Gold tests large scale pattern

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA

Since the middle of Wednesday, the yellow metal has traded between the 1,710.00 and 1,720.00 levels.

In the near term future, the metal could be pushed down by the resistance of the 55 and 100-hour simple moving averages.

Economic Calendar Analysis



On Wednesday, the US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change at 13:15 GMT will be on the headlines.

On the same day, at 15:00 GMT the US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI could cause a move.

On Friday, at 13:30 GMT the US will publish its monthly employment data. The release will consist of the Average Hourly Earnings, Non-farm Employment Change and Unemployment Rate.

Click on the link below to find out more about the data releases of this and other currency exchange rates.

XAU/USD short-term forecast

Instead of testing the support of the 1,700.00 level the price for gold began to trade sideways even before it was reached. Since the middle of Wednesday's GMT trading hours, the price has been fluctuating between 1,710.00 and 1,720.00. On Thursday, the bullion was being approached by the 55 and 100-hour simple moving average.

In the near term future, the price could be pushed down by the 55-hour simple moving average. In this case scenario the price would eventually test the support of the 1,700.00 level.

In the near term future, the price could be pushed down by the 100-hour simple moving average, which was approaching the price from above. A decline could test the support of the the 1,700.00 mark.

On the other hand, the SMAs resistance was pierced late on Tuesday. Namely, the SMA failed to push the price down. Due to that reason, the price could continue to trade sideways between 1,710.00 and 1,720.00.

Hourly Chart



On the daily candle chart, the pair has been testing the support of the large scale channel down pattern, which captures the metal's decline since the start of August.

In the case of the pattern's trend line holding, the price should retrace back up to the 1,763.74 level where a 50.00% Fibonacci retracement level was located at.

On the other hand, if the trend line fails to hold, the currency exchange rate could reach the 61.80% Fibo at 1,690.05.

Daily Candle Chart


Traders are long on gold

Since Tuesday, the sentiment on the Swiss Foreign Exchange was bullish, as 72% of open position volume was long.

On Thursday, 71% of volume was long. Note that the gold sentiment is largely bullish at all times due to long term holders.

Meanwhile, in the 1000-pip range around the metal's price the pending orders were 69% to buy the metal. The orders were 82% to buy on Wednesday.

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