- SWFX traders are 50% bullish
- 67% of pending commands are to buy the bullion
- The metal's price started the day's trading at 1,229.40
- Upcoming Events: EU Final CPI; US Empire State Manufacturing Index
The patterns of the XAU/USD charts have been broken by a fundamental change in the US. However, it was expected by Dukascopy analysts that a surge will occur, which means that the benefits have already been taken by the clients of the bank.
Consumer prices in the United States were flat, while retail sales dropped for the second consecutive month in June. The Labour Department reported on Friday that its CPI registered an unchanged reading in the observed month, missing market expectations for a 0.1% rise, as the cost of mobile services and gasoline declining. On a yearly basis, the index surged 1.6% in June, continuing to ease from February's 2.7%, when it showed the strongest gain in five years.
Minor data releases
The week is set out to start quietly, as there are two data releases scheduled for the day, which are worth being mentioned. At 9:00 GMT the final EU CPI is scheduled to be published. In the second half of the day the US Empire State Manufacturing Index will be out at 12:30 GMT. However, both of these data releases have rarely shown any kind of impact on the financial markets.
XAU/USD breaks patterns
Fundamental data released and covered on Friday by the Dukascopy research team on the live webinar platform has forced the yellow metal's price higher. The US Consumer Price Index data sets, which were released as much lower than expected, were the cause of the jump. As a result of the jump the junior and dominant channels were broken. However, it could be observed on Monday morning that the upper trend line of the ascending channel had begun to provide support to the commodity price. Due to these reasons combined it can be expected that the gold price will continue to surge. However, the situation all in all has to be reviewed fully, as the underlying strength of both financial instruments has changed.
Hourly Chart
The daily chart only reveals that there still might be a longer term downtrend. However, that would be found only in the review, which is most likely going to be published in the Trade Pattern Ideas section later in the day.Daily Chart
SWFX traders are neutral
Traders of Dukascopy have become neutral, as 50% of traders are bullish. However, 67% of trader set up orders are to buy the metal.
OANDA Gold traders remain with a bullish outlook, as open positions are 77.18% long on Monday. In the meantime, SAXO bank sentiment is 66.20% bullish.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Market participants foresee the price of gold being above 1,300 in three months
Traders who were asked regarding their longer-term views on gold during the last month expect, on average, to see the metal around 1,300 in October. Generally, 66% (+7%) of participants believe the price will be above 1,300 in ninety days.