- SWFX traders are 52% bullish
- 70% of pending orders in 500-pip range are set to SELL the gold
- Gold price reached new support at 1,261.45
- Upcoming Events: US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
The main result of the previous trading session is that the pair managed to break through the bottom boundary of a one-year long ascending channel. Subsequently, it made an attempt to recover. However, there is a great chance that it will be neutralized by the resistance zone near 1,271.00.
The Institute for Supply Management stated that its non-manufacturing PMI for the US fell to 57.4 in November, compared with 60.1 in October, suggesting that the services sector's growth slowed due to moderation in both export and new orders. Another release showed that the country's trade deficit widened to a nine-month high in the same month amid higher oil prices and lingering deficits with Mexico and Canada, despite the strong increase of exports to the both countries.
ADP employment data
At 13:15 GMT the Automatic Data Processing will release an update on the American employment change. Although this event as marked as very impactful in many economic calendars, it is not expected to cause high volatility in the markets.
XAU/USD breaks one-year long channel up
During previous trading session the buck appreciated against the gold by 0.88%. The downfall was mainly driven by optimistic expectations of the upcoming talks between the House and Senate. An interesting detail is that yesterday's mid-day plunge was almost identical to drop that happened seven days ago. This, in turn, means that movement of the pair is now guided by a medium-term descending channel, which came in place of the long-term dominant ascending channel. This transformation is also supported by traders' sentiment, which becomes less and less bullish. As for today, the upper target is supposedly located at the 1,274.00 mark. However, it is unlikely that bulls will manage to gain a foothold there due resistance zone located near 1,271.00 as well as the falling 55- and 100-hour SMAs. Moreover, the pair experiences pressure from another minor descending channel.
Hourly Chart
Daily chart illustrates that the exchange rate made a breakout from a one-year long ascending channel after all. However, the further plunge is questionable, as the pair needs to cross the 200-hour SMA that lays along the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 1,268.00. If the rate makes a fully-fledged rebound, it might mean that the dominant channel has actually sustained and needs only a minor readjustment. In the opposite scenario, the fall of the rate is likely to continue until the 1,255-1,260 levels.
Daily Chart
Markets sentiment remain bullish
Traders of Dukascopy are neutral on valuation of the gold, as 52% of open positions are long. Accordingly, 52% of pending commands are to buy the commodity.
OANDA traders are bullish, as 72% (+1%) of open positions are long, compared to previous trading day. In the meantime, SAXO bank traders are less bullish, as 64% (+2%) of open positions are long.