Gold is highly volatile

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA

The decline of the yellow metal increased volatility, as at mid-day on Tuesday the price made a 1.38% retracement back up before almost immediately returning to previous low levels.

On Wednesday morning, the commodity price reached the early February low level at 1,785.00.

Economic Calendar Analysis



On Wednesday, at 13:30 GMT, the US Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales could cause a move. However, at the same time, the US Producer Price Index and Core Producer Price Index are set to be published.

If both data sets reveal a positive or negative surprise, compared to the market forecast, the impact could be combined. On the other hand, the data could contradict one another and cancel out the effect of an impact.

On the same day, at 19:00 GMT the FOMC Meeting Minutes PDF document will be released. Note that the impact of the meeting minutes occurs slowly not suddenly, as the market participants read and interpret the meeting minutes.

On Thursday, market participants are set to watch the weekly US Unemployment Claims at 13:30 GMT.

The week will end for the USD/JPY with the US PMIs at 14:45 GMT.

Click on the link below to find out more about the data releases of this and other currency exchange rates.

XAU/USD short-term forecast

The XAU/USD exchange rate has declined to the 1,785.00 mark.

If the support of the low level holds, the rate could retrace back up to the 55, 100 and 200-hour simple moving averages, which kept the price down since Friday. Moreover, the recent decline could have been partially caused by the resistance of the 200-hour SMA.

On the other hand, if the price declines below 1,785.00, the November low level of 1,765.30 could be reached.

Hourly Chart



On the daily candle chart, the metal has bounced off the resistance of the 55 and 200-day simple moving averages, which were located just above the 1,850.00 level.

Meanwhile, note that the closest by support on this chart was the November low level of 1,765.30 and a 50.00% Fibonacci retracement level at 1,763.75.

Daily Candle Chart


Traders remain long on gold

On Tuesday, the sentiment on the Swiss Foreign Exchange was bullish, as 66% of open position volume was long.

On Wednesday, the sentiment was 67% long.

Meanwhile, in the 1000-pip range around the metal's price the pending orders were 77% to buy the metal. The orders had not changed since Tuesday.

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