gold
- Bullion is propelled by fundamental events
- Gold has revealed new ascending patterns
On Thursday the main new information in regards to the yellow metal prices is the reveal of new patterns. Namely, two ascending channels have bene spotted and are set to guide the commodity price higher.
The US Census Bureau revealed on Wednesday that US retail sales data did not meet the expectations, instead the gauge fell by 0.1% in March, continuing the slowdown in the first quarter of 2018.
This was the third consecutive month of declines in the US retail sales since April 2012. One of the main reasons for the negative retail sales data is the decrease in household spending on motor vehicles and other big–ticket items.
US data package
The data releases of this busy week continue. As it was previously explained another US macroeconomic data release will occur at 12:30 GMT. The data will be covered by the Dukascopy research team live on the bank's webinar platform.
However, it is almost impossible to make a forecast for this data release, as there will be three sets of data coming out simultaneously. Namely, the Empire State Manufacturing Index, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and Unemployment Claims are set to be released together.
In addition, Friday will also have a notable data release that the Dukascopy research team will cover on the bank's webinar platform.
XAU/USD approaches trend line
The yellow metal has made no significant advances during the previous session, as any attempts to move below the 1,322.90 area was restricted by the strong support of the 55-, 100– and 200-hour SMAs.
The pair has managed to appreciate during the past few sessions following a test of the 1,315.00 level. A notable climb, however, has not yet followed.
Thus, it is likely that the pair fails to edge higher this week, especially given the fact that it has approached a downward-sloping trend-line guiding the rate during the previous four weeks.
By and large, the rate might remain stranded between this line and the SMAs for several hours. However, downside risks should eventually prevail, thus sending the pair closer to the 38.20% Fibo at 1,316.65.
Hourly Chart
On the daily chart one can notice that the recent resistance encountered is not just represented by the upper trend line of the short term channel. Near that level the support line of the previously active dominant ascending channel pattern is acting as a resistance.
Daily Chart
Markets short the metal
SWFX market participants continue to short the metal, as traders are 52% bearish. Meanwhile, pending commands have become slightly bullish, as 51% of all set up orders were to buy.
OANDA traders remain slightly bullish, as 55% of open positions were long on Thursday. In addition, Saxo bank traders are going long in 51% of all cases.