- Market sentiment is 53% bearish
- 55% of pending orders in 1000-pip range are set to SELL gold
- Bullion's price can't find support
- The metal trades below the 1,320 mark
The short term situation on the XAU/USD charts has become increasingly complicated. The situation has not changed since Friday, as clear short term patterns can't be made out on the bullion's charts.
The Bureau of Labour Statistics simultaneously released 3 reports on Friday: average hourly earnings, non-farm employment change and unemployment rate, from which only the first 2 had a notable impact on the exchange rate.
The move up in the currency pair was caused by lower-than-expected average hourly earnings data, while the downtick was driven by better-than-expected non-farm employment change figures.
Busy week and empty Monday
Today there are no notable data releases scheduled. If there are events entered into the economic calendar, one can easily ignore them, as none of them could cause a correction in currency exchange rates.
However, look forward to Tuesday, as the first notable event of the week is set to occur during the day. Namely, the US CPI is set to be published at 12:30 GMT.
XAU/USD bullish this week
As apparent on the chart, the yellow metal was trading along the breached one-month channel during the first part of Friday.
The pair subsequently breached the falling wedge and appreciated up to the 1,325.00 mark. It has since remained in a narrow range, stranded between the 55-, 100– and 200-hour SMAs.
In accordance with the senior channel, Gold should continue moving upwards this week; this scenario is also confirmed by bullish technical indicators. This session, however, might show limited gains, given the rate's failure to accelerate after the 55– and 200-hour SMAs were breached.
Nearest northern barriers are provided by the monthly PP or the 23.60% Fibo at 1,329.15 and 1,325.65, respectively. In case the aforementioned SMAs are breached, a move below 1,315.00 is unlikely.
Hourly Chart
On the daily chart one can notice that the recent resistance encountered is not just represented by the upper trend line of the short term channel. Near that level the support line of the previously active dominant ascending channel pattern is acting as a resistance.
Daily Chart
Markets short the metal
SWFX market participants continue to short the metal, as traders are 53% bearish. Meanwhile, pending commands remain slightly bullish, as 51% of all set up orders were to buy.
OANDA traders remain slightly bullish, as 54% of open positions were long on Monday. In addition, Saxo bank traders are also going long in 53% of all cases.